Tornado Warning 23, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

060 
WWUS53 KFSD 010155
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
855 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

SDC083-125-010215-
/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260601T0215Z/
Lincoln SD-Turner SD-
855 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN TURNER COUNTIES...

At 854 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Centerville, or 8
miles northwest of Beresford, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Lincoln and southeastern Turner Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 9695 4322 9695 4326 9678 4315 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 286DEG 9KT 4318 9689 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

BP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
655 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop late this
  afternoon into early evening. Large hail up to half dollar and
  damaging winds to 60 mph would be the main hazards. A Level 1
  of 5 risk for severe storms covers most of the area for this
  threat.

- Similar to today, a conditional Level 1 of 5 risk for severe
  storms covers the forecast area Monday afternoon. The chance
  of development looks lower than today, but if a storm can
  form, large hail and isolated damaging winds could occur.

- High chances (50-80%) for rain will persist through the bulk
  of next week. However, severe storm chances continue to look
  low (near 5% or less) through next week. The better chances
  for rainfall appear to be Wednesday in central SD and
  Wednesday night into Thursday area wide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An active pattern is expected over the next several days, although
severe weather appears to remain a minor threat. Patchy heavy rain
may play the bigger role with each event.

For this afternoon and tonight, a small corridor of low level
convergence and lift will focus near and just east of the James
Valley. Clouds have cleared through early afternoon and temperatures
have risen a touch. Along with this temperature rise is a turn in
the surface winds to a more south to southwest direction vs.
southeast. This is what is aiding in this low level convergence. The
latest model soundings indicate something around 1500-2000 J/kg CAPE
but weak, disorganized shear. This suggests severe weather should
remain limited, but maybe a cell merger or two could produce a
couple of updrafts strong enough to support hail to half dollar
and wind gusts to 60 mph. Stronger storms will likely drift
east or northeast at about 15 mph, so fairly slow moving. With
this slower storm motion in mind, will need to keep an eye on
the locally heavy rain potential. A handful of the latest hi-res
models are showing small areas of 1-3" of rain with this
development. One area to keep a closer eye on will be parts of
Western Lake county, Northeast McCook and western Minnehaha
where 1-3" of rain fell late last night.

The question becomes what will drive development; will it be diurnal
heating, which would allow updrafts to start developing around 19-
21z, or will it be the weak wave which moves into the area closer to
0-3z this evening. The latest HRRR and Nam output agree with the
later start times, with the Nam indicating a stronger cap and less
development, while the RRFS and RAP kick off development a little
sooner with weaker capping. With the clearing that we are seeing in
central SD towards the James Valley we may see some development by
mid to late afternoon as destabilization is more likely. Suspect
some development between about 5-6pm.

One last thing to watch out for, if we can get mid to late afternoon
development, the LFC are marginally low and a weak convergent
boundary should be in parts of south central and southeast SD, so an
isolated funnel or two will be possible.

While a marginal risk for severe weather is in place for Monday,
confidence in the chances of development are very low. A capping
inversion may win out and for now CAPE values only running around
1000 J/kg with continued weak shear, albeit a little bit better than
today.

Another wave moves through Tuesday but weak shear and weak
instability suggest if anything can develop severe weather is very
unlikely.

Wednesday into Thursday looks like the better chance for more clouds
and better rainfall chances. Broad southerly warm advection looks to
bring in some weak elevated instability as low pressure tracks east
through ND. For now not anticipating all day rainfall but should see
off and on chances Wednesday and Thursday as this low tracks by to
the north.

Friday into Sunday will see periodic weaker waves move through the
area with a continuation of relatively weak flow aloft. This
continued weaker shear environment should keep severe weather
threats very limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 651 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
across the area through the early evening hours. Low stratus is
expected to develop tonight over southwest Minnesota and eastern
South Dakota, especially near and east of I-29. Highest confidence
location for this MVFR to IFR stratus regarding the TAF sites will
be at KFSD. Winds will turn light through the overnight hours, and
this could also result in fog, though confidence is a bit lower in
development. Additional showers and storms may develop Monday
afternoon, but low confidence in development and location of these
storms preclude mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
133 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-011845-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
133 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms is in place for late this
afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
develop late this afternoon between the James River and I-29, then
progress eastward through the evening. A very isolated stronger
storm could produce hail to half dollar and wind gusts to 60 mph.
Locally heavier rain will also be possible with small swaths of one
to three inches of rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low chance for storms again Monday afternoon. Similar to
today, confidence in storm development is low. However, if storms
can develop, isolated damaging winds and large hail would be the
main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
724 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     Rain             Emery                   43.60N 97.62W
05/31/2026  M3.50 Inch       Hanson             SD   Law Enforcement

&&

PR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
738 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Hail             2 WSW Humboldt          43.63N 97.12W
05/31/2026  M1.00 Inch       Minnehaha          SD   Trained Spotter

            In addition to hail up to the size of
            quarters, heavy rainfall was reported.

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
740 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     Hail             4 SW Hurley             43.24N 97.15W
05/31/2026  E1.00 Inch       Turner             SD   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
805 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     Hail             2 WNW Davis             43.27N 97.04W
05/31/2026  E1.00 Inch       Turner             SD   Public

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
818 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Hail             Wakonda                 43.01N 97.11W
05/31/2026  E0.88 Inch       Clay               SD   Trained Spotter

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
823 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     Tornado          4 W Wall Lake           43.53N 97.03W
05/31/2026                   Minnehaha          SD   NWS Employee

            Radar confirmed tonado.

&&

TRM