Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

172 
WWUS53 KFSD 030017
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
717 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SDC067-083-087-099-125-030045-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-260703T0045Z/
Minnehaha SD-Lincoln SD-McCook SD-Turner SD-Hutchinson SD-
717 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINNEHAHA...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHERN
MCCOOK...TURNER AND NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

At 716 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Canistota to near Monroe to near Freeman, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Two rounds of 
         strong winds are expected within this warning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Lake Vermillion State Recreation Area, Marion, Canistota, and 
  Monroe around 720 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Parker, Montrose, Humboldt, Hartford, Wall Lake, Hurley, Chancellor
and Lennox.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sioux Falls.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4345 9758 4365 9761 4375 9697 4350 9685
      4327 9684 4327 9759
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 259DEG 31KT 4362 9735 4351 9728 4331 9738 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SG

771 
WWUS53 KFSD 030031
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
731 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SDC067-083-087-099-125-030045-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-260703T0045Z/
Minnehaha SD-Lincoln SD-McCook SD-Turner SD-Hutchinson SD-
731 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINNEHAHA...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHERN
MCCOOK...TURNER AND NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES...

At 731 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lake Vermillion State Recreation Area to 6 miles
west of Wall Lake to near Parker, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Hartford, Wall Lake, Humboldt, and Chancellor around 735 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Lennox.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sioux Falls.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4339 9741 4366 9752 4375 9697 4350 9685
      4327 9684 4327 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 259DEG 33KT 4364 9716 4353 9709 4337 9710 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms have already developed along
  and outflow boundary this afternoon. Large hail up to 2+
  inches and damaging winds to 70 mph are the main hazards with
  these storms. A tornado or two is possible as well.

- A second round of storms is expected this evening and night outh
  of I-90. These storms look to form into a line and be capable
  of damaging winds to 75 mph. An isolated line embedded
  tornado is possible as well.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is possible Friday
  evening and night. This second round of storms again looks to
  come in the form of a line. As of now, these storms look
  travel along the Missouri River Valley with damaging winds to
  70 mph being the main hazard.

- With multiple periods of thunderstorms in the region, flooding
  becomes a concern for any locations seeing multiple rounds of
  heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch has been issued for all of
  northwest Iowa through Friday morning.

- While severe weather is unlikely on July 4th, isolated to
  scattered showers and storms are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A complex convective evolution is expected for the rest of today,
including the evening and overnight hours, as multiple boundaries
will be in play. An outflow boundary from storms in North Dakota has
pushed into the area near and south of highway-14 corridor early
this afternoon. Thunderstorms, some of which are strong to severe
already, There is also a second boundary near I-90 that served as
the focal point for this mornings storms.

The first round of storms have already fired along the first outflow
boundary from the North Dakota storms. These storms look to affect
locations north of I-90, but especially along and near highway-14.
These storms will be in a favorable environment characterized by
effective shear values up to around 40 knots. Hodographs show a
little curvature in the lowest 0-3 km. But the bulk of the shear
will remain aloft as the right entrance of an upper level jet streak
begins to push off to the northeast. CAPE values will be more than
sufficient with MLCAPE values up to and exceeding 2,500 J/kg. DCAPE
will also be sufficient near to above 1,000 J/kg. Thus, Large hail
up to 2+ inches in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph will be the
primary hazards. A tornado or two is also possible should a storm
ride along the outflow boundary and efficiently ingest it's
helicity.

This round of storms will be coming to an end by the later evening
hours. However, another shortwave trough will be pushing into the
area, developing a second round of storms along the second boundary.
This second round looks to grow upscale into a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) and push eastwards across locations generally near and
south of I-90. With the upper level jet pushing away from the area,
overall vertical shear profiles will be beginning to weaken.
However, the low level jet will be strengthening which will allow
the MCS to maintain its strength through the overnight hours. Plenty
of elevated instability will be availability in excess of 1,000 to
2,000 J/kg. Vertical shear values will remain sufficient at 40
knots. 0-3 km shear will be a bit on the weak side with magnitudes
up to 20-25 knots. This shear vector may be oriented perpendicularly
off of the MCS which suggests that a tornado threat is possible.
Though this will depend on how the storms and their respective
orientation play out. DCAPE values will remain near 1,000 J/kg but
min to max theta-e difference value's will be low, down to about
-25K. Thus, damaging winds to 75 mph will be the main hazard.

Another round of storms is possible for the day on Friday. With the
previously mentioned shortwave trough east of the area, the daylight
hours for Friday look to be on the drier side due to subsidence on
the backside of the departing wave. Some isolated showers may
persist though. The next chance for strong to severe storms will
come on Friday evening and night. As of now, the latest hi-res
guidance is showing another MCS tracking near to down the Missouri
River Friday night. The environment looks to be more than sufficient
with instability values up to 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear
values up to 40-50 knots will coincide with the larger instability.
0-3 km shear will be stronger at 30-35 knots. Like Friday's storms,
there is some uncertainty regarding the orientation of the 0-3 km
shear vector. If a proper orientation can be achieved, then a line
embedded tornado threat can develop. Min to max theta-e difference
will again be sufficient, down to around -25K. This will support the
potential for damaging wind gusts as the MCS passes through. gusts
may exceed 70 mph. Golf ball size hail could be possible in the
initial developmental stage before a quick transition to a linear
mode occurs. There remains uncertainty regarding the location of
this potential MCS as its overall evolution will be dependent on how
Thursday's storms pan out. Any severe storm threat should be coming
to an end near daybreak Saturday morning. Aside from the severe
storm potential, there remains the potential for flash flooding with
them as well. Please see the hydrology section below for more
information.

Saturday (Independence Day) looks to have some storm potential. An
incoming surface high pressure system looks to push some of the
available moisture to the south of the area. While this does not
mean there will be no instability, it does suggest that the
strongest storms will be off to the south of the as the best frontal
forcing looks to lie near or south of I-80. That said, non-severe
storms are possible which could affect holiday plans. Too early to
say for sure when and where these storms could track. Continue to
monitor the latest forecast for the most up to date information.

The rest of the weekend and first half of next week could feature
additional chances for showers and storms. This potential is
uncertain at this time as the better upper level jet will push away
from the Northern Plains, leaving weaker forcing for this period of
time. As of now, have not strayed the NBM's PoPs at this time.
Otherwise, temperatures look to remain in the 80s to potentially
reaching into the low 90s in a few spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Radar and satellite has an area of thunderstorms west of KFSD
and east of KHON this evening. These storms will continue to
push eastward affecting the KFSD site around 2z-6z. Further
storm development this evening on the southern side of the line
will begin to affect KSUX around 2z-7z. Storms have moved east
of the KHON area, but there still remains a slight chance for a
stray storm through 4z.

Within the line of storms, erratic winds, hail, lightning, and
reductions to visibility will be possible. Ceilings will fall to
MVFR as the line of storms move through. Lingering showers are
possible after the line of storms moves through the region later
this evening and into the morning hours. There remains some
uncertainty with the exact timing of the storms as they move
through the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Individual model guidance, along with PMM from the
HREF continues to indicate the potential for 1-3 inches of rain with
pockets exceeding 4 inches in some locations. This, combined with
saturated ground from recent rainfall, may result in enhanced
runoff. Confidence remains low in the exact location or areal extent
of higher rainfall but there appears to be agreement in a west to
east stripe of enhanced rain totals across NW IA this evening and
overnight that would be capable of flash flooding. This idea has
some support from NWM rapid onset flooding probabilities. In
addition to flash flooding, guidance would also suggest some minor
to perhaps moderate river flooding is also possible by this weekend.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Dux/WFO STO
HYDROLOGY...Kalin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-030815-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this morning over parts of
northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. The main threats will be
quarter sized hail and wind gusts around 50 to 60 mph.

The bigger concern comes this evening into the overnight hours when a
complex of thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from
the northwest. These storms will be capable of producing wind gusts
to 75 mph and heavy rainfall. If a storm can develop this afternoon,
2 inch hail, an isolated tornado and wind gusts to 70 mph are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of potential severe storms and heavy rainfall will
move into the area on Friday evening and Friday night. Details are
uncertain at this time. It's important to monitor the forecast over
the coming days heading into the holiday weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
604 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Erwin               44.50N 97.53W
07/02/2026  M82 MPH          Kingsbury          SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DTMS2 De Smet 7N (SD
            Mesonet).

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
613 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 WSW Lake Preston      44.32N 97.46W
07/02/2026  M58 MPH          Kingsbury          SD   Public

            Measured by personal weather station.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNW De Smet           44.43N 97.56W
07/02/2026  M66 MPH          Kingsbury          SD   AWOS

            AWOS station K6E5 3 NNW De Smet.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
639 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SE Dimock             43.44N 97.95W
07/02/2026  M66 MPH          Hutchinson         SD   Public

            Measured on personal weather station.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
654 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NW Chester            43.94N 96.97W
07/02/2026  E61 MPH          Lake               SD   Public

            Measured on a personal weather station.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
656 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 ENE Orland            43.91N 97.09W
07/02/2026  M65 MPH          Lake               SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MDMS2 Madison 6S (SD
            Mesonet).

&&

JC