Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
317 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next thunderstorm chance is Sunday night in southeast North
  Dakota.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Cold front located from near Bemidji thru Detroit Lakes to in
between Wahpeton and Fargo. No precipitation has formed along
the front as of 08z. However behind the front some mid level CU
has grown in height and is producer a shower/t-storms just
southwest of the radar site near Mayville. So will keep an eye
on this. May need a few hour pop for this behind the front
activity. From SPC meso page the activity is closely aligned to
850 mb cold front and an area of 35 kt 0-6 km shear.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...Synopsis...

Fairly strong shortwave moving through Manitoba will help push a
surface trough and cold front down into ND and MN tonight. The
front should be past all but our far southeastern counties by
tomorrow morning, with weak surface high pressure building in
behind the boundary for Friday. Northwesterly flow aloft for
Saturday, with a few of the ensemble members bringing a weak
embedded shortwave and breaking out some precipitation. CAPE
values from the ensemble average out to around 600 J/kg so if
anything does develop severe impacts are not expected.
Northwesterly flow aloft with some additional weak embedded
shortwaves moving through continues into the upcoming work week.
Currently the best probabilities for precipitation over a tenth
of an inch is Sunday night/Monday, but timing and placement could
change with such minor shortwaves.

...Shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and night...

Models continue to show a narrow band of instability out ahead
of the cold front this afternoon across southeastern ND into
western MN. SPC meso analysis has about 500 J/kg, and with a few
more hours of heating ML CAPE could get into the quadruple
digits. Shear is around 30 kts, but a weak shortwave could get a
few cells going that could produce some lightning, brief
downpours, and even a bit of small hail or gusts to 50 mph. The
cold front will drop through later tonight, with some additional
elevated thunderstorms possible but most of the CAMs keep
precipitation post frontal and unimpressive.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A wind shift to the north is occurring at terminals early
tonight as a cold front slides southeastward. A brief period of
wind gusts will follow the frontal passage overnight, before
winds die back down. The north to northwest winds will persist
throughout the remainder of the TAF period, increasing again
Friday late morning, with a couple of terminals acquiring gusts
by afternoon. Before the frontal passage there is a brief window
for LLWS at KFAR and KBJI during the first couple of hours of
the TAF. Ceilings will remain VFR throughout the TAF period.
Afternoon cumulus may develop Friday afternoon, therefore added
in SCT050 at all terminals. Winds will decrease around sunset on
Friday, becoming light and variable.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
918 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-030-039-053-
080230-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Traill-Cass-Richland-
918 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms may develop overnight. Some of these storms
may be strong to severe, with hail and lightning being the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054-080230-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Steele-Barnes-
Ransom-Sargent-Western Walsh-
918 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MNZ001-002-015-NDZ030-070915-
West Polk MN-Norman MN-East Polk MN-Traill ND-
335 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NORMAN...SOUTH CENTRAL
POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN TRAILL COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

At 334 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of thunderstorms
in Traill county about 5 miles north of Hillsboro, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Fertile, Shelly, Beltrami, Nielsville, Lockhart, and
Cummings.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 99 and 114.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4732 9716 4751 9725 4771 9629 4743 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 256DEG 39KT 4750 9688

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Riddle

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
413 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MNZ001-015-016-071000-
West Polk MN-East Polk MN-North Clearwater MN-
413 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND
NORTHWESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM CDT...

At 413 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maple Bay, or 32 miles south of Thief River Falls, moving east at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
McIntosh, Clearbrook, Erskine, Gonvick, Mentor, and Maple Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4767 9534 4750 9640 4750 9645 4766 9654
      4776 9608 4776 9584 4782 9583 4789 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 251DEG 47KT 4764 9618

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Riddle