Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
113 PM MST Mon Jun 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through
this evening. Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions return
for much of this week, with isolated chances for showers across the
higher terrain each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Flow aloft has turned northwesterly, allowing a
slightly drier air mass to work into the region. Today will remain
quite active generally along/south of the Mogollon Rim, with
plenty of moisture present and clear morning skies aiding in
afternoon destabilization. Isolated to scattered activity is
currently firing in these regions as of 1200 MST, and will
continue through the daytime. Storm activity will decline rapidly
this evening, mostly concluding by 2000 MST. Hazards from storms
today include gusty outflow winds, small hail, and lightning.
Heavy rain with flash flooding will also be a concern, especially
within training storms in Yavapai county.

Moisture will continue to diminish through the week, though still
remain well above normal for June. Daily isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Friday,
mostly constrained to the Eastern Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Elsewhere expect warm, dry, and possibly breezy
conditions each day.

With this warming trend, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for
the Grand Canyon below 4000 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Daytime highs will be close to 110 degrees at Phantom Ranch. If
you have plans to be in the canyon, then make sure you are
prepared for hot conditions.

There is confidence in a Pacific trough sweeping out the
lingering moisture this weekend, leading to dry and breezy
conditions. Current LREF ensemble guidance has PW dropping to the
15th-30th percentile on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 15/18Z through Tuesday 16/18Z...SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA and ISO +TSRA this afternoon, mainly along or south of a
KCMR- KFLG-KSJN line. Brief MVFR and erratic, gusty winds to 40
kts near storms. Outside of storms, expect W-NW winds 10-20 kts,
becoming light after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/18Z through Thursday 18/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible each afternoon,
mainly south of a KPRC-KSJN line. SW-NW winds 10-20 kts with
gusts to 25-30 kts on Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts
30-35 kts on Wednesday. Elevated winds overnight Tuesday and
Wednesday east of terrain features.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Look for mainly dry and
warmer weather. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to drop
to isolated, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized
downpours and wind gusts to 40 mph possible with any thunderstorms.
Outside of storms, daytime west to northwest at 10-20 mph are
forecast.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly dry, breezy and turning a bit
cooler. Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Expect southwest winds at 10-
20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph each day. Enhanced fire weather
conditions possible across northeast Arizona each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Wednesday
for AZZ006.

&&

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Zanker
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff