Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Grand Forks, ND

849 
WWUS53 KFGF 230341
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1041 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDC019-063-067-071-099-230351-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260423T0345Z/
Cavalier ND-Nelson ND-Ramsey ND-Walsh ND-Pembina ND-
1041 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER...
NORTHERN NELSON...EASTERN RAMSEY...WALSH AND SOUTHERN PEMBINA
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 4829 9716 4819 9772 4820 9790 4816 9791
      4802 9869 4851 9871 4875 9723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 270DEG 34KT 4831 9839 4869 9681 

$$

Perroux

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
626 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased fire weather concerns for today and Thursday,
  including periods of critical fire weather conditions.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms late this
  afternoon into evening within portions of eastern North
  Dakota. An additional level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms
  exists Thursday afternoon in Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Scattered showers have formed on the periphery of a low-level
jet max. Occasional lightning and severe wind gusts have been
observed, but these appear to be fairly sparse at this time.
There is the potential for this to push into the Sheyenne River
Valley over the next 1-2 hours bringing the risk of severe wind
gusts. More organized forcing remains upstream closer to the
vort max in western South Dakota, but that should also be
pushing north this evening and overnight. At this point, the
greatest chance for severe storms is between 7 PM and 12 AM.

On the fire side, brief increases in relative humidity are
ongoing along a tongue of increase dewpoints, however lower
dewpoints are expected to replace them over the next few hours.
Having said that, diurnal cooling should increase relative
humidity values towards 50% or greater overnight. Winds will
continue through the overnight period, so elevated fire concerns
will continue through tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...Synopsis...

Well developed and strong upper trough/low is observed over the
Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West this afternoon, with
downstream upper ridging over the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a strong low pressure resides in
eastern MT, wrapped in a tight pressure gradient. This is
helping bring gusty winds and well above average temperatures
to the region, fueling fire weather concerns today.

The strong surface low migrates its way into south-central CAN
tonight into Thursday before weakening while still meandering in
south-central CAN Friday. This will sweep a series of fronts
that will continue gusty winds through Friday, as well as drive
fire weather concerns Thursday. Overall moisture content for
showers and thunderstorms is limited, there is still enough
forcing and sufficient instability to allow for the potential
for scattered light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms late
this afternoon into evening, and again Thursday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will hold a risk for severe storms during
both of these periods.

Heading into the weekend, ensemble guidance strongly agrees in
the well developed upper low to meander around southern Prairie
Provinces of CAN. This will help trend our region's temperatures
toward average to below average behind Thursday evening's cold
front. Ensemble guidance also agrees in a shortwave trough aloft
passing through the southern flank of the upper low over our
region around Sunday, allowing for a period of precipitation. At
this time, rain appears to be the most likely type. However,
there is still a low chance some of this precipitation could
fall as snow. While there is a small subset of guidance that
allows for snow between 1-4 inches, the chance for winter
impacts is very low due to relatively warm temperatures
limiting accumulation efficiency.

Into next week, ensemble guidance continues general upper
troughing over our region amid quasi-southwest to zonal flow
aloft. This will promote continue near to below average
temperatures, as well as progressive intervals of light
precipitation, most likely to fall as rain rather than snow.

...Fire weather concerns...

Critical fire weather conditions are forecast through late this
afternoon for portions of southeast ND into west-central and
north-central MN. This is driven by gusty southeast winds 20-30
mph and very warm temperatures with afternoon RH values in the
20-25 percent in these areas, with even some RH values dipping
into the teens closer to central MN. There is a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for the regions most likely to experience
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Elsewhere today, near critical conditions are forecast with
similar RH values in the 17-25 percent range, although lesser
winds in the 15-25 mph range.

While RH values will trend upward this evening, they are
forecast to stay below 50 percent, meaning less recovery in RH.
Winds will also stay elevated in the 15-25 mph range this
evening still out of the south- southeast. Additionally, this
evening features a chance for isolated thunderstorms, of which
may be dry thunderstorms capable of lightning and brief gusty
winds to 50 mph with little rainfall. These aspects continue
increased fire weather concerns through the overnight hours
tonight, and ahead of Thursday's fire weather conditions.

For Thursday, multiple frontal passages and periods of gusty winds
introduces the potential for additional fire weather concerns,
including an additional period of critical fire weather
conditions. During the daytime, a front moves west to east
across the area shifting winds from south-southeast to more
southwesterly around 15-25 mph (although confidence is low in
strength of winds at this time).

Behind this first front Thursday, RH values will dip markedly,
as low as the mid teens, with temperatures reach back into the
70s. A second, true cold front moves through late afternoon
into evening, increasing winds out of the west 25-40 mph, with
RH values increasing over 40-60 percent due to falling
temperatures behind the cold front.

There may be a need for Fire Weather Watch / Red Flag Warning
on Thursday due to the reasons mentioned above.

...Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms...

Late this afternoon into evening, there is a medium chance for
thunderstorms within eastern ND, generally between 7pm to
Midnight. These storms may be capable of bringing gusty winds to
60 mph with the help of a very well mixed boundary layer and
strong winds in the low to mid portion of the cloud bearing
layer. A few instances of small hail up to 1 inch may also
accompany these storms.

Getting into Thursday, a 'dryline-like' frontal feature pushes
through the area during the day across the region. By peak
daytime heating, the front is forecast to be within Minnesota.
Forcing for ascent along the front may be enough to spark
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon within portions of
Minnesota, more likely to be east of the Highway 59 corridor.
Sufficient shear and instability will allow for potential of
hail to 1 inch and gusty winds to 60 mph. There is also still
potential for a brief tornado as low level moisture/instability
as well as favorable shear for low level rotation and venting
aloft remains advertised by a subset of CAMs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Scattered showers this evening may bring gusty and erratic
winds, with the potential for gusts to exceed 50 knots. These
should be fairly isolated so the probability of TAF site impacts
is low. Occasional lightning may develop with some showers as
well, but should remain very isolated. VFR conditions will
prevail through the overnight period with winds remaining
elevated and shifting clockwise towards more southerly and
southwesterly through late tomorrow morning. Around BJI,
lowering ceilings are expected to develop with MVFR ceilings
prevailing through the afternoon. Winds will shift to westerly
through the afternoon and increase to sustained winds around
20-30 knots, with gusts approaching 40-45 knots at times. The
front should be through most TAF sites (with the exception of
BJI) towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ049-052-
     053.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ017-024-
     028>032-040.

&&

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
526 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MNZ001>004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054-231030-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Western Walsh-
526 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions today. Isolated
thunderstorms possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday. The probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low Friday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-231030-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-
Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
526 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical or near critical fire weather conditions today into this
evening.   Chance for a thunderstorm tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
Thursday. The main hazards will be hail to 1 inch and wind gusts
to 60 mph and perhaps a tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ029-NDZ049-052-053-231030-
Wilkin-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
526 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions today. Chance for a thunderstorm
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chance for a thunderstorm Thursday. Otherwise the probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
842 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDZ014-015-024-026>028-230215-
Griggs ND-Nelson ND-Eddy ND-Benson ND-Ramsey ND-Grand Forks ND-
842 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BENSON...NORTHWESTERN GRAND
FORKS...NELSON...NORTHERN GRIGGS...SOUTHERN RAMSEY AND EDDY COUNTIES
THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 842 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from near New Rockford to 6 miles northeast of McVille.
Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Devils Lake, New Rockford, Camp Grafton, Lakota, Lakewood Park,
McVille, and Michigan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4785 9930 4816 9913 4820 9829 4819 9759
      4767 9794 4767 9799 4758 9800 4760 9927
      4767 9927 4768 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 208DEG 53KT 4774 9905 4782 9807

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perroux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
933 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDZ008-014>016-024-026-027-054-230300-
Nelson ND-Pembina ND-Eddy ND-Benson ND-Eastern Walsh County ND-
Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-Grand Forks ND-
933 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BENSON...
NORTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...NELSON...CENTRAL RAMSEY...WALSH...NORTHERN
EDDY AND SOUTHEASTERN PEMBINA COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Forest River Colony to Spirit Lake Nation.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Larimore, Camp
Grafton, and Lakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4868 9715 4820 9922 4766 9923 4785 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 213DEG 34KT 4819 9769 4795 9896

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Perroux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MNZ004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-026-054-230330-
Kittson MN-West Marshall MN-Nelson ND-Pembina ND-Benson ND-
Eastern Walsh County ND-Towner ND-Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-
Cavalier ND-
1000 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN KITTSON...CENTRAL
BENSON...SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER...SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER...NORTHERN
NELSON...RAMSEY...WALSH AND SOUTHERN PEMBINA COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM
CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Spirit Lake Nation to near
Oakwood. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, Hallock, Drayton, Camp Grafton, and
Minto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4841 9928 4888 9687 4831 9704 4797 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 219DEG 34KT 4804 9907 4839 9722

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perroux