Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1254 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
  evening northwest Minnesota.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop late this
  afternoon into the evening across southeast North Dakota and
  west central Minnesota with hail, wind, and lightning.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected this week, with
  near record highs today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Updated key messages. SPS issued for near critical fire weather
conditions for this afternoon and early evening in northwest
Minnesota where RH values will be in the low to mid 20s percent.
A weak frontal boundary will exist late today from southeast ND
into central MN with mixed layer CAPES 1500-2000 j/kg with risk
of a few storms developing. 0-6 km shear 25 kt range, so
marginal for organized storms and severe weather. Hazards would
be hail 0.50 to 1 inch and wind gusts 45-60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...Synopsis...

A strengthening mid/upper level ridge is currently extending
along and east of the Northern Rockies into the Canadian
Prairies, with rising heights and west-northwest downslope flow
ahead of a frontal zone supporting well above average
temperatures. This ridge will continue to strengthen and amplify
as it becomes centered over our CWA, persisting into the
upcoming weekend, and potentially beyond. Outside of Tuesday,
the probability for measurable precipitation or thunderstorms is
very low.

There are clusters that show ridge weakening some this weekend
into next week, however with the ridge axis remaining centered
over our CWA even the clusters that weaken it the most keep
favorable storm tracks well west of our region, lowering
confidence in measurable precipitation chances in the extended
periods. As the ridge weakens there could be a general "cooling
trend" at least compared to early week, but above average
temperatures remain well established across our CWA into early
June.

...Near critical fire weather conditions...

RH values (aided by temperatures in the lower 90s) have fallen
into the teens to middle 20s across much of our CWA. Winds are
highly variable though as a prefrontal trough axis followed by
a front move through the region. The air mass is technically
cooler behind this front but still very warm. Where fuels are
drier/more problematic near critical fire weather conditions are
expected through early evening. East-southeast flow along a
stalled frontal zone will bring increasing BL Tds into the
region Tuesday and Wednesday, which should keep RH values above
25% for much of our region. The exception is towards north
central MN where there is still a chance for Tds to mix low
enough to support near critical conditions. This is worth
monitoring as both Tuesday and Wednesday feature the potential
for gustier winds than today.

...Isolated strong thunderstorms Tuesday...

CAMs support the signal in global models/ensembles that
scattered thunderstorms should develop as the CAP weakens near
the frontal zone stalled over our CWA late Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. Steep mid level lapse rates should be in place,
and guidance that favors Tds over 60F also show more robust
thermodynamic profiles and the potential for MUCAPE values to
exceed 2000 J/KG. Shear is trickier as initially weaker flow
under the ridge axis limits effective shear (generally 25kt or
less) and convection may remain more pulsy in nature. However
there is a signal for a building LLJ (mainly in ND) during the
evening hours and hodographs/effective shear 30kt+ and even with
lower CAPE values in the 1000-15000 J/KG this could support a
risk for marginally severe hail, though coverage would be
limited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for most locations across eastern
ND and northwest MN through the TAF period. The exception will
be where thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and evening
where visibilities could be reduced to MVFR or even IFR.
Coverage along the frontal zone will tend to be scattered in
relation to shower/thunderstorm coverage, with severe
thunderstorm potential in southeast ND and west central MN
isolated in nature. The highest probability for any
thunderstorms to impact terminals (30-50%) would be at KFAR and
KDVL during the evening and early overnight hours. Winds are
generally from the east-southeast 10-15kt with periodic gusts
around 20kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
544 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ003-027>032-040-NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-
053-271045-
Clay-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-
Griggs-Steele-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
544 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be hail to 1
inch, 60 mph wind gusts and lightning. Coverage of severe storms
will be isolated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-NDZ007-008-016-027-030-054-
271045-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
Cavalier-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Traill-Western Walsh-
544 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
evening due to low relative humidity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.