Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

415 
WWUS83 KFSD 150106
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
806 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

MNZ071-072-SDZ039-040-150915-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260515T0200Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0014.260515T1400Z-260515T2300Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Kingsbury-Brookings-
806 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Lincoln and Lyon. In South 
  Dakota, Kingsbury and Brookings.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ054>056-060>062-065>071-150215-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260515T0200Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Miner-Lake-Moody-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-
806 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA, SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA,
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Conditions have improved beyond Red Flag Warning criteria.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled. 

$$

SDZ038-150915-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0014.260515T1400Z-260515T2300Z/
Beadle-
806 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Beadle.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

285 
WWUS83 KFSD 150838
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
338 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

MNZ071-072-SDZ038>040-151730-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0014.260515T1400Z-260515T2300Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
338 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Lincoln and Lyon. In South 
  Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury and Brookings.

* WINDS...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

553 
WWUS83 KFSD 151647
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1147 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

MNZ071-072-SDZ038>040-152300-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260515T2300Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
1147 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Lincoln and Lyon. In South 
  Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury and Brookings.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 16 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

999 
WWUS83 KFSD 152306
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
606 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

MNZ071-072-SDZ038>040-160015-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260515T2300Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
606 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...

Conditions have improved above warning criteria. Therefore the Red
Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1212 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather expected today; Red Flag Warning east of
  US Highway 281 from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT. Use extreme caution to
  prevent fire start.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today, mainly
  east of I-29. Severe storms are not expected.

- Winds today gust 35-45 mph, with a few stronger gusts possible
  between the James River Valley and I-29. Strong winds lead to
  periods of blowing dust in rural areas. Use caution if
  traveling as visibility may be impacted.

- Temperatures warm though the weekend, with high temperatures
  10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Regional rain chances increase late Saturday and especially
  Sunday. Uncertainty lingers, but signals remain for strong
  storms Saturday and continuing risks Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mid/high clouds are increasing across central SD, moving east with
the mid/upper level wave this morning. Winds and gusts are already
on the increase as well with the tightening SPG ahead of the surface
low ejecting into western SD/NE. Although seeing some returns on
radar out west, have not seen any reports of precip reaching the
ground, likely due to the very dry sub cloud layer.

No significant changes to the forecast from the previous shift as
the trough continues to move east through the day. Refined pops
slightly based on some of the latest CAM guidance, but still think
any showers/storms remain isolated in nature.

Strong winds today will gust 35-45 mph. Guidance still shows
isolated stronger gusts around 50 mph, mainly between the James
River Valley and I-29, as well as across the higher elevations of
the Buffalo Ridge and Coteau. Although not anticipating any wind
headlines, will continue to monitor. Strong winds likely lead to
blowing dust and possible visibility restrictions, especially in
rural areas. Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT east
of US Hwy 281; more details in the Fire Weather Section below. Use
extreme caution to prevent a spark and report fires to local
authorities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: An absolutely beautiful afternoon across the region
as winds remain light and variable, temperatures have risen into the
70s and plenty of sunshine is around.  Expect these conditions to
persist into the evening.

TONIGHT: Shortwave ridging moves east of I-29 by daybreak
Thursday, with modest low-lvl moisture convergence on the nose
of a 50 knot LLJ trying to focus along I-29 by mid-morning. The
overnight hours are expected to remain dry but with a mixy wind,
temperatures may fail to fall below 50 degrees.

THURSDAY:  Multiple hazards likely on Thursday.  Early in the
morning, guidance shows a narrow tongue of low-mid lvl moisture
streaming up I-29. CAMS are a bit split in further development
of this moisture into a few showers/sprinkles but feel potential
is high enough to warrant slight chc PoPs into NW Iowa and SW
MN for a brief period of time. Meanwhile a surface front will
approach central SD by daybreak, gradually moving east through
the day. A channel of 50+ knots of low-lvl flow ahead of this
boundary will begin to mix downward quickly in the morning. Have
trended wind gusts towards the 90th percentile of the NBM which
aligned well with winds on Tuesday. Peak gusts may break the 45
mph mark at times into the afternoon. Surface based moisture
will be extremely limited ahead of this boundary, but another
wedge of elevated moisture may be enough to produce high based
sprinkles to showers as this front passes east into the
afternoon. Slight inhibition at 850 mb will likely prevent any
surface based convection from forming. The combination of strong
winds Thursday will also produce some patchy blowing dust and
minor air quality issues in the afternoon. For fire weather
concerns, please see separate discussion below.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: The aforementioned boundary will be
east of the CWA by daybreak Friday, with winds switching to the
west northwest behind the boundary Thursday night. VERY dry air
will advect southeast behind this boundary, setting the stage
for RH values near 15% in the afternoon of Friday. Latest trends
have pushed the strongest wind potential along or north of
Highway 14 in the afternoon as high temperatures rise into the
80s. One thing to monitor for Friday evening will be the on/off
potential in guidance of some weak low-lvl convergence across
northern Nebraska and western Iowa in the evening. This area
will be on the edge of some slightly deeper moisture and MUCAPE
AOA 800-1000 J/KG. While its an intermittent signal in CAMs,
can't discount a thunderstorm or two trying to form south of
I-90 or towards Highway 20 if we somehow reach convective temps
in the low 90s.

SATURDAY: A brief rise in mid-lvl heights and influence of drier
Canadian airmass will prevent moisture and meaningful instability
from racing northward Saturday.  For most of us, expect a dry and
rather nice Saturday as highs rise into the 80s.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: Guidance is still quite uncertain, but trends
continue to shove a trough into the Plains Saturday night. The speed
at which low-lvl flow turns more meridional remains in question,
however both the GFS/ECMWF lift an elevated warm front
northward by Sunday morning. Convergence and upper dynamics
would support growing shower and thunderstorm risks moving
northward through the Tri-State area into Sunday morning. While
the severe weather risks overnight may be low, elevated parcels
might have upwards of 500-1000 J/KG supporting some hail growth
through mid-morning Sunday.

Even more uncertainty builds through the day on Sunday, focused on
the northward push of the warm sector into the Plains.  GFS/EC/CMC
ensemble guidance all remains split 50/50 with the warm sector or
deeper instability either staying south of I-90, or on the flipside
spreading well north and bringing even moderate to strong
instability towards the Tri-State area by Sunday afternoon. AI based
models and CIPS analog guidance support the potential that does
exist for this event, further supporting early SPC day 4 outlooks.
Continue to monitor Sunday's forecast if you have outdoor events
planned, as this remains a very conditional severe weather forecast.

The upper trough deepens and pivots eastward into Monday, pushing a
surface front into the CWA overnight.  Several waves of convection
could be possible into the morning hours of Monday, with stronger
convection potential focused east of I-29. A great deal of
uncertainty remains into Monday and it's certainly possible the
greatest potential of redevelopment along the front could be pushed
east of the CWA.

This entire system should bring meaningful rain to the CWA by time
it exits the region.  NBM 10/90 percentile QPF over the 72 hour
period does range from a quarter inch to nearly 2", with a mean
around 0.75" in most locations.  Of course convection can influence
these locations significantly, which is why the NBM probability of
>0.50" is only around 50% in any given location.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Drier weather and cooler conditions are expected
as we move into the middle of next week. High temperatures Tuesday
could struggle to climb through the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR skies continue through the region as southwest winds
continue to increase over the 40 mph mark. High based showers
and isolated thunderstorms will head east through Minnesota,
with trailing showers over NW Iowa and northern Nebraska this
afternoon.

Further west, we're seeing slight reductions in visibility and
even a low cloud deck of blowing dust west of I-29. This dust
will spread east into the afternoon.

Overnight, skies will clear and winds will weaken substantially.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for areas east of US
Highway 281 from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT, where strong winds and very low
humidity will be coincident today. This combination will lead to
critical fire conditions. West of the James River Valley and into
the Missouri River Valley, strongest winds (this morning) continue
to be offset from the lowest humidity values (this afternoon), so
have kept that area out of the RFW. However, elevated to near
critical conditions are expected due to the low humidity and dry
fuels. Winds today will gust from 35-45 mph for most of the area,
with isolated stronger gusts around 50 mph. These higher gusts are
most likely between the James River Valley and I-29, as well as
across the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge and Coteau. RH
values improve through the evening, with winds tapering down from
west to east more quickly this evening and tonight.

Winds have trended downward slightly in the latest guidance compared
to 12 hours ago. Probability of gusts exceeding 35 mph have dropped
to less than 10% from the 20-40% along US Highway 14 for Friday
afternoon and evening. Given this, have left the Fire Weather Watch
as is. However, near critical to critical conditions are still
possible due to relative humidity values at or below 20% for the
entire area.

Elevated to near critical conditions continue Saturday due to the
very low humidity values. Again, relatively lighter winds may temper
widespread critical concerns, but near critical conditions are once
again possible.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return overnight Saturday into
Sunday and continue through early next week. Rainfall and higher
humidity should begin to reduce widespread fire concerns.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ039-040-
     054>056-060>062-065>071.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for SDZ038>040-052>056.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-
     080-081-089-090-097-098.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for MNZ071-072-080-097.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux
FIRE WEATHER...SG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
351 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-150900-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
351 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Near critical and critical fire conditions today due to very low
humidity and wind gusts 35 to 45 mph. Isolated gusts to 50 mph are
possible between the James River and Interstate 29. Use caution to
prevent sparks.

Blowing dust may lead to reduced visibility. Be prepared for changing
visibility if traveling.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue Friday due
to low humidity and wind gusts 20 to 30 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night into Monday. Strong
to severe storms are possible, although confidence is low in exact
timing and coverage. Monitor the forecast especially if you have
outdoor plans.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1110 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067-069>071-142300-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Brookings-Lake-Moody-McCook-Minnehaha-
Turner-Yankton-Union-
Including the cities of Rock Rapids, George, Inwood, Larchwood,
Sibley, Spirit Lake, Milford, Arnolds Park, Sioux Center,
Orange City, Rock Valley, Hawarden, Hull, Sheldon, Hartley,
Sanborn, Spencer, Le Mars, Cherokee, Storm Lake, Sioux City,
Ida Grove, Holstein, Battle Creek, Tyler, Hendricks, Lake Benton,
Ivanhoe, Marshall, Slayton, Fulda, Windom, Mountain Lake,
Worthington, Jackson, Lakefield, Pipestone, Luverne, Wakefield,
Ponca, Allen, South Sioux City, Brookings, Madison, Orland,
Flandreau, Salem, Canistota, Bridgewater, Montrose, Sioux Falls,
Parker, Centerville, Marion, Viborg, Irene, Hurley, Chancellor,
Canton, Lennox, Tea, Harrisburg, Yankton, Vermillion,
North Sioux City, Beresford, Elk Point, Alcester, and Jefferson
1110 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...Areas of Blowing Dust This Afternoon and Early Evening...

Strong southwest winds gusting to 35 and 45 mph will continue to
produce blowing dust through the region. In very localized areas,
visibility may fall between 1 and 2 miles, and may even fall to
one half mile in open farm fields.

Winds will gradually weaken this evening, which will lessen the
blowing dust potential.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1112 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063>065-068-142000-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme-
Including the cities of Huron, De Smet, Arlington, Lake Preston,
Gregory, Burke, Wessington Springs, Alpena, Woonsocket, Howard,
Chamberlain, Kimball, Plankinton, White Lake, Stickney, Mitchell,
Alexandria, Emery, Wagner, Platte, Lake Andes, Marty, Armour,
Corsica, Delmont, Parkston, Freeman, Menno, Tripp, Clayton,
Tyndall, Scotland, Springfield, Avon, and Tabor
1112 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...Areas of Blowing Dust This Morning and Early Afternoon...

Strong southwest winds gusting to 35 and 45 mph will continue to
produce blowing dust through the region. In very localized areas,
visibility may fall between 1 and 2 miles, and may even fall to
one half mile in open farm fields.

Winds will gradually weaken this afternoon, which will lessen the
blowing dust potential.