Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1028 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds with rain and snow showers will continue
to push eastward with activity mostly diminishing by 6-7 PM. The
next round of winter weather and gusty winds looks to move
through Thursday evening through Friday morning. Fair weather
returns this weekend and continues into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...The second of the three weather disturbances
that we've been messaging the last few days is currently
underway. A shortwave trough is passing to our north, and an
associated cold front is crossing through northern AZ. The frontal
band itself has not been impressive, but upslope showers have
been ongoing since the morning and brought snow accumulations
along much of the high terrain. Some brief enhancement of existing
shower activity remains possible as the front continues eastward.
The primary hazards for the rest of today are continued brief
heavy snowfall rates, high winds, and blowing snow. The current
forecast calls for at most a few inches of additional snow
accumulation. Very strong have winds have accompanied this system,
with gusts to 60-70 mph (locally up to 80 mph) observed through
the day and some reports of wind damage. Due to lingering
impactful snow plus strong winds, Winter Storm Warnings, Winter
Weather Advisories, High Wind Warnings, and Wind Advisories are
currently in effect. Shower activity looks to move past Flagstaff
by 3-4 PM, and things mostly wind down by 6-7 PM. Current
headlines remain in effect until 7-8 PM MST, but may be ended
sooner if conditions allow.

Tonight through Thursday afternoon...Dry air takes hold after the
frontal passage, with winds also quickly tapering off into the
evening. Very cold overnight lows are expected along the high
terrain as a result, temperatures into the low teens or high single
digits are possible. The rapid drop in temperatures could lead to
slick surface conditions on Thursday morning. The lull in activity
is expected to hold through the day on Thursday.

Thursday evening through Friday...The latest hi-res guidance has the
final round moving through northern AZ between late Thursday evening
and early Friday morning. This system sets up very similarly to our
current system, however this will be the coldest system so far.
Current storm totals have trended down slightly, but A Winter Storm
Watch remains in effect for the Mogollon Rim and Kaibab Plateau with
accumulations 4-8'' possible. Strong winds will accompany this
system as well, however they will not be quite as gusty as today.

Saturday and beyond...After the final shortwave departs, fair
weather returns. Very cold morning temperatures are possible once
again on Saturday morning. Temperatures gradually warm through the
weekend, returning to 5-10 degrees above normal by Monday as a ridge
builds overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 19/06Z through Friday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR
with isolated MVFR/IFR conditions continuing over higher terrain.
Light winds overnight, becoming SW-W 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30
kts after 18Z. ISO-SCT SHSN/SHRA, mainly after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 20/06Z through Sunday 22/06Z...MVFR/IFR/LIFR
+SN/+RA and BLSN through 15Z Friday. SW-W winds 15-25 kts with
gusts 30-40 kts into Friday. VFR with diminishing winds returns
late Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Friday...Rain and snow will
end from west to east late this afternoon and early evening. Another
cold storm system will bring a round of widespread rain and snow
Thursday evening into Friday, with snow levels as low as 3500 feet.
Winds decreasing this evening and becoming light overnight.
Southwest wind 10-20 mph Thursday increasing to 20-35 mph Thursday
night through Friday morning.

Saturday through Monday...Fair weather with a warming trend.
Variable winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for AZZ004-015-016.

&&

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
748 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Vernon                  34.25N 109.69W
02/18/2026  M79 MPH          Apache             AZ   Public

&&