Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

515 
WWUS53 KFSD 071004
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
504 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

SDC035-071013-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-260807T1030Z/
Davison SD-
504 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4356 9796 4367 9796 4368 9788 4380 9784
      4383 9761 4353 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 266DEG 23KT 4363 9791 

$$

SDC061-071030-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-260807T1030Z/
Hanson SD-
504 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR HANSON COUNTY...

At 503 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Alexandria, or 
9 miles southeast of Mitchell, moving east at 25 mph. A second storm 
was located just east of Fulton, also moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Alexandria, Fulton, Farmer and Emery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4356 9796 4367 9796 4368 9788 4380 9784
      4383 9761 4353 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 266DEG 23KT 4363 9791 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JH

552 
WWUS53 KFSD 071016 RRA
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
516 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

SDC061-071026-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-260807T1030Z/
Hanson SD-
516 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HANSON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
northeast Hanson County until 600 AM CDT.

&&

LAT...LON 4356 9796 4367 9796 4368 9788 4380 9784
      4383 9761 4353 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 263DEG 23KT 4384 9756 

$$

JH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will continue through mid-morning. Locally dense
  patches could lead to visibilities as of a mile or less at
  times.

- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue
  through late morning especially across southwestern MN be
  possible. IF a stronger storm develops, golf ball sized hail
  and damaging winds up to 60 mph would be the primary threats.

- A somewhat unsettled weather pattern with low predictability
  will begin to bring daily risks for thunderstorms into next
  week. A few of these may be strong to severe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Taking a look across the area, the forecast remains on track with
the main focus being on the developing fog and showers. Starting
with fog, elevated dew points and a slightly warmer air mass aloft
have led to some advection fog developing this morning. While
coverage is mostly patchy, there could be a few locally dense areas
mainly along our waterways and low-lying areas where visibilities as
low as 1 mile will be possible. With this mind, make sure to drive
with caution when making those morning commutes. Shifting to our
precipitation chances, we continue to see scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms developing this morning mainly in response to
a nocturnal LLJ and bits of isentropic lift ahead of a cold front.

While we could see this activity fester across parts of the area
over the next several hours, most guidance continue to highlight
portions of southwestern MN as the main area of concern for anything
stronger as the cold front approaches. IF a stronger storm or two
can get going, the main concerns would be large hail up to golf ball
size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Nonetheless, with the fairly
progressive nature of the front; the window for any stronger
activity would be narrow maybe 2-4 hours at most with the focus
being between 6am-10am. Lastly, should see quieter conditions return
into the early afternoon with highs mainly in the low to upper 80s
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Weak troughing sliding through the region this
afternoon has kept a narrow corridor of mid-lvl moisture stretching
from northern Nebraska into western Minnesota. This moisture,
confined within an area where H850 mb flow 30-40 knots, may
eventually lead to isolated high based showers or thunderstorms
later this afternoon. Confidence on development remains low, and
will keep PoPs below 20% ATTM. Elsewhere, southerly winds are
increasing, finally mixing out low-stratus and fog. High
temperatures climb into the upper 80s west of the James River to the
lower 80s further east.

TONIGHT: Two concerns in the overnight period. First of all,
southerly winds should continue to transport low-lvl moisture
northward, pushing dew points into the mid-60s.  Should winds
weaken sufficiently and temperatures drops not be overly
impacted by widespread wildfire smoke aloft, then areas of fog
may once again develop along and south of I-90. HREF
probabilities focus a 70% probability of <1 mile visibility
along and southeast of a line from Yankton to Windom. However,
if the second concern we'll discuss next takes place, then those
fog probability may drop significantly.

That second concern is a risk for elevated convection by daybreak.
The pesky quasi-northwest flow has the potential to bring subtle mid-
lvl vorticity into the area by daybreak. Guidance is all over
the place, which is typical in this setup, suggesting either
minimal to no convection, or fairly widespread storm
development. From a parameter perspective incoming CAA AOA
850:700 mb will create a steepened mid-lvl lapse rate, but also
push MUCAPE over 2000 J/KG. Shear remains a bit marginal AOA 20
knots, suggesting convection may stay a bit less organized.
However analog soundings indicate potential for golf ball hail
with freezing levels near 11K ft AGL, with some modest mid-lvl
dry air also suggesting a few stronger wind gusts that may make
it through the stable boundary layer. If this threat develops
storms would push southeast with the mean flow and exit late
morning.

FRIDAY:  The initial morning convection will precede a cold front
that will push southeast during the day. Temperatures behind this
front will not be all that cool, with highs again climbing into the
lower to middle 80s. The rest of the day and evening will be quiet.
After midnight however, some guidance is showing another wave moving
through central SD and into NE.  Should this wave develop, there may
be sufficient convergence on the LLJ to induce scattered
convection in central and south central South Dakota after 3am.
Isolated hail will be the most likely risk with these storms.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY:  There remains quite a bit of uncertainty heading
into the upcoming weekend given the synoptic flow pattern.
Saturday morning convection should continue to push away from
the CWA in the morning hours, which would suggest stabilization
in the Tri-State area for the rest of the day. However the
nocturnal ignition of the LLJ would pose some risk for renewed
elevated storms into Sunday morning south of I-90. There seems
to be a bit more agreement by late Sunday into Monday as a
stronger wave moves through the Dakotas late in the evening.
Depending on the degree of instability in the region, this could
serve as a reasonable setup for a nocturnal MCS given the
intensifying 850mb southerly flow and increased mid-lvl
westerlies. Continue to monitor severe weather outlook risks
into Monday morning.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: There will really be no change in the forecast
into the middle of the week as the region remains under slight
northwesterly flow aloft.  This flow will keep a persistent risk for
daily convection, though with extremely low confidence and
predictability until a day or so before. Temperatures may fall
back slightly into the lower to middle 80s near the seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Areas of fog and low stratus are expected to develop through
the early morning hours. The best chance for dense fog will be near
and southeast of a KSUX to KSPW line, but widespread dense fog is
not expected as winds are a tad bit higher this morning than
compared to yesterday. Any fog should lift by mid-morning, with any
stratus eroding through the early afternoon hours.

Isolated showers may develop through the rest of the early morning
hours, but we do look to see some storms developing by daybreak
today near and east of I-29 and pushing east-southeast through
the morning hours. A cool front will move through the area from
northwest to southeast during the daytime today. This will turn
marginally breezy south to southwesterly winds to the north-
northeast as it passes through. Winds will diminish through the
evening and become light and variable at the end of the period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Samet

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
410 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

NEZ013-SDZ038>040-050-052>070-080915-
Dixon-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
410 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Nebraska, central
South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy fog will continue through mid-morning.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible over south-central
South Dakota tonight. Large hail will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An active pattern aloft will lead to periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some storms could potentially
become strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ014-SDZ071-080915-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dakota-Union-
410 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and southeast South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of fog will continue along and south of I-90 through mid-
morning. Locally dense patches could lead to visibilities of a mile
or less especially across portions of northwestern Iowa.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this morning with a
focus across southwestern Minnesota. IF a few stronger storms can
develop, golf ball sized hail and up to 60 mph wind gusts will be the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An active pattern aloft will lead to periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some storms could potentially
become strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.