Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a few showers and thunderstorms on Friday, temperatures
  will slowly warm to near 80 by late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Showers continue to move from west to east this morning, with
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and light winds. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with a
few strong to severe storms possible. Support for severe
thunderstorms is greatest in west central Minnesota, where the
strongest storms could bring hazards to include 1 inch hail and
wind gusts to 60 mph. A few strong storms are possible in other
areas as well, with small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow remains in place over the Northern High Plains and
Upper Midwest this afternoon. Embedded in northwesterly flow will
be a handful of weak waves. The most prominent shortwave
propagates through Friday. As it tracks through, a few showers
and thunderstorms are forecasted to develop. Several more weak
waves will traverse the region late this weekend into early next
week as northwest to zonal flow continues. This will bring
additional low chances for showers and thunderstorms to start
the work week.

Temperatures will remain cooler then average throughout much of the
forecast period, although by mid to late next week the pattern does
shift as ridging builds in. This will finally help us get
temperatures back to near average by Thursday. While there are some
differences from ensemble member to ensemble member of the ridges
strength, there is surprisingly little spread in temperatures from
the NBM. For example, at KGFK, the 25th and 75 percentiles for next
Thursday are 75 and 80 degrees. Average for the date is 78 degrees.
So, while warmer then the current cool spell we are experiencing,
even ridging will only bring temperatures up to near average.

...Showers and Thunderstorms Friday...

A wave propagating southeastward from Saskatchewan Thursday night
quickly into Minnesota by Friday afternoon will be the trigger for
shower and thunderstorm development beginning tonight. As the low
swings through the FA late Friday morning into the afternoon, an
airmass characterized by up to 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE and 20 to 30
knots of effective shear will allow for showers and thunderstorms to
blossom. The speed at which the low tracks through the FA will
determine where the strongest thunderstorms initiate. A quicker
low will whisk much of the instability eastward by afternoon,
leaving all but our far southeastern counties with any chance
for a stronger storm. A slower system would allow instability to
remain over more of the region, and storms to develop further
west, probably closer to the MN side of the Red River Valley.
The best overlap in shear and instability in either scenario is
in west central MN (Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wadena, Fergus
Falls areas). If a thunderstorm were to become strong to
marginally severe, it would be in this region during the mid to
late afternoon hours, with just sufficient speed shear for hail
to be the primary threat. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center
has placed our far southeastern counties in a marginal, level 1
out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions prevail this morning across the area.
Scattered showers are bringing MVFR conditions to KFAR and
KDVL; however, this could extend to other sites briefly during
periodic shower activity through late this morning. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Most
shower and thunderstorm activity will move to the east of the
area by late this evening. Winds will remain out of the west to
northwest through this evening before becoming tapering off
during the late evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
338 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-200845-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
338 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms in
west-central Minnesota. The main hazards will be hail up to
quarter size and brief gusty winds.

Scattered thunderstorms across the region tomorrow afternoon will
bring lightning impacts for all outdoor activities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.