Tornado Warning 17, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are expected along a sagging cold front
  late this afternoon and evening. Very large hail (>3-3.5") and
  damaging winds will be the main threats although a tornado or
  two will also be possible.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
  and Friday with some potential for heavy rainfall resulting in
  flash flooding.

- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

We're still looking at a very active afternoon and evening as the
severe weather risk increases across much of North Texas. Latest
satellite imagery and surface observations show a well defined
dryline to our west (west of Abilene) and a nearly stationary
cold front along the Red River. The environment in the warm
sector (our area) remains very unstable and supportive of severe
storms to develop near and along the front as it pushes across
North Texas this afternoon and evening. The timing of the severe
storms hasn't changed much from previous forecast. We're still
looking at storms developing near/along the Red River from now
until ~5pm, pushing through the I-20 corridor between 5and 9pm,
and finally across our southern Central Texas counties through 1am.
Much of North Texas (including the DFW Metroplex) has the
greatest threat to see very large hail and damaging winds. While
the tornado threat is lower, we could still see a couple of
tornadoes especially in the evening hours as the low level winds
strengthen. That being said, we still want to reiterate that the
environment is very conducive for very large hail with a potential
to see hail greater than baseball size (potentially >3.5"). Make
sure to pay attention to the weather this evening and have
multiple ways to receive warnings. In addition to the severe risk,
areas of heavy rain may also result in flash flooding due to high
PWs and very efficient rainfall rates.

As the main cluster of storms move southeast tonight, northerly
winds will follow on the wake of the front with clouds spreading
overnight into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop tomorrow, mainly across Central Texas
where the front will slow down and become nearly stationary. We
can't rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms with hail
and isolated damaging wind gusts. Additionally, pockets of heavy
rain may also result in isolated flash flooding. A few
showers/storms may clip into portions of North Texas, but the
chances are lower (20-30%). Otherwise, expect cooler weather
tomorrow with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s across Central
TX.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The weather pattern will remain fairly active through the end of
the week as multiple rounds of showers and storms spread across
the region. Upper level disturbances on top of a very moist
environment will bring widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
starting Thursday night through the day Friday. The severe
weather risk remains low with this activity but the risk for
flash flooding will increase across the region given the saturated
soils. PW values are forecast to be between 1.5-1.8" which will
promote efficient rain producing showers and storms. Additional
average rainfall totals between 1.5 to 3 inches are forecast
during this period with isolated higher amounts possible. At this
time, areas across Central Texas currently have the best potential
to see these higher amounts, but even small changes to the axis
of heavy rain will change where those totals occur. Continue to
check back for forecast updates.

In addition to the widespread rain, we will be noticeably cooler
on Friday with highs only in the 50s/60s. A warming trend is
expected over the weekend but will still be well below normal
with highs in the 70s. The good news is that dry weather is
expected over the weekend as high pressure moves overhead and
pushes the moisture out of our area. The dry weather is expected
to continue into early next week with temperatures returning to
the 80s region wide.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Concerns...Thunderstorms including the potential for severe
weather later this afternoon into the evening. Low ceilings
return overnight.

Ceilings should continue to lift to VFR early this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are still expected to develop near and along the
front as it moves through the area. Not a lot of changes were
made to the timing of the storms impacting the DFW Metroplex
sites, with VCTS starting at 22Z and a TEMPO of TSRA between
23-01Z this evening. While some isolated activity may develop
before the broken line of storms, confidence in timing and
coverage is too low to include it in the TAF. In addition to the
lightning threat, some of the storms will be capable of producing
very large hail (greater than baseball size) and damaging winds.
This activity should be south of D10 after 03Z with northerly
winds expected through the night. While the potential for TS to
impact Waco is lower, we can't rule out some VCTS between 03-06Z.
Another round of MVFR ceilings will develop overnight into much
of the day Wednesday. We could also see some light precipitation
impacting some of the sites during the day Wednesday.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  60  71  61 /  60  60  20  20
Waco                92  66  74  63 /  20  30  50  40
Paris               81  58  71  57 /  70  60  30  20
Denton              88  56  69  57 /  60  40  10  20
McKinney            87  58  70  60 /  70  50  20  20
Dallas              90  61  73  62 /  60  60  20  20
Terrell             87  62  72  61 /  60  70  30  30
Corsicana           91  66  76  64 /  40  60  50  40
Temple              92  68  78  63 /  10  20  50  40
Mineral Wells       93  57  70  57 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1027 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

TXZ093-281600-
Grayson TX-
1027 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Grayson
County through 1100 AM CDT...

At 1027 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cartwright, or 11 miles southwest of Durant, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Grayson County, including the following locations... Carpenters
Bluff, Locust, and Preston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3390 9659 3388 9659 3385 9663
      3384 9663 3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650
      3378 9643 3373 9638 3371 9638 3372 9676
      3384 9678 3385 9678 3383 9677 3382 9676
      3384 9669 3392 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 262DEG 44KT 3390 9656

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Prater

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1028 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Saint Jo            33.72N 97.52W
04/28/2026                   Montague           TX   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Multiple trees and power lines down just
            north of Saint Jo, and roadways had to be
            cleared.

&&

JLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1030 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 AM     Hail             Nocona                  33.78N 97.73W
04/28/2026  M0.75 Inch       Montague           TX   Emergency Mngr

            Penny sized hail reported at Nocona General
            Hospital.

&&

JLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1149 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Hail             1 SSE Fate              32.93N 96.38W
04/27/2026  U1.75 Inch       Rockwall           TX   Public

            Exact Hail size was unknown, but the hail
            was large enough to leave holes in a metal
            roof on a property near the Brookshires in
            Fate.

&&

JLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     Hail             Mclendon-Chisholm       32.85N 96.39W
04/27/2026  M2.00 Inch       Rockwall           TX   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report. trained spotter reported 2
            inch hail near McLendon-Chisholm. Time
            estimated by radar. Time estimated by radar.

&&

Prater

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
236 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

TXZ100-101-282030-
Young TX-Jack TX-
236 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Young
and northwestern Jack Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Windthorst, or 13 miles east of Olney, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bryson, Antelope, Jermyn, and Loving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9867 3340 9842 3347 9842 3347 9831
      3346 9828 3337 9813 3314 9839 3339 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 306DEG 13KT 3341 9853

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger