Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Grand Forks, ND

032 
WWUS53 KFGF 061956
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

MNC077-062015-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-260706T2015Z/
Lake of the Woods MN-
256 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY...

At 255 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Garden Island,
or 41 miles northeast of Roseau, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Garden Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Lake of the Woods, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4912 9477 4909 9475 4899 9472 4900 9515
      4929 9515 4925 9481 4918 9479
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 274DEG 29KT 4911 9494 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 2 out of 5 severe risk Monday afternoon with a primary
  risk for large hail along with secondary risk for strong winds
  and a tornado or two.

- Level 2 out of 5 severe risk Tuesday for hail and damaging
  wind gusts along and south of I-94/HWY 10.

- There is a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding across
  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

As storms initiate along the cold front this afternoon within
the Red River Valley bulk shear perpendicular to the cold front
will favor initially discrete modes will supercells likely.
Purely given the initial storm mode large hail to 1.75" would
be expected and a few tornadoes are possible. Beyond this
surface level evaluation MLCAPE of 2500-3500 j/kg and eff shear
of around 30kts with SR 0-1km flow will support wide inflow
bases and large storms. Combined with high values of CAPE below
the 0C line and hail production may actually be shunted somewhat
decreasing the threat for destructively large hail (> 2.75"). A
limiting factor for the tornado potential this afternoon will
be the slowing backing surface winds which look to become SW
ahead of the cold front creating slightly more crosswise flow in
the lowest 500m (less favorable for tornadoes) though the
chance remains for either terrain induced southerly flow
(southern Valley from Fergus falls to Fargo) or perhaps models
are simply being aggressive in the degree of prefrontal turning
with winds more widely remaining southerly vs SW leading to
more streamwise low level hodographs and supporting a higher
tornado threat as is being advertised by machine learning
solutions like Nadocast and StormNet. Either way the ceiling
today appears to be a few tornadoes up to EF2 intensity and hail
up to 2.5" but a more reasonable expectation my be hail more
widely 1-1.75" and one or two weak tornadoes (if any at all).
Upscale growth is then likely as storms work southeast into
west central Minnesota with peak winds of 50-60 mph possible
though perhaps limited by DCAPE of only 700-900 j/kg.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...Synopsis...

Clear skies prevail across much of the area this afternoon along
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. We are still looking
at the possibility for showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight,
then once more on Monday as a series of weak shortwaves traverse the
region. Given the overall slow movement of the waves, the risk for
flash flooding begins to become a concern, especially moving into
Monday afternoon and evening. Cooler air moves into the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest heading into Tuesday, bringing high temps
into the range of averages for early July. Several shortwaves are
being highlighted across various ensemble members Wednesday through
Friday as zonal flow brings progressive waves through the area. The
main uncertainty will be timing of the shortwaves, which could
justify a mention of strong storms if they line up with peak diurnal
heating. Looking into Friday and the weekend, there is increasing
confidence in a return to higher temps as ridging builds back into
the area.

...Severe Chances Tonight and Monday...

A slow moving shortwave will provide an axis of development for
showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight in central
North Dakota. These storms are expected to move eastward as the
shortwave moves into eastern North Dakota overnight and into early
Monday morning. Guidance is showing the better chances for strong to
severe storms holding close to the main theta-e axis during the
overnight period. Soundings continue to support mainly a hail risk,
with a lower chance for wind gusts through early Monday morning.
Additional storms are expected Monday afternoon and evening as this
boundary continues eastward. The axis of development is favoring
areas of eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley Monday
afternoon and evening. The primary hazard Monday afternoon and
evening will be hail, with secondary risks including damaging wind
gusts and possibly an isolated tornado.

...Severe Thunderstorm and Flash Flood Chances Tuesday...

Heading into Tuesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms
will bring the potential for hail, damaging wind gusts, and flash
flooding into parts of the region. The best chances look to be along
and south of the I-94 corridor at this time. Initiation favors the
area including south central and southeast North Dakota, with storms
moving from west to east parallel to the initiating theta-e gradient
boundary. This could set the stage for thunderstorms that traverse
the same areas repeatedly through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR skies this morning will eventually give way to
thunderstorms/rain at all sites this afternoon with ceilings in
the case of a storms impacting the taf site around 4-5kft.
Winds go from south/southwest this morning at all sites to NW/N
behind the cold front this afternoon. Generally 10-15kts with
gusts as 20kts but otherwise minimal impacts to operations when
sites are not seeing thunderstorm activity this afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
428 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-070930-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
428 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023-NDZ008-016-026>030-054-070930-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Western Walsh-
428 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 severe risk this afternoon with a
primary risk for large hail along with secondary risk for strong
winds and a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ003-024-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-070930-
Clay-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
428 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 severe risk this afternoon with a
primary risk for large hail along with secondary risk for strong
winds and a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a level 2 out of 5 severe risk Tuesday for large hail
and damaging wind gusts along and south of I-94/HWY 10.

There is a level 2 of 4 risk for flash flooding across southeast
North Dakota and west central Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.