Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon into early evening, mainly along and east of the Red
  River Valley. The main hazards will be hail up to the size of
  golfs balls and tornadoes.

- Growing signal for strong to severe storms late this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...Synopsis...

The system seen on water vapor imagery across southern Manitoba has
become occluded and will very slowly propagate east/southeast.
Large scale pattern will become zonal toward the end of the
week, and then transition to southwest flow aloft by early next
week as western CONUS troughing develops. Ensemble guidance in
good agreement with how the large scale pattern will evolve,
albeit with lower confidence in smaller scale features.

..Severe storm potential today...

Warm sector/theta-e ridge will be near or just east of the valley by
early afternoon, with CI anticipated along the leading edge of this
boundary early-mid afternoon. Given expected storm motion off the
boundary, anticipate discrete mode. Environment will be
supportive of supercell type storms (albeit low topped given
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) given effective bulk shear near 30 kts
and effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 (environment supportive for
stronger low level mesocyclones). Severe hail up to golf balls
anticipated given straight hodograph structure, lower freezing
level, and favorable mid level lapse rates. Also anticipate
tornadoes given the favorable low level dynamics. AI guidance
(Nadocast and Storm Net) back up this thinking.

The most likely scenario at time has the stronger discrete low
topped supercell storms developing early afternoon (1-3p) along
the eastern edge of the valley affecting much of northwest and
west central Minnesota through 6-7p. There should be 2-5 storms
at any given time. This is the period when low topped
supercells will bring the largest hail and tornado threat. There
is the potential for additional development closer to the sfc
low/upper low later in the afternoon affecting the northern
valley into northwest Minnesota, although more uncertainty
exists with this activity.

...Weekend into early next week severe potential...

The synoptic ingredients typical for producing severe storms in our
region will be in place - and conceptually the large scale pattern
supports severe storm outbreaks. Details are always the tricky part,
especially where individual upper waves track and how far east the
greater instability will be. There does remain some uncertainty with
exactly how amplified the large scale pattern will be and this will
influence those details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers/storms currently moving off the east and will be clear
of all TAF sites by 18z. A narrow area of MVFR cigs now just
east of the valley will affect KTVF and KBJI for a brief period
this afternoon, although most likely cigs will eventually become
low VFR. Main aviation threat will be additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon into the evening. Storm coverage
will be limited making thunderstorm forecasting for each
individual TAF site tricky. Went with a Prob30 for the sites
that have the best chance to see a storm or two (KGFK, KTVF, and
KBJI).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-241115-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Hail up to the size of golf balls and
tornadoes will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a medium chance for strong thunderstorms late Saturday
and Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1104 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Breckenridge        46.29N 96.59W
06/23/2026                   Wilkin             MN   Public

            All of a sudden things started hitting the
            house. Many trees down, a fence down,
            shingle off and holes in the siding. The
            neighboring corn field is stripped a
            complete loss.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1114 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ031-231645-
East Otter Tail MN-
1114 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...

At 1113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Parkers Prairie, or 19 miles
north of Alexandria, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Parkers Prairie, Urbank, Almora, and Wrightstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4627 9549 4639 9516 4628 9515 4611 9515
      4611 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 252DEG 32KT 4618 9540

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
158 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ004-007-NDZ006>008-015-016-054-232200-
Kittson-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Ramsey-
Eastern Walsh-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Hallock, Warren, Cando, Langdon,
Cavalier, Drayton, Devils Lake, Grafton, and Lankin
158 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...FUNNEL CLOUD POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across
far northeast North Dakota and the northern Red River Valley.
Conditions are favorable for funnel clouds with any thunderstorm
that develops within this area. These types of funnel clouds are
usually short lived, however, they can and occasionally do touch
the ground and cause minor damage. Therefore, if you see a funnel
cloud, take cover immediately.

South of this area, conditions are favorable for stronger storms.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
232 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 N East Grand Forks    47.98N 97.01W
06/23/2026                   Polk               MN   Trained Spotter

            Funnel cloud spotted north of town extending
            about 1/3 of the way to the ground.

&&

TT