Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Lyon County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

367 
WWUS83 KFSD 120221
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
921 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

SDZ050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-069-121000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0007.260412T1700Z-260413T0000Z/
Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-Yankton-
921 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, 
  Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, Charles Mix, Douglas, 
  Hutchinson, Bon Homme and Yankton.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

011 
WWUS83 KFSD 120751
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
251 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

NEZ013-SDZ061-062-066-067-070-071-121730-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FW.W.0007.260412T1700Z-260413T0000Z/
Dixon-McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Clay-Union-
251 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND DIXON COUNTY NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dixon. In South Dakota, McCook, 
  Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-069-121730-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0007.260412T1700Z-260413T0000Z/
Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-Yankton-
251 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG 
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, 
  Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, Charles Mix, Douglas, 
  Hutchinson, Bon Homme and Yankton.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

228 
WWUS83 KFSD 121725
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

NEZ013-SDZ050-052-053-057>071-130000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260413T0000Z/
Dixon-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dixon. In South Dakota, Gregory, 
  Jerauld, Sanborn, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, McCook, 
  Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, 
  Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

548 
WWUS83 KFSD 121744
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

IAZ001-012-020-MNZ097-098-NEZ014-SDZ054>056-130000-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260413T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Pipestone-Rock-Dakota-Miner-Lake-Moody-
1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR 
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, FAR NORTHWEST IOWA, AND DAKOTA COUNTY 
NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux and Plymouth. In 
  Minnesota, Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dakota. In South 
  Dakota, Miner, Lake and Moody.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NEZ013-SDZ050-052-053-057>071-130000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260413T0000Z/
Dixon-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
1244 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND DIXON COUNTY NEBRASKA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dixon. In South Dakota, Gregory, 
  Jerauld, Sanborn, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, McCook, 
  Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, 
  Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

854 
WWUS83 KFSD 122346
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
646 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

IAZ001-012-020-MNZ097-098-NEZ013-014-SDZ050-052>071-130100-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260413T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Gregory-Jerauld-
Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
646 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, FAR NORTHWEST IOWA, AND DAKOTA COUNTY
NEBRASKA...

Winds have begun to decrease and relative humidity is beginning to
recover. The Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 7 PM,
as scheduled. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will
  spread north today, mainly along/east of Highway 81. Mostly
  light accumulations expected.

- Elevated to locally near critical fire concerns are expected
  by Sunday as unseasonable warmth returns along with breezy
  westerly winds. This along with critical RH values (18%-30%)
  will lead to high to very high fire danger with the focus
  being from south-central South Dakota to southwest Minnesota.

- Renewed chances for showers and storms return on Monday and
  Tuesday with the potential for a few stronger storms. However,
  some details remain uncertain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Early morning ACCAS (spotty high-based showers and a few storms)
developed around 1 AM. This has continued to bubble and lift
slowly northeast in a broad warm advection regime. Have updated
early morning precip chances to account for this activity.

An additional surge of warm advection is seen in some high-res
guidance through mid-morning. Beginning to see this development
in northeast Nebraska, and CAMs are consistent in showing this
activity expand in coverage as it lifts north this morning
before weakening/moving east of the forecast area by midday.
While a few high-based storms are again possible, severe weather
is not expected.

SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe
storms across southeast portions of our forecast area in the
latest Day 1 (today and tonight) and Day 2 (Sunday-Sunday night)
outlooks. For Day 1, the primary concern would be an isolated
strong to severe storm in northwest Iowa as the low level jet
increases later this evening into the overnight hours. While a
couple of the more robust high-res models depict a stronger
storm developing, the majority of the CAMs lack much more than
a lingering drizzle potential from widespread stratus, with
marginal mid- level lapse rates and generally weak deep layer
shear limiting severe potential tonight.

For Day 2, storm development during peak heating/instability
depends on timing of a modest shortwave sliding across the
area. Latest models bring the wave through in the morning to
midday which could suppress activity as we move through the
afternoon. If the timing of this wave is delayed, instability is
sufficient to support a few storms, though deep layer shear is
on the weak side, so overall severe threat is still uncertain.

As indicated in the Day 3 outlook, Monday afternoon-evening
would bring the more favorable set-up for some strong to severe
storms, with another mid-level wave sliding east atop a warm
front lifting north through Iowa and Minnesota. Still some
variance among models in placement of better instability and
shear, so please monitor the forecast through the weekend for
the latest updates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

It's a fairly pleasant and sunny Friday afternoon
across the area! Changes are on the way though; it will get
warmer... but also a bit stormier. Warm air advection (WAA)
increases tonight, helping to bring some showers into the area
early Saturday morning. These showers will move into the
Missouri River Valley at first and lift northeastward into
Saturday morning. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible with
this activity, but severe weather is not expected. With the
return of southerly flow and cloud cover associated with the
aforementioned showers, expect a much milder night tonight with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Warm air advection showers will be ongoing Saturday morning
especially east of I-29. These showers will push off to our east
into north central Iowa and south central Minnesota through the
early afternoon. Saturday will be warmer and breezy, but with
showers around and increasing moisture due to continued southerly
flow, the fire weather danger will be low. The only place where we
could see elevated fire weather concerns Saturday afternoon would be
over south central South Dakota where clouds decrease the quickest
and thus it will be a bit warmer out that way. Off to our west, an
upper wave will be moving across the Rockies and sending impulses
our way. Additional showers and storms may develop overnight
Saturday into Sunday as the low level jet strengthens, allowing for
around 1000-1500 J/kg of instability to move across the area. Any
storms will be elevated given the capped low levels, leading to
large hail up to the size of quarters as the main threat if a storm
can become severe. The better chances of an isolated severe storm
will be over northwest Iowa early Sunday morning, right where the
Storm Prediction has the area in a Level 1 out of 5 Marginal
risk for severe weather.

A shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains on Sunday
and in response, a low pressure system will move across the Red
River Valley into southern Canada. West-southewesterly flow will
return to area in the wake of this system and bring a punch of
much drier air into the area, especially west of I-29. This is
where relative humidity (RH) values will drop below 30%, with RH
values as low as 18-20% possible in south central South Dakota.
It will be breezy and warm, with wind gusts around 30 mph and
highs into the 80s. All this will lead to elevated to
potentially critical fire weather concerns for areas west of
I-29, so Sunday will be a day to avoid outdoor burning. Winds
look to decrease through the late afternoon, so this could
limit the extent of the fire weather threat into Sunday evening,
but keep in mind it will still be dry and warm.

The active weather pattern continues into Monday as a deep trough
over the central West Coast begins to move eastward. Monday looks to
have the better chances for severe weather compared to Sunday
morning, though uncertainty remains especially with the location of
storm development. The 10.12Z ECMWF has storms developing over our
area, while the 10.12Z runs of the NAM and RRFS have storms not
developing until east of the area. This is at least in part due
to timing and placement differences in the position of a
surface low, with the ECMWF slower with this and the NAM and
RRFS being faster. These finer details will need to be ironed
out before we could start looking into individual severe
threats, though a slower solution would favor surface based
storms while a faster solution would favor elevated
thunderstorms. The parent trough will eject across the area on
Tuesday, and this could potentially lead to another threat of
stronger storms as yet another low pressure system moves across
the region. A few showers may linger into Wednesday, but models
diverge significantly from there. With no big pushes of cold air
advection following any of these systems, we look to remain
warm into much of next week with highs possibly staying the 70s
even into Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MVFR/IFR stratus blankets the entire area early this afternoon.
Visibilities remain vastly VFR beneath the stratus. Should see the
stratus erode on its western flank and bring sunshine to locations
in south central South Dakota. However, the bulk of the area will
continue to see the stratus remain in place for the rest of the
daylight hours. A few light showers and drizzle remain possible. The
low level jet (LLJ) will strengthen tonight, bringing low level wind
shear (LLWS) to the entire area. There remains the possibility for
an isolated storm to two to develop late tonight across northwest
Iowa. Confidence is too low to include in a TAF at this time but
will keep an eye on this potential. The low level stratus will clear
the entire area through the overnight hours as winds take on a more
westerly component. Should see the stratus completely clear the area
by about mid morning tomorrow. This will leave breezy westerly winds
to finish out the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...Samet
AVIATION...Meyers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
428 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-120930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
428 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the area
today, mainly along and east of a Yankton to Brookings line into this
afternoon. Severe weather is not expected.

If additional storms develop in northwest Iowa by late evening into
early Tuesday morning, an isolated stronger storm may be capable of
producing hail up to quarter size, or 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Unseasonably warm temperatures, gusty winds and low humidity levels
will lead to elevated fire danger concerns on Sunday. There is also
a low chance of thunderstorms developing in northwest Iowa later
Sunday into Sunday evening.

The better chance of storms will come by Monday afternoon and
evening, with a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms along and east
of a line from Marshall to Worthington Minnesota, to Storm Lake Iowa.
Please monitor the forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.