Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST Sun Jun 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures. Warm
temperatures and mostly dry conditions return for next week, with
isolated chances for showers across the higher terrain each
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Increased moisture will remain across the region
through today bringing another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. With skies having cleared out after yesterdays
storms, activity should start to develop by late morning/early
afternoon. PWATs are around 0.5-1.0" across much of the region so
expect any storms that develop to be capable of producing heavy
rainfall. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will
continue to be hazards through this evening. Once the sun sets, we
should see the activity wane across the forecast area.

As we head into tonight, the moisture will start to diminish as dry
air begins to push into the region. The dry air won't fully erode
the moist conditions in place, displacing the moisture off to the
south through the week. While much of the area will dry out this
week, there will remain chances for some showers, mainly across the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Coverage looks to be
isolated at best but we will continue to appreciate any moisture
that we can get. Another aspect of the coming week will be the
increasing daytime temperatures as warmer air settles into the
region with more typical afternoon breezes each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 14/18Z through Monday 15/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA between 18Z-03Z with brief MVFR and
erratic winds gusting 30-40 kts. Daytime winds SW-W 10-15kts,
light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/18Z through Wednesday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA after 18Z on Monday, mainly south
of a KGCN-KRQE line with brief MVFR and erratic winds 30-40 kts.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA on Tuesday, mainly south of a KPAN-KSJN line.
Daytime winds SW-W winds 10-15 kts on Monday, becoming W-NW 10-20
kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, then becoming isolated on
Monday. Any storms that develop are capable of producing wetting
rains and gusty, erratic winds that may reach 30 to 40 mph. Outside
of storms, expect southwesterly winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible in the White Mountains each afternoon. Otherwise, expect
warmer and mostly dry conditions to return. Westerly winds 10 to 20
mph on Tuesday, then becoming southwesterly 10 to 20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff