Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2026
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 2026, 4:18 PM CDT for Cavalier County, Towner County, North Dakota. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 2026, 4:18 PM CDT (21:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2026, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Tornado
- Possible
- Damage threat
- Considerable
- Hail
- 2.5 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Cavalier County, ND, Towner County, ND
The radar
The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 408 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2011 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -53 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 1:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Level 2 out of 5 risk late afternoon and evening today for the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms.
- Dangerous heat index values likely this weekend into Monday. The hottest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees likely.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 1:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
130 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Level 2 out of 5 risk late afternoon and evening today for
the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into
the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary
risk with any storms.
- Dangerous heat index values likely this weekend into Monday.
The hottest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with
heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
...Synopsis...
Strong H5 ridging is developing over the Southwestern CONUS, which
will drift into the Central Rockies, then into the Midwest by late
this weekend. Ahead of this, a weak boundary is slowly moving
eastward into eastern North Dakota this afternoon and evening.
Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the
boundary, with a few severe storms possible through late this
evening. Additional showers and isolated storms linger overnight as
the boundary moves very slowly to the east through midday Friday.
Warmer temperatures begin to build into the area heading into
Saturday, with highs expected to reach the upper 80s Friday
afternoon and the mid-90s Saturday afternoon. Hot and humid
conditions prevail Sunday and Monday, with air temps in the upper
90s to near 100 degrees, and heat index values upwards of 100-110
degrees. Heading into Tuesday, the H5 ridge should start to flatten
and drift westward, allowing northwest flow to return to the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday are still expected to be above average, but with slightly
lower humidity.
...Severe Thunderstorm Chances This Afternoon and Evening...
A slow moving boundary will provide an axis of development for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this
boundary, instability and shear are supportive of strong to severe
thunderstorms as early as mid afternoon. The main uncertainty will
be the timing of initiation, mainly due to ongoing thunderstorm
activity in central North Dakota and the western portions of the
Devils Lake Basin. This activity is providing just enough surface
inhibition in it's wake to potentially delay future convection until
later this afternoon. The overall environment remains supportive of
supercells, capable of all hazards once initiation occurs. Chances
are highest in the Devils Lake Basin, with slightly lower chances
across the Red River Valley.
...Dangerous Heat This Weekend into Monday...
Strong ridging is in the process of strengthening over the Central
Rockies, and is expected to build to the north and east through this
weekend. Anomalous heights upwards of 600dM are being highlighted by
the majority of ensemble members, allowing temps to climb well into
the 90s on Saturday, then approach the 100 degree mark on Sunday and
Monday. With dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat index
values are expected to reach 100 degrees or higher, especially
Sunday and Monday as the ridge axis aligns atop the Northern Plains.
Wet bulb globe temps will climb into the upper 80s Sunday and
Monday, signifying high to extreme categorical heat risk both
days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites
outside of thunderstorm activity. There is a chance for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the vicinity of KDVL and
KGFK late this afternoon and evening. Confidence in coverage is
quite low at this time, thus went with a PROB30 group.
Otherwise, minimal impact potential is expected at this time.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday
night for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday
night for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029-030-040.
&&
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...LynchHazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 2:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 MNZ001-004-007-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-102000- West Polk-Kittson-West Marshall-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks- Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent- 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the northern Red River Valley and northeast North Dakota. Hazards could include hail up to the size of quarters, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Dangerous heat index values likely this weekend into Monday. The hottest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees likely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required today. NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054-102000- Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Western Walsh- 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the northern Red River Valley and northeast North Dakota. Hazards could include hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Dangerous heat index values likely this weekend into Monday. The hottest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees likely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required today. MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ053- 102000- Norman-Clay-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami- Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami- Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Richland- 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Dangerous heat index values likely this weekend into Monday. The hottest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees likely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 1:26 PM CDT | Extreme Heat Watch | FGF | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Grant, Hubbard and 11 more | 48 hr |
| Jul 9, 5:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson | 67 min |
| Jul 9, 5:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier | 63 min |
| Jul 9, 5:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner | 67 min |
| Jul 9, 5:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson, Ramsey, Towner | 57 min |
| Jul 9, 5:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Pembina | 63 min |
| Jul 9, 6:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson | 64 min |
| Jul 9, 6:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Ramsey | 54 min |
| Jul 9, 6:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson, Ramsey | 54 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2026Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.