Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
618 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will affect portions of East and Northeast
  Texas this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
  are possible.

- Storm chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend,
  including the threat for some severe weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Convection has been unable to initiate along a diffuse dryline in
the absence of any supplemental lifting mechanism, despite strong
instability and minimal mixed-layer inhibition in the warm
sector. It is more likely that convection will remain absent from
the CWA until existing thunderstorm activity and/or outflows from
eastern Oklahoma convective clusters eventually move
southeastward into our northeastern counties in the next few
hours. East/Northeast Texas will have the only noteworthy
thunderstorm chances the rest of the evening and tonight, some of
which are likely to maintain severe hail/wind threats before
eventually weakening. As the dryline retreats westward after
sunset, renewed southeasterly flow overnight will support a
resurgence of low stratus and perhaps areas of fog heading into
Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

As of this early afternoon (1:45pm), North and Central Texas
remains precipitation free, with clear skies west of I-35 and
partly to mostly cloudy skies in the east. The difference in
weather conditions in the west vs the east is a byproduct of a
sharpening dryline that extends from north to south just west of
the I-35 corridor. The sharpening of the dryline is in response to
a surface low near Wichita Falls, slowly moving to the east. Dew
points in the moist sector are now in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
West of the dryline, dew points will continue to decrease through
the afternoon bottoming out in the 40s and lower 50s.

The aforementioned surface low is inducing southwesterly flow
around 5000 feet, spreading a layer of warmer air across the
region. With no synoptic scale features inducing strong forcing
for ascent today, we'll rely on the mesoscale features to generate
today's thunderstorm activity. As the area of low pressure
advances east later this afternoon, capping should diminish along
a corridor that extends from southeastern Oklahoma to Northeast
Texas, including the areas of Bonham to Paris and Sulphur Springs.
By 7pm today, the areas just mentioned will be at the peak of
today's expected instability, just as the capping inversion
weakens. With around 3500 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates and
about 40 kts of effective shear, scattered severe storms will
likely migrate from Oklahoma southeastward. Although 0-1 SRH isn't
overly strong, the presence of a surface boundary along with high
instability will promote rapid vertical stretching, enhancing
low-level vorticity. For that reason, the threat for tornadoes
cannot be discounted this evening. If you're to the northeast of
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, pay close attention later today
as there is the potential for a few significant supercells to
impact your location.

The potential for thunderstorm development near the I-35 corridor
is lower compared to East Texas, however, it is not 0%. The lower
potential for storms is due to the persistence of the capping
inversion which is not expected to completely erode today. There
is a 10% chance an isolated severe storm develops and produces
mainly large hail. Storms this evening will shift to the
southeast, exiting most of our East Texas counties by midnight.

Weather conditions overnight and the first half of Saturday will
likely be precipitation free with breezy southerly winds. The
precipitation-free conditions will be short-lived as yet another
round of strong to severe storms is expected in the afternoon.
Similar to today, the greatest chance for severe weather will be
north and northeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex where the
cap is expected to weaken in the afternoon in response to a
shortwave moving from west to east across Oklahoma. Having said
that, with over 5000 J/kg of instability ahead of the dryline
extending well into Central Texas, any pockets of weaker capping
could produce isolated thunderstorm activity. Any storm that
develops, even if it is isolated, is expected to become severe
given the very high instability and sufficiently strong effective
shear. Although large hail will be the main concern tomorrow,
damaging winds and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Thunderstorm activity will diminish after after midnight tomorrow
as the remaining thunderstorm activity moves east of our region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

As if this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon wasn't enough, we'll
have to deal with isolated thunderstorm activity once again on
Sunday. The dryline will extend from north to south along the I-35
corridor with 4000 J/kg and 40-50 kts of effective shear
developing by the afternoon. A shortwave will be ejecting out of
Northern Mexico in the afternoon, providing increased forcing for
ascent. The limiting factor across much of the region will be a
strong capping inversion that is going to keep any thunderstorm
development low. Storm chances along the I-35 corridor will remain
capped at 10%.

Heading into the next work week, the weather pattern will remain
unsettled as we remain under the influence of a trough to our
west. Periodic shortwaves will emerge out of Northern Mexico,
providing daily afternoon storm chances Tuesday onward. Although
severe weather specifics remain a bit uncertain, current guidance
continues to suggest there will be plenty of instability and shear
for updrafts to work with. Expect additional details regarding
next week's storm potential in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR skies will prevail through the evening while all convective
activity remains east/northeast of the Metroplex airports.
However, some convective impacts may still occur after 00z across
far eastern portions of D10. Surface winds are currently in the
process of veering westerly at Metroplex airports, and they will
eventually go light northerly by 02-03z this evening as a diffuse
surface low propagates across North Texas. Flow will return to
southeasterly overnight into Saturday morning, and this will
result in a resurgence of low-level moisture culminating in
MVFR/IFR cigs. This stratus will persist from ~10z through 16-17z
before scattering to VFR by midday. Sufficient signal in recent
guidance warrants a Tempo of IFR cig heights, although these
conditions may need to be prevailed depending on trends
overnight. A stronger southerly breeze can be expected during the
daytime tomorrow with occasional gusts of 20-25 kts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this evening across Northeast
Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  90  69  91 /  10  20  20  10
Waco                69  90  69  90 /  10  10  20  10
Paris               62  84  65  83 /  60  20  70  20
Denton              62  90  67  91 /  10  20  20  10
McKinney            64  89  68  88 /  10  20  40  10
Dallas              67  92  69  92 /  10  20  20  10
Terrell             66  88  68  88 /  20  20  30  10
Corsicana           70  90  71  91 /  10  10  20  10
Temple              69  90  69  91 /  10  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       62  92  66  95 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley

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