Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of
  tonight through Thursday. A few storms may be strong with small
  hail, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding.

- A relative lull in storm activity is expected Friday and
  Saturday with highs near 90 and rain chances generally under
  30%.

- Sunday into next work week will potentially see another uptick
  in daily rain/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The MCV that developed due to overnight convection has exhibited
quicker movement towards the north than previously thought. This
will put the disturbance into Oklahoma by the afternoon hours with
subsidence (preventing convection) over a much more widespread
area of North and Central Texas. Furthermore, the remnants of the
overnight cold pool in addition to anvil debris advected over the
region from storms ongoing in South Texas will act against diurnal
destabilization of the boundary layer and the subsequent
development of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Given the
developments in convective trends the last few hours, have opted
to decrease rain chances across the region by roughly 10-30%. A
few isolated showers and storms will still remain possible later
today, but it is becoming increasingly likely with time that most
will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

As of midnight, a line of thunderstorms extended from South Texas
into the DFW Metroplex. These storms will slowly move towards the
east into Wednesday morning with trailing light rain lingering
across much of the area east of the I-35 corridor. While there is
moderate uncertainty with the evolution of this line, recent
short term guidance has started to converge on a solution
resolving an MCV which lingers over portions of East and Northeast
Texas until midday Wednesday. This potential MCV will have
significant implications on thunderstorm potential Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The most likely scenario is locations along
and east of the I-35 corridor remain under cloud cover associated
with this mesoscale upper-level disturbance. Light rain will
meander around this region with very isolated (10-20% chance) non-
severe thunderstorms possible by the PM hours. Further west (west
of the I-35 corridor), subsidence associated with the MCV
circulation will greatly inhibit storm chances. While a stray
shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out (10-15% chance),
probabilities have substantially decreased from the prior
forecast. Widespread cloud cover and remnants of the cold pool
generated from the Tuesday night storms will help keep highs below
average; generally in the low 80s.

By Wednesday night, short term guidance is generally aligned in
low shower and thunderstorm coverage across portions of North and
Central Texas (10-30% chance). The greatest potential will be
along and north of the US-380 corridor where synoptic scale
forcing for ascent will persist in association with the primary
upper-level vort max as it slowly drifts from the Texas Panhandle
into Oklahoma.

Though severe thunderstorms are not expected, there will be the
potential for localized flash flooding during this time period.
PWAT values in the 1.5" to 2.0" range in addition to very slow
storm motions (generally 10 mph or less) could realize a
localized flash flooding threat despite isolated storm coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

...Thursday...

By Thursday, the upper-level system responsible for Tuesday and
Wednesday thunderstorms will still likely remain over portions of
the South Great Plains. Uncertainty is too high to discuss
specifics on storm timing and location due to the absence of any
surface fronts and substantial variance between guidance. However,
isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) will be
possible during the afternoon and evening hours with the greatest
chances north of I-20 and east of I-35 where forcing for ascent
and low-level moisture should be greatest. Further west,
shortwave ridging is expected to build into much of the southern
High Plains. This pattern will generally promote warmer
temperatures above the ABL in addition to weak synoptic scale
subsidence, thus greatly reducing the potential for any
precipitation. This will be most notable along and west of the
US-281 corridor where current rain chances are around or below
20%.

With continued high PWATs and a moderately unstable airmass in
place (SBCAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg), any thunderstorm that
is able to develop will potentially be on the stronger side,
bringing the risk for gusty winds, small hail, localized flash
flooding and/or frequent lightning.

...Friday and Saturday...

By the start of the upcoming weekend, ridging aloft will build
more fully into the region bringing a relative lull in rain
chances (generally less than 30%). The advection of higher
heights aloft in conjunction with stronger diurnal heating due to
reduced cloud cover from subsidence in the mid and upper-levels
will result in a brief period of near or slightly above normal
temperatures (highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s). Abundant
boundary layer moisture will help mitigate the potential for
higher temperatures during the afternoon and evening hours Friday
and Saturday.

Embedded in the upper-level ridging pattern, subtle shortwave
disturbances will be embedded in the flow aloft generally
traversing from the southern High Plains, into Oklahoma/Kansas,
and then down into the southern Mississippi River Valley.
Localized forcing for ascent with these small disturbances during
peak ABL destabilization in the afternoon and evening hours may
be sufficient for a stray shower or thunderstorm along or north
of the I-20 corridor. The greatest chances for storms during this
time frame will be near the Red River. In this area, storms in
Oklahoma may develop upscale into a complex in which case the
corresponding cold pool may allow convection to propagate into far
North Texas in what would otherwise be an unfavorable environment
for thunderstorms. Storm evolution should be strongly influenced
by residual cold pools and outflow boundaries from convection
Thursday into Thursday night. As such, confidence in storm
potential, coverage, timing, etc. will remain low during this
timeframe likely until Thursday.

...Sunday and Next Week...

By the end of the upcoming weekend and into next work week, upper
level ridging will be shunted towards the east into the Deep South
as weak troughing and southwesterly flow aloft build in from the
west. At the surface, southerly winds will continue to reinforce
abundant boundary layer moisture keeping a humid and unstable
airmass across the region. This pattern will again favor daily
rain and thunderstorm chances, though there is no confidence in
exact coverage, location and timing as of now. While shear looks
to be very weak in the absence of any strong upper-level
disturbances, diurnally driven surface based instability will
again bring the potential for a few strong thunderstorms with the
risk of gusty winds, small hail, isolated flash flooding and/or
frequent lightning. Increased low-level moisture and cloud cover
from convection in the region will likely keep high temperatures
near or slightly below average (in the 80s).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The primary source of uncertainty this forecast period will be
wind direction. With winds AOB 06 kts and a slight preference in
short term guidance to resolve south flow, have opted to prevail
this in the TAFs. However, wind directions will be somewhat
erratic today with periods of light northerly winds (5 knots)
occurring intermittently. Confidence in fuel-alternate MVFR cigs
this morning has also decreased, so opted to TEMPO these cigs in
while prevailing 2-3kft cigs at Metroplex TAF sites. Confidence in
low cigs remains high enough at KACT to prevail BKN013 for this
TAF issuance.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  69  86  71 /  40  20  30  20
Waco                81  68  84  70 /  30  10  20  10
Paris               78  67  82  67 /  60  30  50  40
Denton              81  67  84  68 /  40  20  30  20
McKinney            80  68  84  69 /  50  20  40  20
Dallas              82  69  87  71 /  50  20  30  20
Terrell             80  68  85  68 /  60  20  40  20
Corsicana           82  70  87  71 /  50  20  30  10
Temple              82  69  86  71 /  20  10  20   0
Mineral Wells       82  65  85  66 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah