Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1249 PM MST Mon May 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be on the downturn over most of the area by this evening.
However a few isolated showers are still possible tonight through
Tuesday afternoon across far northeastern Arizona. A trough over
the Great Basin will keep temperatures below average the rest of
the week with increased winds midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level low is currently generating numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the area at this time. A few
storms could be strong at times with strong downburst winds and
some small hail. Precipitation amounts will range from a trace to
a few hundredths of an inch over the high deserts to a quarter to
a third of an inch over the Rim and White Mountains with isolated
areas potentially picking up as much as half an inch. As the low
starts to transit the state heading off to the northeast late this
afternoon and tonight, along with loss of daytime heating, most of
the showers and storms should dissipate. However a few showers
will linger overnight through midday Tuesday as some wrap around
moisture remains over the far northeast corner of the state.

After this low moves out of the area, the region remains under
general troughing as an upper level low parks over the Great
Basin. The low should remain too far north to draw in enough
moisture to give us any precipitation. However it will keep
temperatures 5-10 degrees below late May averages and generate
some breezy conditions Wednesday into Thursday with southwesterly
winds reaching 20-25 mph, gusts 30-40 mph. With RH values trending
a little lower than previously thought midweek we could be
reaching near critical fire conditions over the northeast desert
zones. Will continue to monitor and see if fire weather issues
could be a concern.

By the weekend a ridge building in the center of the country will
put the region under a southwesterly flow aloft which keeps things
dry and brings temperatures back up to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 25/18Z through Tuesday 26/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Expect isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA with brief
periods of MVFR conditions or lower. Gusty/erratic winds in the
vicinity of showers/storms. Activity shifting eastward after 09Z.
Outside of storms, SE to SW winds 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 26/18Z through Thursday 28/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA through 00Z Wednesday over
northeast Arizona. Winds SW at 10-20 kts on Tuesday, increasing
to 15-25 kts gusting to 30-35 kts on Wednesday. Winds will remain
elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms with areas of wetting rain possible along
with cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty/erratic winds through
tonight. Drier air moves in on Tuesday with isolated showers and
thunderstorms lingering toward the Four Corners and along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Expect southeast to southwest winds 5-15
mph gusting to 20 mph today, shifting to south to southwest 10-20
mph gusting to 25 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH decreases to
10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday....Dry with below average temperatures.
Expect south to southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph on
Wednesday and Thursday, diminishing to 5-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph
on Friday. Afternoon minimum RH between 10-20% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff