Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Yankton County, SD

513 
WWUS83 KFSD 230728
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
228 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064-231800-
/O.EXT.KFSD.FW.W.0011.260423T1600Z-260423T2200Z/
Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Charles Mix-
Douglas-
228 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Beadle, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Charles Mix and Douglas.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 12 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ071-072-097-SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>069-231800-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0011.260423T1800Z-260424T0100Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Pipestone-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
228 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST
OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon and Pipestone. In 
  South Dakota, Kingsbury, Brookings, Miner, Lake, Moody, 
  Hanson, McCook, Minnehaha, Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, Bon 
  Homme and Yankton.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

819 
WWUS83 KFSD 231617
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1117 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064-232200-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260423T2200Z/
Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Charles Mix-
Douglas-
1117 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Beadle, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Charles Mix and Douglas.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ071-072-097-SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>069-240030-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0011.260423T1800Z-260424T0100Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Pipestone-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
1117 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon and Pipestone. In 
  South Dakota, Kingsbury, Brookings, Miner, Lake, Moody, 
  Hanson, McCook, Minnehaha, Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, Bon 
  Homme and Yankton.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 11 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

115 
WWUS83 KFSD 240056
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
756 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

MNZ071-072-097-SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>069-240200-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260424T0100Z/
Lincoln-Lyon-Pipestone-Kingsbury-Brookings-Miner-Lake-Moody-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
756 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

Relative humidity values have recovered above critical levels so
will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire. However, strong
northwesterly winds will remain, leading to elevated fire danger 
through the rest of the evening hours as winds slowly diminish.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
105 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely tonight.
  An isolated strong to severe storm is possible mainly near
  and west of the James River, with damaging wind gusts up to 65
  mph the main threat.

- Isolated severe storms are again possible Thursday afternoon
  over parts of southwest MN and northwest IA, especially along
  and east of Highway-60.

- A return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in the
  mid 50s to lower 60s is expected Friday through the middle of
  next week.

- A very good chance (30%-60%) for showers and thunderstorms
  returns Sunday into Monday. Some locally heavier rain will be
  possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire at 8 pm as planned as
relative humidity recovers. It will only recover gradually over
the next couple of hours, so expect an elevated fire danger to
continue this evening as winds remain elevated. By midnight,
relative humidity values will be well above critical levels
area-wide.

Attention then turns to the chance for storms overnight. Storms are
currently ongoing near a dryline over western South Dakota, aided by
an upper low moving across eastern Montana. These storms will be
lifting northward, but as the dryline nudges eastward tonight,
additional showers and storms look to develop as a 50-55 kt
southerly low level jet cranks up over our area. This will lead to
around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE tonight, with instability gradually
decreasing into the early morning hours and with eastward extent.
The main concern with any thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts
up to 65 mph as there will be ample dry air underneath the clouds
that will help mix down stronger gusts. With the dry sub cloud
layer, will also need to keep an eye out for any outflow boundaries
from any storm, as these could also bring stronger wind gusts as
well. The best chance of severe weather will be near and west of
the James River. Mid level lapse rates will be quite steep, on
the order of 8-9 C/km; however, with limited instability and
weak bulk shear, updrafts will likely have trouble sustaining
themselves and thus only small hail looks possible at this time.

Otherwise it will be a warm night tonight with lows in the 50s and
60s. Winds look to diminish somewhat towards daybreak, but still
remain on the breezy side with gusts to 20-30 mph during the morning
commute Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Strong winds will continue into the evening, but the lower
humidities will diminish around sunset. It should be noted
however that fairly strong southerly flow will continue through
the night. Otherwise, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
will become likely in central SD later this evening into the
overnight hours. With 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE potential and some
drier low levels hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts
to 65mph will be possible. These storms should be confined to
areas west of the James River and possibly mainly closer to the
Missouri River in central SD. The weak mid and upper level wave
associated with this development drifts east through the night,
but instability wanes towards I-29, so expect any stronger
storms to generally weaken as they head east late tonight into
early Thursday morning.

The late tonight and early morning activity will diminish
through the morning, but given the amount of clouds left behind
as well as the progression of the pre-frontal trough, the threat
for severe weather seems pretty limited for Thursday afternoon
and likely shifted a bit east. For now, the best chance for
isolated severe storms will be mid to late afternoon and mainly
east of a Marshall to Sioux City line. If we can break out of
the cloud cover and warm enough, there will be about 1000 J/kg
CAPE with about 30 knots of shear so the potential for half
dollar hail and 60 mph winds will exist.

Friday looks cool and dry with winds remaining mostly below 15 to 20
mph, so not too bad of a day. Highs mainly in the 60s.

On Saturday, low pressure to the northwest will drift east but not
move very much, as jet energy wraps around the southern edge into
the area. Saturday into Sunday a southern stream jet will also
spread into the Central Plains and bring additional upper level
support to the area. What this means is that from roughly Saturday
into early Monday the area will see periods of moderate to strong
mid level warm advection, which will bring periodic chances for
showers and thunderstorms. The strongest period of lift appears to
arrive on Sunday but for now the various models focus is all over
the place so confidence is a bit low on the exact location of the
more organized showers and storms. Of note the canadian ensemble and
ec ensemble indicate most of the area will see a 60-90 percent
chance for a half an inch or more of rain while the GEFS indicates
something similar, just to the southeast of the area. Probabilities
of an inch or more are running about 30-40 percent. Long story
short, will need to watch trends to see if we can really get some
meaningful rainfall in the area.

Low pressure wraps up to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving
the area in faster west to northwest flow and likely mostly dry
conditions. There will be some spotty chances for showers and
thunderstorms but for now that looks like a very isolated threat.
Temperatures will be near the seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Taking a look across the area early this morning, there are
some high based thunderstorms mainly in north central South Dakota,
with a second area of weaker storms in northern Nebraska. These
storms will miss the area for the most part, the exception being
near KHON. However, confidence of getting thunder near or at the
airport was only high enough for a PROB30 group at this time. All
this activity is associated with an eastward moving dryline, and a
few areas of rain will continue to develop through the rest of
tonight into this morning, but thunder looks unlikely at KFSD and
KSUX for at least this early morning round. As we head into the late
morning/early afternoon, a broken line of showers and storms looks
to develop over parts of northwest Iowa in southwest Minnesota and
quickly push eastward through the afternoon. It's looking
likely the chance of thunder with this activity will remain east
of KFSD, but things are a bit more uncertain down by KSUX.
Guidance is split on whether or not storms develop in and around
KSUX or just to the east. A PROB30 group for -TSRA appears
sufficient at this time until confidence grows in where these
storms develop.

An area of stratus is currently located over eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. This area will lift north and lower as we head into
the early morning hours, bringing MVFR ceilings mainly near and east
of I-29. Locally IFR ceilings will be possible with this activity
mainly over parts of northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota after
sunrise and into the early afternoon hours. Overall, these lower
ceilings will gradually push east throughout the morning into the
afternoon.

Winds stay gusty through the period and will gradually turn west
southwesterly as the dryline pushes eastward through this morning. A
cold front will then move across the area from northwest to
southeast this afternoon and evening, turning winds to the northwest
to end the period. Wind will remain gusty to 35 kts through sunrise,
decreasing slightly during the daytime morning hours before
increasing again behind the cold front.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...Samet
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Samet

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
242 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-230745-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
242 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Dry and windy conditions today will lead to critical fire concerns
for most areas. Avoid any outdoor burning and heed all local
restrictions!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional elevated fire concerns will be possible west of I-29 on
Thursday. However, increasing cloud coverage and rain chances could
taper potential.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return from Wednesday night
through Thursday. A few storms could become severe with the primary
threats being strong winds and large hail. The greatest risk will be
along and east of Highway-60 Thursday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.