Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
358 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms in the southern Red River
  Valley into lakes country of west- central and north-central
  Minnesota. The main hazards will be hail to the size of
  quarters and gusty winds to 55 mph.

- Fourth of July afternoon holds medium chance for widely
  scattered thunderstorms. Main hazard is lightning, with very
  low chance of storms being severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...Synopsis...

Broad, weak upper troughing in the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains will provide transient forcing aloft, while also keeping
sufficient moisture and instability for thunderstorm chances
this and tomorrow afternoons into early evenings. Coverage is
expected to be isolated to scattered given lackluster forcing
overall. A few storms may be strong to severe, mainly in
Minnesota, this afternoon. While there is medium chance for
storms Fourth of July afternoon/early evening, strong to severe
storms are not anticipated at this time - mainly due to lack of
shear and better forcing.

Into next week, this upper troughing flattens with the approach
of an upper jet into the Pacific Northwest, concurrent with
upper ridging attempting to build in the Southwest by late next
week. This places the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest toward
the northern periphery of the eventual upper ridging. This
pattern shift starts with a cold front to move through the
region Monday, offering perhaps more widespread coverage of
showers and storms. This includes potential for storms to be
strong to perhaps severe, although more likely to be on the
lower end-severe if at all.

Embedded impulses of energy moving through the flow mid to late
next week will offer almost daily opportunities for showers and
storms, although uncertainty exists in moisture availability
for thunderstorms behind Monday's cold front. This is also
nearing the end of the predictability horizon with respect to
thunderstorm details.

...Strong to severe storm potential this afternoon...

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook lowered coverage of the level 1 of
5 risk area, confined now to portions of north-central, west-
central MN, and southern Red River Valley. Isolated strong to
severe storms remain possible within this area, capable of small
hail up to 1 inch and gusts to 40-55 mph. Warm low level and
slightly above average overall moisture availability may allow
for brief heavy rain, potentially leading to isolated minor
flooding - especially if this occurs over urban area (e.g.
Bemidji).

This area generally holds today's thunderstorm chances with
help from low level convergence concurrent with weak, transient
mid level wave moving northeast out of SD. With overall
instability will be on the weak to moderate side and little if
any shear to organize storms, storms are expected to follow the
mean flow toward the east-northeast, with tendency to also
propagate toward their outflow boundaries. Additionally,
expecting storms to behave in a pulse-like fashion.

...Fourth of July...

Weak to perhaps moderate instability still should remain across
the region for the 4th of July, but the upper flow pattern
again is very weak. Due to the ongoing festivities and outdoor
activities for the 4th, we do want to note that there is the
potential for heavy rainfall/showers and thunderstorms. However,
there is very high uncertainty in the scope of showers and
thunderstorms as this will largely depend on antecedent
convection dropping outflow boundaries/convergent zones.

With the lack of flow aloft as well, storms may be stationary
in some locations, so minor flooding couldn't be ruled out,
especially if this occurs over urban landscapes. Overall this
carries very low predictability. There is currently a 40%
chance of showers/storms by the afternoon across the entire
area, although the spatial extent of storms should remain
scattered.

Severe storm potential is very low thanks to very weak shear
and lack of better forcing.

Heat impacts are not expected with temperatures in the 70s to
low 80s, dew points in the low 60s, and generally partly to
mostly cloudy skies keeping sun-related impacts low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast within the TAF period through 06Z.
Mix of high altitude clouds and lower cumulus (still VFR) will
continue this afternoon into early evening. Afternoon
thunderstorms are forecast in portions of southeast ND into
west-central and northwest MN. Included PROB30 at KBJI for
thunderstorm potential. Storms may be strong capable of
producing small hail and erratic, brief gusty winds between 40
to 50 kt, in addition to lightning.

After 06Z, there is a low to medium chance for MVFR to perhaps
IFR ceilings, although confidence is not high in this occurring.
Relatively highest chance to this occur resides in eastern ND
(including KDVL) and central MN (including KBJI). There is also
a low chance for fog to develop between 08Z-14Z, including
potential for dense fog - this also is low in confidence.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CJ/Perroux
AVIATION...CJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

MNZ004>008-013-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-049-052-054-
042045-
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-
Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Ransom-
Sargent-Western Walsh-
335 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms expected across the region this afternoon.
The main hazard will be lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms may develop Fourth of July afternoon and
early evening. Main hazard will be lightning

Daily thunderstorm chances exist next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ001>003-009-014>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-053-042045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-North Beltrami-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Wadena-Grant-Cass-Richland-
335 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms in the
southern Red River Valley into lakes country of west-central and
north-central Minnesota. The main hazards will be hail to the size
of quarters and gusty winds to 55 mph.

General storm motion...Moving toward the east at 20 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms may develop Fourth of July afternoon and
early evening. Main hazard will be lightning.

Daily thunderstorm chances exist next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.