Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas. Localized
  heavy rain and flash flooding are likely overnight into Sunday.

- In addition to the flooding potential, a few strong storms
  capable of gusty winds and hail are possible through the early
  morning hours.

- Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the
  upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees
  each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Potentially significant flash flooding remains the primary
concern through the next ~12 hours as a slow-moving upper low and
near record PW values combine to support very heavy rainfall.

Overnight satellite imagery depicts a strong upper low over the TX
Panhandle and western Oklahoma which continues to eject
northeastward. It's strong ascent is interacting with anomalous
Gulf moisture with PW values near or exceeding 2", and the
resultant widespread convective activity with tropical-like
thermal profiles is capable of very heavy rainfall on the order of
2-3" per hour. Flooding issues will be exacerbated by slow storm
motions and the tendency for cells to train in a SW-NE fashion.
While there is still some uncertainty as to where the epicenter of
the rainfall maximum and flooding impacts will be, recent high-
res guidance including HREF PMM QPF has been targeting locations
roughly along and just south of the I-20 corridor and near/west of
I-35 through early this morning. Areas in this vicinity should
have the highest potential to experience the localized totals of
6-8" that have been advertised in the ongoing Flood Watch.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur overnight through
sunrise, but additional new development is still possible mainly
north of I-20 through the morning as the upper low continues to
peel away to the northeast. This could support more localized
flooding in parts of North Texas even into the early afternoon
hours before all activity eventually vacates the area later in
the day. There will be some clearing of cloud cover that occurs
this afternoon while temperatures rebound to around 90 degrees. A
tranquil overnight period will follow with lows mostly in the mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Following the departure of the upper low, ridging aloft will build
in to begin the week. This will lead to a return of above normal
temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions for the following few
days. However, there is a slim chance for seabreeze convection to
encroach on our southeastern zones on Monday afternoon where
small PoPs will be indicated in the public forecast. High
temperatures in the mid 90s will combine with upper 60s and lower
70s dewpoints to yield heat index values around or exceeding 100F
each afternoon, and this will likely be the first extended stretch
of 100+ heat index values for many locations so far this summer.

During the second half of the week, global guidance continues to
indicate the potential for a weak frontal boundary to sag
southward into the Southern Plains. This could result in a couple
rounds of convection possibly just to our north which may spread
into parts of North Texas via outflows on either Thursday or
Friday, and the forecast will indicate PoPs of 20-30% for this
scenario. The presence of some cloud cover and occasional
afternoon precipitation may be able to reduce highs back to
around 90 or even into the upper 80s for a day or two heading
towards next weekend depending on exactly how this scenario
unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A couple isolated storms remain in the vicinity of the Metroplex
airports as of 1030z but are quickly waning in intensity. Overall,
a lull in convection near the TAF sites is expected for the next
coupe of hours before additional activity tied directly to the
core of the upper low traverses parts of North Texas from mid
morning through early afternoon. This will likely serve as the
final opportunity for convection near the TAF sites, mainly
between 14-18z, before all activity shifts east of the terminals
this afternoon. It's possible that much of this activity may even
stay north of the airports and only briefly cause impacts directly
at the terminals. VFR and gradually clearing skies will prevail
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening before a swath
of MVFR stratus races northward around 06z tonight within breezy
southerly flow. Several hours of MVFR stratus can be expected
through Monday morning as a result.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  76  92  76 /  50  10   0   0
Waco                91  77  91  75 /  10   0  10   0
Paris               86  74  90  75 /  60  10   0   0
Denton              90  76  91  76 /  60  10   0   0
McKinney            88  76  91  77 /  60  10   0   0
Dallas              90  77  92  77 /  50  10   0   0
Terrell             88  76  91  75 /  50  10   0   0
Corsicana           89  76  92  75 /  20   0   0   0
Temple              90  76  91  74 /  10   0  10   0
Mineral Wells       91  75  92  74 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141>145.

&&

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
402 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

TXZ105-121>123-070930-
Kaufman TX-Van Zandt TX-Hunt TX-Rains TX-
402 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Hunt,
northeastern Kaufman, northwestern Van Zandt and west central Rains
Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 402 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Terrell City Lake, or 9 miles northeast of Terrell, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Quinlan and Lake Tawakoni around 405 AM CDT.
  West Tawakoni, Hawk Cove, and Lake Tawakoni State Park around 410
  AM CDT.
  East Tawakoni around 420 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Elmo, Alsa, and Oak
Ridge.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 500 and 510.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 9586 3261 9629 3286 9629 3305 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0902Z 242DEG 26KT 3281 9616

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Prater

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
436 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 AM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Terrell           32.74N 96.27W
06/07/2026                   Kaufman            TX   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Terrell VFD reported flooding in Terrell
            with vehicles stuck in high water at TX 34
            and High Street.

&&

AJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
440 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

TXZ105>107-071015-
Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Delta TX-
440 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Hunt,
western Hopkins and southwestern Delta Counties through 515 AM CDT...

At 440 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Campbell, or near Commerce, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Commerce and Cumby around 445 AM CDT.
  Cooper Lake around 455 AM CDT.
  Cooper Lake State Park around 500 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Miller Grove,
Neylandville, Lone Oak, Fairlie, Pecan Gap, South Sulphur, Ridgeway,
Peerless, and Martin Springs.

This includes Interstate 30 between mile markers 98 and 130.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 9548 3298 9594 3317 9609 3340 9591
      3341 9586 3346 9586 3346 9583 3347 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 235DEG 30KT 3315 9591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Prater

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
445 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     Flash Flood      Mesquite                32.77N 96.60W
06/07/2026                   Dallas             TX   Public

            Delayed report. A video on X showed flood
            waters inside a residential garage in
            Mesquite.

&&

Prater

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
657 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Venus             32.41N 97.14W
06/07/2026                   Johnson            TX   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report. Emergency manager relayed
            multiple road closures south of Alvarado,
            including CR616, CR212, CR109, and CR108.

&&

Prater

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