Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms later today. Tornadoes, damaging wind, and large
  hail  are all possible. A few tornadoes could be strong.

- Heat Advisory through 8pm this evening for the Southern  Red River
  Valley and west central Minnesota.

- Potential for heat impacts mid-week and into the Fourth of  July
  weekend, along with chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Today and tonight...the to main concern is severe weather from
thunderstorms across most of the area with a secondary threat of
heat across the southern part of the Red River Valley.

Starting with severe storms, damaging wind, large hail, and
tornadoes are all possible this afternoon into the evening. The most
concerning aspect is the elevated values of low level helicity in
the wrapped up triple point along and north of a surface low
pressure system. Storms that form in this environment will have low
cloud bases, and plenty of veering winds in the low level that will
support a tornadic threat this afternoon and into the evening. A
tornado watch was issued around 2pm through 10 pm. There could be
multiple rounds of storms, so please make sure you are able to
receive any warnings that are issued.

Meanwhile, a heat advisory continues this afternoon and this evening.
The morning convection did temper temperatures a bit, the humid air
mass will still support heat indices near 90 to 95 degrees. Temperatures
will cool off this evening, and storm will exit to the north as drier
air moves across the region overnight.

Tuesday through Sunday...The cooler and drier air will keep highs only in
the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday, with a gradual warm up to the 80s the
rest of the week. Thursday and Friday could see a few 90s across the Red
River Valley.

Meanwhile, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, but thunderstorm chances
return for Thursday and the rest of the week as southerly flow advects
increased moisture back across the region. Continued with the blended
guidance which shows the highest thunderstorm chances Thursday night
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Main concern for aviation this afternoon and evening remains
thunderstorms, which will carry a risk of large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes. CAMs and other high-res guidance continue to
struggle a bit to accurately reflect what is currently happening on
radar and to agree on timing going forward...leaned slightly heavier
on radar trends and recent HRRR runs for timing. Carrying PROB30
groups everywhere except KDVL where predominant storms are about to
push into the terminal from the southwest. Drops to MVFR cigs/vsbys
will be possible near/under thunderstorms as reflected in the
PROB30s (and these have been calibrated/nudged based on upstream
observations at other airports) along with the above mentioned
hazards. Additional AMDs may continue to be necessary based on radar
and observation trends. Consensus improves in the guidance with
respect to end time with storms expected to exit to the east-
northeast between 04-06z this evening depending on the terminal,
with VFR conditions then expected and skies largely clearing.
Southwest winds are expected to ramp up Tuesday morning and last
throughout the day with mostly sunny/clear and dry conditions, with
high forecast confidence.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ039-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-024-
     027>032-040.
     Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ009-017-024-
     032.

&&

DISCUSSION...FGF
AVIATION...FGF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
326 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-023-024-032-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
038-054-302030-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Western Walsh-
326 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon through this evening. Hazards could include large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms return late this week.

Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of
July weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ002-003-022-027>031-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-302030-
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-
326 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon through this evening. Hazards could include large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.

Heat Advisory in effect Monday: Noon to 8pm for the Southern
Red River Valley and west central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms return late this week.

Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of
July weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     Hail             3 NNW Baker             48.20N 99.68W
06/29/2026  M1.00 Inch       Benson             ND   Public

            Delayed Report.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
824 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Hail             Moorhead                46.87N 96.75W
06/29/2026  M1.75 Inch       Clay               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
831 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     Hail             5 ENE Horace            46.79N 96.80W
06/29/2026  E1.25 Inch       Cass               ND   Public

            Relayed via mPING.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
841 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Hail             1 NE Moorhead           46.87N 96.74W
06/29/2026  M1.75 Inch       Clay               MN   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
852 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Hail             2 SSW Moorhead          46.83N 96.78W
06/29/2026  E3.00 Inch       Clay               MN   Public

            Time estimated via radar.

&&