Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

949 
WWUS83 KFSD 120212
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
912 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-121100-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0012.260512T1700Z-260513T0200Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
912 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola, Dickinson, Sioux, 
  O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and 
  Ida. In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, 
  Jackson, Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In 
  South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

753 
WWUS83 KFSD 121025
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
525 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-122000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0012.260512T1700Z-260513T0200Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
525 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola, Dickinson, Sioux, 
  O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and 
  Ida. In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, 
  Jackson, Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In 
  South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

353 
WWUS83 KFSD 121716
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1216 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-130200-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260513T0200Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
1216 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola, Dickinson, Sioux, 
  O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and 
  Ida. In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, 
  Jackson, Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In 
  South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

113 
WWUS83 KFSD 130200
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
900 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-130300-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260513T0200Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
900 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

Conditions have improved above critical thresholds. As such, the
Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 9 PM CDT. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1255 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today, Tuesday and Thursday will see elevated to near critical
  fire weather concerns. Tuesday and Thursday appear to carry
  the highest risks with very strong winds with a dry air mass.

- Warmer conditions are expected this week with highs 10 to 20
  degrees above normal. Thursday and Friday should see highs in
  the mid 80s to lower 90s.

- Dry weather remains for most of the week. Starting to see
  increased chances for showers and thunderstorms late week into
  the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure at the surface drifts east and allows southerly flow
to develop today. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are likely,
especially near and west of I-29. With the relative humidity
falling to 20 to 30 percent, elevated fire danger is expected.

Low pressure tracks by to the northeast of the area, swinging a
front through tonight into Tuesday morning. This will bring
stronger northwest flow and continued dry air, leading to
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Fire weather
headlines will likely be needed with relative humidity once
again averaging 20 to 30 percent in the afternoon and wind gusts
climbing to 30 to 40 mph.

After a pleasant Wednesday, Thursday will see very strong
southerly flow develop. This is another day when fire weather
headlines will likely be needed. Afternoon relative humidity
will once again averaging 20 to 30 percent with wind gusts 35 to
45 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Partly clear skies persist this afternoon, allowing high
temperatures to warm to the 60s and 70s. Low humidity and marginally
breezy winds will keep elevated fire danger conditions going through
the rest of the afternoon hours. Temperatures tonight remain on
track to be on the cold side once again, falling to the low to mid
30s to low 40s. Thus, have issued another Frost Advisory for
locations along and northeast of a Huron, South Dakota to Sioux
Falls, South Dakota, to Orange City, Iowa line. The Frost Advisory
is in effect from 3 am to 9 am Monday.

An upper level trough will begin to push into the Northern Plains
from Canada on Monday. Warm air advection (WAA) will strengthen
ahead of this wave throughout the day. The WAA will push high
temperatures above average across the area with highs into the 70s
and 80s expected. Dew points will remain low though, resulting in
humidity values down to near critical to critical levels. The low
humidity along with breezy southerly winds with gusts up to 20-35
mph, strongest along and west of I-29, will result in another day of
elevated fire danger across the area. While conditions will be near
critical to critical, greening fuels continue to lessen the overall
fire danger. A cold front tied to this upper wave will push through
the area during the overnight hours. The low level jet (LLJ) will
strengthen ahead of the front, keeping breezy winds going through
the night. A few showers to perhaps a thunderstorm or two could
develop along the front as well. Severe weather is not expected as
instability will be quite weak, but perhaps some gusty winds could
be possible. Low temperatures will be much warmer, only falling to
the 50s overnight.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain warm across the area as upper
level ridging builds over the central CONUS. Tuesday will be the
cooler of the two days with high temperatures warming to the 70s.
However, winds will be quite breezy out of the northwest within the
post frontal cold advective airmass with gusts up to 30-40 mph.
Humidity values will be low across the vast majority of the area and
will hit critical thresholds. Despite recent greening of fuels,
Tuesday continues to have the highest fire danger potential with a
high GFDI. Wednesday will be a little bit warmer with highs in the
70s to low 80s. The low humidity will persist but winds will be much
lighter, keeping fire danger at bay.

There remains uncertainty regarding how the upper level pattern will
evolve for the rest of the work week and weekend. Medium range
guidance, including the machine learning guidance, continue to vary
on how the shortwave trough over the west coast progresses. The main
two camps that the models are split over is whether the upper low
slows down and potentially cuts off over the west coast or continues
eastwards as a more progressive shortwave. If the wave stays
progressive, then rain chances could increase beyond what they
currently are (20-30%). If the waves cuts off, then chances for rain
could diminish. Tough to say which solution is most likely at this
time but something that will be monitored over the coming days.
Aside from rain chances, Thursday and Friday continue to look very
warm with high temperatures warming into the 80s across the area.

The models are in slightly better agreement for next weekend with
zonal flow taking over. This could still change depending on how the
previously mentioned upper level low evolves but for now, it does
seem most likely that rain chances will increase across the Northern
Plains. This is supported by the ensembles as they show increasing
chances for rain, up to a 30-50% chance for exceeding a tenth of an
inch of rain. Sunday has the highest probabilities at this time.
High temperatures look to remain warm but a little bit cooler than
Thursday and Friday with highs only warming to the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period. High level scattered to
broken clouds will prevail. Southerly winds will be gusting 20-30
mph. Strongest gusts located west of I-29 for this afternoon. This
evening the strongest gusts will shift to the east of I-29. A very
brief lull in winds as a cold front moves through the region from
northwest to southeast near or shortly after midnight tonight. Winds
will become northwest with gusts through the morning, peaking at 35-
40 mph. A period of LLWS is expected with the passage of the
front.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...AJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-120830-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
318 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

High fire danger will be in place near and west of Interstate 29 as
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph combine with low relative humidity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Fire weather concerns continue through the upcoming week with dry
conditions and occasionally windy periods. Tuesday and Thursday
appear to see the highest threats for elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions. Both days will see wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph,
possibly around 45 mph on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.