Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
803 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
  hazard, with lower chances for hail and tornadoes.

- There is a 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday
  afternoon and evening.

- There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon through Wednesday morning. All hazards are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Strongest winds across our west are well under advisory criteria
and with sunset approaching the probability for gusts 45 mph+
from synoptic winds/mixing has ended within the advised area.
The Wind Advisory was allowed to expire as scheduled at 8pm.

There have been a couple pockets of isolated weak thunderstorms
in southeast ND and west central MN with this activity quickly
weakening with sunset. We are continuing to monitor upstream
activity to the west which is timed out to approach the Devils
Lake Basin closer to midnight. There is still a chance that some
of this activity will carry a severe wind risk, though guidance
continues to trend towards rapid weakening of any ongoing
thunderstorms as they enter our CWA as the environment in latest
guidance after 03Z is much less supportive of a sustained severe
risk farther east.

Evolution of the activity as it approaches and ultimate how
quickly our CWA stabilizes ahead of any clusters or thunderstorm
lines will determine severe potential and we will continue to
monitor trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...Synopsis...

Temperatures this afternoon are reaching the upper 80s to low 90s,
with the expectation of 90-95 degrees in the next several hours.
Heat index values are expected to top out just below 100 degrees in
the Red River Valley this afternoon. Tonight's temps will cool into
the 60s to near 70 degrees, but will depend on shower and
thunderstorm activity. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to form in western and central North Dakota this afternoon
and evening, then move east during the late evening and overnight.
Another boundary lifts northward along a low level jet, bringing
additional showers and storms into much of west central and
northwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong storms will be possible
through Monday morning. Slightly cooler highs are expected Monday,
with widespread upper 70s to mid 80s.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Tonight through Wednesday...

Late Evening through Monday Morning: Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in western and central North Dakota this afternoon, then
move into eastern North Dakota this evening and overnight. At this
time, there is uncertainty with regards to how strong these storms
will be once they enter the region. MLCAPE values along the axis are
ranging from 3000-3500 J/Kg in northwest North Dakota; however, many
of the storms are likely to move away from this axis upon
development. Conditions become slightly less favorable for MCS
maintenance further to the east, as low to mid level shear fall
quickly in eastern North Dakota. The most likely scenario for severe
storms this evening will be a weakening line of severe storms, with
the most likely hazard being damaging wind gusts (potentially
significant) and hail. DCAPE values are upwards of 1500 J/Kg across
much of the state through at least late evening, allowing the rapid
progression of any storms still ongoing as they move into the Devils
Lake Basin. As this feature moves east, another area of showers and
storms is expected to form in northwest Minnesota and west central
Minnesota. These storms could bring strong, if not occasionally
severe impacts to that area overnight and into early Monday morning,
with large hail and wind gusts upwards of 60 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture advection remains strong heading
into Tuesday as low level flow increases out of the south. SBCAPE in
model soundings ranges from 3000 J/Kg to 4000 J/Kg, with low to mid
level shear ranging from 20 to 40 knots. Guidance has been
consistent over the past several runs, with good support for
Supercell development just west of the CWA Tuesday afternoon. Strong
environmental support exists for rapid upscale development into a
linear MCS or QLCS. Model soundings show strong support for all
hazards across a large portion of eastern North Dakota, northwest
Minnesota, and west central Minnesota. DCAPE values, effective
shear, lapse rates, and CAPE are all within a range that encourage
MCS maintenance through the late afternoon, evening, and early
overnight. As such, a mention of damaging wind gusts (potentially
significant), tornadoes, and large hail are all supported.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions with south-southeast winds 15-25kt should
initially prevail this evening. isolated thunderstorms have
development over parts of eastern ND and west central MN,
however impacts with this early activity are going to remain
much more localized with lower chances (less than 30%) at TAF
sites. Better shower and thunderstorm chances overspread the
region late this evening into the morning hours as two different
systems move through the region (one from western ND and the
other from southern MN. The best chance for severe winds would
be late this evening/early overnight in the KDVL region.

As several fronts pass through the region shower and
thunderstorm chances decrease Monday morning, however a period
of stratus (MVFR and locally IFR) may impact the region before
improving back to VFR west to east Monday afternoon. Winds shift
to the southwest then west-northwest as these fronts pass
through the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
813 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-
039-049-052-053-090115-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
813 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the
region after midnight tonight through early Monday morning. The
main threat will be lighting and brief wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening across far southeast North Dakota and parts
of west central Minnesota. Hazards include hail to the size of
golf balls, wind gusts to 70 mph, and a low chance for tornadoes.

There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. Hazards include the potential
for wind gusts up to 80 mph, hail to the size of tennis balls,
and tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054-090115-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Griggs-Western Walsh-
813 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday evening
and overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard,
with lower chances for hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. Hazards include the potential
for wind gusts up to 80 mph, hail to the size of tennis balls,
and tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required tonight.