Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 PM MST Mon Aug 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures and scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected through much of this week.

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.DISCUSSION...High pressure will sit over the Four Corners over
the next few days. This puts Arizona in a favorable spot for
increased moisture flow into the area which will lead to more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. With PWAT's hitting
1.0-1.5", storms will be able to put down more rain and as the
soil saturates throughout the week, flash flooding will definitely
be a concern. With the higher moisture and likely increased cloud
cover, high temperatures will also drop below average for the
first time in awhile.

Moisture and POPs are expected to peak around Thursday. By Friday
a weak West Coast trough begins to move into the area which will
push our high pressure center to the east, as well as introduce
some drier air across the region. By Saturday storm chances will
be confined mainly over the White Mountain region and the very
highest terrain. High temperatures will begin to recover back to
mid August averages by Saturday or Sunday.

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.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/00Z through Wednesday 12/00Z...SCT-NRMS
SHRA/TSRA expected through 10Z. Another round of SHRA/TSRA possible
after 19Z, mainly near and north of a KGCN-KSEZ-KJTC line. Periods
of MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts
possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, VRB conditions with light and
VRB winds overnight, becoming SW/W 5-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/00Z through Friday 14/00Z...SCT-NRMS
SHRA/TSRA each day from 19Z-03Z, most likely over the higher
terrain. Some SHRA may linger into the overnight periods. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty outflow winds in excess of 40 kts
possible in and around +TS. Otherwise, daytime winds W/SW 5-15 kts,
becoming light and VRB overnight.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Daily max temps will be
near north to slightly above normal Tuesday, falling to below
normal Wednesday, with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Greatest coverage across the higher terrain.
Stronger storms may contain heavy rain, hail, and gusty/erratic
winds. Outside of storms, expect variable winds around 5-15 mph
Tuesday, becoming west to southwest Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Below normal temperatures with scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms Through at least Friday.
Potential for drying trend starting Saturday. Outside of storms,
expect west to southwest winds around 5-15 mph.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Schank

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff