Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend with
  highs in the 90s and peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Friday
  morning through Friday afternoon, primarily along and north of
  the I-20 corridor. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy
  rainfall will be the primary threats.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) look
  to return to the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Thunderstorms along a weak frontal boundary across south-central
Oklahoma have quickly diminished over the last couple hours as
they entered a very high CIN environment. Renewed development is
likely near and just north of the Red River later tonight into
early Friday morning as warm/moist advection increases into this
boundary. Most of North Texas is expected to remain dry through
sunrise. The current suite of high-resolution guidance is quite
bullish on scattered thunderstorms or a thunderstorm complex
propagating south-southwestward toward the I-20 corridor through
the morning and early afternoon hours of Friday along a rapidly-
moving outflow boundary. This solution would place scattered
thunderstorms in and around the Metroplex in the 11AM-2PM
timeframe. As always with these summertime convective setups, the
details that impact the placement and timing of thunderstorms are
small-scale and it will be tough to nail down a precise
timing/coverage of storms through midday Friday, so check the
radar before you head out the door Friday morning. Gusty winds up
to 40 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary
hazards.

Thunderstorm coverage will lessen as we get further into the
afternoon and evening hours, but we will need to monitor for
additional, very isolated development along remnant outflow
boundaries. This activity will pose a slightly more elevated
threat for isolated severe wind gusts as temperatures rise into
the low to mid 90s. Speaking of temperatures, if a barreling
outflow boundary occurs in the morning/early afternoon, many north
of I-20 may struggle to escape the 80s Friday afternoon. Those
south of I-20 will still see temperatures rise into the low to mid
90s with peak heat indices in the 100-107 degrees. A Heat
Advisory was considered for this afternoon across parts of the
Metroplex and south, but the potential for convection to keep
temperatures well below criteria is too high at this moment for an
issuance. However, if thunderstorm coverage remains more isolated
and outflow remains more localized, we could see several
locations along and north of I-20 approach Heat Advisory criteria.

Any lingering shower/storm activity will rapidly dissipate after
sunset Friday evening with mostly dry conditions continuing
through Saturday as weak ridging builds in behind this system.
Expect widespread afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s on
Saturday with heat index values peaking in the 100-107 degree
range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A big pattern change is expected toward the end of the weekend and
into early next week as broad troughing shifts over the Plains
allowing for a rather strong cold front by mid-June standards to
slide south into North Texas. Current guidance highlights
scattered to widespread showers and storms along and ahead of the
cold front approaching the Red River late Sunday morning. This
activity will gradually shift south as the cold front makes way
toward the I-20 corridor by Sunday afternoon/evening and
eventually Central Texas Sunday night. This boundary will provide
a focus for continued thunderstorm development into Monday,
primarily south of I-20 as mid-level shortwave impulses traverse
over this boundary amidst a very moist environment. Deep-layer
shear looks rather modest, so the severe threat will remain quite
low. However, the threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding will ramp up late Sunday into Monday, especially in areas
that experience training or slow-moving thunderstorms.

The effective cold front will likely stall somewhere in between
the Brazos Valley and the Texas Gulf Coast sometime Monday evening
with isolated to scattered storms continuing into Tuesday morning
across our far southeastern counties. Drier air will settle in by
Tuesday afternoon, effectively ending rain chances across most of
our forecast area. Increased cloud cover, rainfall, and northerly
winds will allow for a couple of "cool" days to start next with
current forecasted highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday and
Tuesday. Southerly winds return by Wednesday as do temperatures in
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

SCT to BKN 1.5-3 kft cigs currently overspread parts of North and
Central Texas including KACT and the Metroplex. Expect
intermittent MVFR cigs for the next few hours. An outflow
boundary/effective cold front currently extends from Wichita Falls
to southeastern Oklahoma with an ongoing storm complex northeast
of Paris. We are expecting additional isolated to scattered storm
development near that boundary later this morning into the
afternoon, some of which may approach the Metroplex terminals
after 17Z-18Z this afternoon. Some of the latest high-resolution
guidance is less bullish on thunderstorm potential this afternoon,
but with a boundary shifting into a very moist and moderately
unstable environment, there will likely be at least isolated to
scattered development through the day. Otherwise, expect south
winds at 8-12 kts through much of the TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  78  95  78 /  30  10   0  10
Waco                92  76  93  77 /  20   0   0   0
Paris               87  75  91  76 /  50  10  10  40
Denton              90  78  94  78 /  40   0   0  30
McKinney            90  78  93  78 /  40  10   0  30
Dallas              92  79  96  79 /  30  10   0  10
Terrell             91  77  94  77 /  30  10   0  10
Corsicana           93  76  96  77 /  20   0   0   0
Temple              92  75  93  76 /  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       91  76  95  76 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld