Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Lyon County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

869 
WWUS83 KFSD 220145
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
845 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

IAZ001-002-012-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-220945-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0010.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Sioux-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
845 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, FAR
NORTHWESTERN IOWA, AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola and Sioux. In 
  Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, Jackson, 
  Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In South 
  Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

733 
WWUS83 KFSD 220734
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
234 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

IAZ001-002-012-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-221800-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0010.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Sioux-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
234 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, FAR
NORTHWESTERN IOWA, AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola and Sioux. In 
  Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, Jackson, 
  Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In South 
  Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

399 
WWUS83 KFSD 221646
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1146 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

IAZ001-002-012-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-230100-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0010.260422T1700Z-260423T0100Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Sioux-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
1146 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, FAR
NORTHWESTERN IOWA, AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola and Sioux. In 
  Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, Jackson, 
  Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In South 
  Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 to 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

641 
WWUS83 KFSD 230053
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
753 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

IAZ001-002-012-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-NEZ013-014-
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-230200-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260423T0100Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Sioux-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
753 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN 
SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA, 
AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

Gusty winds will continue into tonight, leading to elevated fire
danger through this evening as relative humidity recovers. 
However, with the worst conditions behind us, allowed the Red 
Flag Warning to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds and unseasonable warm temperatures
  will promote dangerous fire weather concerns on Wednesday
  mainly west of the James River Valley. Additional concerns
  will be possible by Thursday.

- Low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms return
  Wednesday night through Thursday night. Scattered severe
  storms will be possible east of a Yankton to Hartford to
  Brookings line. However, some uncertainty remains due to poor
  model agreement with the progressing cold front.

- Above normal temperatures persist through Wednesday, when
  highs of 80 to 95 degrees are expected. A pattern shift means
  cooler weather returns for the weekend with highs dropping
  back into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Taking a look across the area, mostly clear conditions continue this
morning with many areas reporting temperatures in the 40s to low
50s. The forecast remains on track with warmer and quieter
conditions expected today as highs approach the upper 70s to mid
80s. While we once again will be dry this afternoon, light northeast
winds in association with a weak surface low will keep any fire
weather concerns at bay for the day. Looking ahead, Wednesday
continues to look like our warmest day of the week as a surface warm
front passes through the area. This combined with increasing
southerly winds will not only lead to dangerous fire weather
concerns but also highs in the 80s to low 90s (more in the fire
weather section). The breezier conditions will likely carry over
into Thursday as a cold front swings through the area. While there
is still some uncertainty with the progression of the cold front,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible by Thursday
afternoon especially east of I-29.

With the temperatures expected to be in the 70s to low 80s, a few
developing storms could become severe east of I-29 with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary threats. Upon an initial look
at the environment, damaging winds looks to be the more prevalent
threat as semi-discrete cells grow upscale into a line with
eastwards extent ahead of the cold front. However, there is still
some uncertainty on if things will get going in our area
(Euro/Canadian) or just east of us (GFS/NAM) and this is currently
depicted in medium-range guidance. With all this in mind, SPC has
now outlined areas along and east of a Yankton to Hartford to
Brookings line in a Day 3 Slight Risk for severe weather (Level 2 of
5). Remember these details are subject to change so make sure to
follow your local forecast and have multiple ways to receive warning
information!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Looking across the region, temperatures range
from the low 60s to around 70 degrees as of 2 PM. Deeper mixing than
models expected has yielded gusts peaking 25 to 35 mph, but warm air
advection has brought rising humidity (currently 21 to 35 degrees)
and slow-to-warm temperatures. Dew points remain near the NBM 25th
percentile. Periods of near-critical to critical fire danger will
persist through sunset. See the Fire Weather section below for more
details.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: Winds weaken tonight as a dry, weak sfc trough
slides in northwest flow, reducing fire danger. Mostly clear skies
will pave the way for another chilly night, but a steep near-sfc
inversion will keep lows a bit warmer than previous nights. Expect
temperatures to bottom out in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Meandering on the dry side of a quasi-stationary front near the I-80
corridor means continued very dry conditions for Tuesday. Efficient
mixing quickly through the nocturnal inversion into light winds
aloft will make for a sunny, warmer spring day with high confidence
highs ranging from the mid 70s (southwest MN) to mid 80s (Hwy 20
corridor and south central SD).

WEDNESDAY: Notably hotter, windier, and dry conditions develop
Wednesday in response to a 90th percentile (of NAEFS climatology)
upper ridge building through. Currently have forecast high
temperatures ranging from the lower 80s (east of I-29) to the lower
90s (west of the SD James River Valley), but see potential for
temperatures to tick up a few degrees based on recent blend biases.
A south wind mixing into a strong low level jet lends high
confidence to gusts peaking in the 30s. Model forecast profiles show
potential for some lower 40s gusts in south central SD. Higher winds
combined with hotter weather brings high confidence in fire weather
headlines across at least a portion of the area Wednesday and low
confidence in fire danger on Thursday. See Fire Weather section for
details.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A progressive upper low treks east
into the Upper High Plains Wednesday night, introducing a low to
moderate (<60%) chance for isolated showers and storms in central
SD. This activity may progress eastward leading to some scattered
showers and/or storms for the day Thursday. While agreement in a mid
level speed max in the area is sufficient to warrant isolated severe
storm threat, moisture and instability may be weak enough to prevent
organized convection. Portions of northwest Iowa are currently
highlighted in a SPC Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook, but will need to
continue to monitor model trends as models differ greatly in the
residence time in the warm sector and the speed of the associated
cold frontal passage (slower Euro vs faster GFS/NAM).

FRIDAY AND BEYOND: Behind Thursday's front, temperatures will be
much cooler for the weekend with highs again dropping to the 50s and
60s and nightly lows near to below the freezing mark. The mid week
upper low closes off over the Canadian prairie favoring below normal
temperatures at least into early next week. The resultant zonal
flow aloft brings lower confidence in next week's forecast with
a moderate (20-40%) chance of at least some light rain (or
rain/snow mix) Sunday night into Monday with a passing wave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will be the rule through 22.18Z with the primary
impact to aviation operations being changing wind direction and
speed. Outside of some cirrus, skies will be mostly clear/sunny.
Light north-northeast wind this afternoon will gradually turn
to the east-southeast this evening and overnight. By Wednesday
morning, expect winds to quickly shift to the south and increase
with gusts 25 kts or higher by the end of the forecast period.
Looking ahead to Wednesday afternoon, southerly winds will
strengthen further with gusts over 30 kts possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A brief break from fire weather concerns is expected today as
light northeasterly winds persist for most of the day. With this
in mind, low to moderate fire danger is expected although it
will be quite dry this afternoon. This will change into
Wednesday as deeper mixing and a tightening surface pressure
gradient leads to strong southerly winds withs gusts between
35-45 mph by early afternoon. Combine this with critical
relative humidity values in the 15-30 percent range and it
becomes quite the dangerous set up for fire concerns especially
along and west of the James River Valley. With this in mind,
decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the previously
mentioned areas since this is where the highest confidence for
critical conditions are. While the fuels are a bit greener
across southcentral SD, the stronger winds and warmer/drier
conditions will create a favorable environment for fire spread.
Nonetheless, this isn't the only area of interest. Near-critical
fire concerns could stretch as far east as the I-29 corridor so
make sure to avoid any outdoor burning and to head your local
restrictions.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for SDZ038-050-052-053-057>060-063>065-068-069.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...Rogers
FIRE WEATHER...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
426 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-220930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
426 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Continued dry and windy conditions will lead to elevated fire
concerns on Wednesday. Avoid any planned burn activities and use
caution with all outdoor activities.

Low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms will return by
Thursday mainly along and east of I-29. A few storms could become
severe with the primary threats being strong winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.