Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Lyon County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

311 
WWUS83 KFSD 160227
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
927 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098-161500-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0007.260416T1700Z-260417T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KFSD.FW.W.0008.260416T1700Z-260417T0100Z/
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Lincoln-Murray-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-
927 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA 
AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, Plymouth and Woodbury. 
  In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone and 
  Rock.

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-161500-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0008.260416T1700Z-260417T0100Z/
Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Clay-Union-
927 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In South 
  Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

305 
WWUS83 KFSD 160853
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
353 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-161730-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0008.260416T1700Z-260417T0100Z/
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Lincoln-Murray-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-
Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Union-
353 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, FAR 
WESTERN IOWA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, Plymouth and Woodbury. 
  In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone and 
  Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, 
  Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Lake, 
  Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, McCook, Minnehaha, 
  Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, Bon Homme, 
  Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 13 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

073 
WWUS83 KFSD 161702
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-170100-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260417T0100Z/
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Lincoln-Murray-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-
Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Union-
1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, FAR 
WESTERN IOWA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, Plymouth and Woodbury. 
  In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone and 
  Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, 
  Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Lake, 
  Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, McCook, Minnehaha, 
  Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, Bon Homme, 
  Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 13 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

906 
WWUS83 KFSD 170056
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
756 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-170200-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260417T0100Z/
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Lincoln-Murray-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-
Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Union-
756 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN 
SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, FAR WESTERN IOWA, AND 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

Winds continue to wane this evening putting an end to the fire 
danger. However, humidity is slowly recovering, so elevated fire 
danger will persist for the rest of the evening timeframe. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
622 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy and locally dense fog is developing early this morning
  north of I-90. Visibility may fall below one mile at times.

- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue
  through this evening, mainly focused across northwestern Iowa
  and adjacent areas in eastern Nebraska and extreme
  southeastern South Dakota.

- An isolated strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon
  and evening along/south of a line from Norfolk, Nebraska to
  Spencer, Iowa. Highest risk is from 3 to 7 PM. If a stronger
  storm can develop, main threats are hail to ping pong ball
  size (1.5 inches) and wind gusts to 60 mph. A tornado cannot
  be ruled out.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy
  southwest wind gusts lead to near critical to critical fire
  danger Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
  along/west of I-29. Additional fire concerns possible Friday
  but confidence is low.

- A pattern shift leads to a brief cool down late this week into
  the weekend with continued precipitation chances. Uncertainty
  remains, but an isolated strong to severe storm is possible
  again Friday. Much colder air could lead to wintry
  precipitation, although timing and type remain uncertain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Calm to light and variable winds are leading to another morning of
patchy fog, including locally dense fog, mainly north of I-90 where
skies have cleared. Fog should lift through the mid morning hours.
Expect any visibility below 1/2 miles to be limited in scope, so not
anticipating any headlines. But with guidance handling this a bit
poorly, will keep an eye on trends. Showers and isolated storms
continue to move north from NE this morning, but most areas are
struggling to see precipitation reach the ground.

For later today, SPC Day 1 outlook has shifted both the Marginal and
Slight risks (levels 1 and 2 of 5, respectively) back west - with
the Marginal into northeastern NE and northeastern IA and the Slight
risk southeast of Sloan to Storm Lake line. Some uncertainty in
severe risk depending on how far north the lower level front will
lift through the day and if there is any morning convection across
the area. Regardless, shear values and mid level lapse rates still
appear supportive of large hail to ping pong ball size. Damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph are also possible with stronger storms. Biggest
question will be the instability, with most deterministic guidance
limiting MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg or less, which would temper the
severe potential. A tornado cannot be ruled out if the boundary can
sneak back into our area with low level shear and increased
instability tied to that front. Greatest risk looks to be from 3 to 7
PM. CAMs do overall develop storms across NE and move them northeast
into our area during this time. Any storm across the area will be
capable of lightning, so keep an eye on the forecast if you have
outdoor plans today/tonight.

Another change to the forecast in the relatively shorter term was
the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for areas along and west of I-
29 for Thursday afternoon and evening. More details are below in the
Fire Weather Section of this discussion, but breezy winds and very
low humidity with warmer temperatures combine for near critical to
critical fire conditions. Thursday is another day to use extreme
caution to prevent fire start.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Radar is picking up on a stripe of showers extending from
roughly Marshall, MN to Gregory, SD this afternoon, but most of
this will not be reaching the ground due high cloud heights and
dry air beneath said clouds. Scattered showers and storms will
continue to develop off to our south and west over the next
hour or so where the greater surface moisture is. Can't entirely
rule out an elevated thunderstorm over northwest Iowa as
soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE lifted from around 750
mb this afternoon, but likely not enough for severe weather.
However, small hail would be possible with mid level lapse rates
around 7-7.5 C/km and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear if a
thunderstorm can develop.

A boundary will be lifting northward across the region late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The NAMNest is the fastest with
this boundary arrival, bringing in storms to the Highway 20
corridor just before sunrise Wednesday, but this remains an
outlier. What's more likely to occur is showers and storms not
developing until the afternoon as the boundary continues
drifting northward and instability increases due to daytime
heating. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible given
mid level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km and bulk shear in the
45-55 kt range. The main threat with any of these afternoon
storms would be large hail up to ping pong ball in size followed
by damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. If we do get morning showers
or storms tomorrow, then that may limit the ability for the
atmosphere to recover in the afternoon, thus less afternoon
instability. The best chance of an isolated severe storm
Wednesday afternoon will be roughly along and east of a Spencer
to Sioux City line. Any storms will push east of the area
heading into Wednesday evening as the surface low and upper wave
move out of the area.

We are dry for Thursday, but this may come with the potential
for critical fire danger in parts of the area. Southwesterly
winds look to return for areas mainly along and west of I-29,
which will help drop relative humidity values down to 25% and
below Thursday afternoon. With temperatures in the 80s and winds
gusting to 25 to 30 mph, a very high fire danger can be
expected for most of the area. Uncertainty remains on how strong
the winds will get and how far east these stronger winds make
it, and if the grasses are starting to green up enough to
prevent more widespread fire weather concerns. With that, held
off on fire weather headlines for now until certainty grows.

The main western US trough that has been helping to send all
these impulses across the area over the past couple of days will
finally move eastward heading into Friday, pushing a strong
cold front into the area. Ahead of the front, warm and moister
air will be favorable for thunderstorms, some of which could be
strong to severe mainly east of I-29. Timing of the cold front
will play a role in how much coverage of storms can be expected,
with a faster passage meaning a lower threat and a slower
passage leading to a greater threat of stronger storms. One
thing is for more certain is the colder air that will follow
this system, with lows expected to drop below freezing for most
of the area by Saturday morning. This means some rain with this
system may at least briefly turn to snow as the precipitation
exits the area, but confidence is very low on this potential.
Either way, expect much cooler temperatures heading into the
Friday night through Sunday morning time frame. After this push
of colder air, ridging aloft looks to return and thus a quick
warming trend looks possible into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Patchy fog north of I-90 is leading to some localized MVFR
conditions. Although we could see some IFR visibility mainly
east of the Buffalo Ridge, chances are less than 30% through mid
morning. Otherwise, showers and isolated storms may bring
heavier rainfall and lower stratus, leading to periods of MVFR
and possibly IFR conditions in thunderstorms. A stronger storm
is possible from KOFK to KSPW later this afternoon through this
evening. Have included mention of TSRA in a PROB30 group at
KSUX, given the uncertainty in storm coverage. Winds through the
period remain on the lighter side, with direction varying at
times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Although humidity values today fall to below 25% west of the James
River, light southerly winds preclude any widespread concerns.
Minimum RH values increase further east with light winds and
scattered shower/storm chances, widespread elevated fire danger is
not expected today.

Attention turns to Thursday with temperatures climbing into the 80s.
A dry day is expected, and much drier air moves into the region
leading to minimum humidity values as low as 15% and only as high as
around 30%. These factors along with strong southwesterly winds
gusting to around 30 mph will lead to near critical to critical fire
conditions as fuels remain dry. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
along and west of I-29 from noon to 8 PM, where the strongest winds
and lowest humidity coincide.

Confidence is low in the potential for near critical fire conditions
Friday due to a cold front moving through Thursday into Friday. This
timing impacts temperatures and there may be some showers with some
uncertainty in the precipitation type. Northwesterly winds on Friday
will be stronger than Thursday, gusting to around 40 mph. However,
RH values are expected to be near or exceed 35%, which with cooler
temperatures and precipitation, may temper widespread concerns.
Breezy and cooler weather Saturday may lead to elevated concerns,
but confidence is low.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...Samet
AVIATION...SG
FIRE WEATHER...SG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
345 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-160845-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
345 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Patchy and locally dense fog may reduce visibility to less than one
mile at times through the morning commute.

Scattered showers and storms continue today into the evening. An
isolated strong to severe storm may occur between 3 and 7 PM across
northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa. Main threats are ping pong
ball sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph, although a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Near critical to critical fire danger returns Thursday due to breezy
winds, very low humidity, and warmer temperatures. Elevated fire
concerns possible Friday due to strong winds, although increased
humidity may temper widespread concerns.

An isolated strong to severe storm is possible east of Iowa State
Highway 60 Friday, although confidence in details is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.