Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon into early evening, mainly along and east of the Red
  River Valley. The main hazards will be hail up to the size of
  golfs balls and tornadoes.

- Growing signal for strong to severe storms late this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...Synopsis...

The system seen on water vapor imagery across southern Manitoba has
become occluded and will very slowly propagate east/southeast.
Large scale pattern will become zonal toward the end of the
week, and then transition to southwest flow aloft by early next
week as western CONUS troughing develops. Ensemble guidance in
good agreement with how the large scale pattern will evolve,
albeit with lower confidence in smaller scale features.

..Severe storm potential today...

Warm sector/theta-e ridge will be near or just east of the valley by
early afternoon, with CI anticipated along the leading edge of this
boundary early-mid afternoon. Given expected storm motion off the
boundary, anticipate discrete mode. Environment will be
supportive of supercell type storms (albeit low topped given
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) given effective bulk shear near 30 kts
and effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 (environment supportive for
stronger low level mesocyclones). Severe hail up to golf balls
anticipated given straight hodograph structure, lower freezing
level, and favorable mid level lapse rates. Also anticipate
tornadoes given the favorable low level dynamics. AI guidance
(Nadocast and Storm Net) back up this thinking.

The most likely scenario at time has the stronger discrete low
topped supercell storms developing early afternoon (1-3p) along
the eastern edge of the valley affecting much of northwest and
west central Minnesota through 6-7p. There should be 2-5 storms
at any given time. This is the period when low topped
supercells will bring the largest hail and tornado threat. There
is the potential for additional development closer to the sfc
low/upper low later in the afternoon affecting the northern
valley into northwest Minnesota, although more uncertainty
exists with this activity.

...Weekend into early next week severe potential...

The synoptic ingredients typical for producing severe storms in our
region will be in place - and conceptually the large scale pattern
supports severe storm outbreaks. Details are always the tricky part,
especially where individual upper waves track and how far east the
greater instability will be. There does remain some uncertainty with
exactly how amplified the large scale pattern will be and this will
influence those details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening,
mainly across the northern Red River Valley and northwest
Minnesota. KTVF and KBJI have the better chances to see
thunderstorm activity, thus a continuation of PROB30 into late
this evening. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR to MVFR ceilings
prevail into the early overnight period. Lower ceilings are
still expected across a large portion of the area heading into
Wednesday morning, with MVFR CIGs possible at all sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-241115-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Hail up to the size of golf balls and
tornadoes will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a medium chance for strong thunderstorms late Saturday
and Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
158 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ004-007-NDZ006>008-015-016-054-232200-
Kittson-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Hallock, Warren, Cando, Langdon,
Cavalier, Drayton, Devils Lake, Grafton, and Lankin
158 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...FUNNEL CLOUD POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across
far northeast North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley.
Conditions are favorable for funnel clouds with any thunderstorm
that develops within this area. These types of funnel clouds are
usually short lived, however, they can and occasionally do touch
the ground and cause minor damage. Therefore, if you see a funnel
cloud, take cover immediately.

South of this area, conditions are favorable for stronger storms.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
232 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 N East Grand Forks    47.98N 97.01W
06/23/2026                   Polk               MN   Trained Spotter

            Funnel cloud spotted north of town extending
            about 1/3 of the way to the ground.

&&

TT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Hail             2 E Herman              45.82N 96.10W
06/23/2026  M0.25 Inch       Grant              MN   Emergency Mngr

&&

TT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
511 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Hail             4 NNE Richwood          47.02N 95.79W
06/23/2026  E1.25 Inch       Becker             MN   Trained Spotter

            Time estimated from radar. Noted lots of
            smaller hail with a few stones larger than
            quarters.

&&

TT