Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms overnight and again Wednesday evening will
  bring strong to severe storms to southeast North Dakota.

- Multiple rain chances with a 50% chance for a cumulative half
  inch through early next week for most areas across the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to slowly move east
across central North Dakota tonight. Storms will gradually
weaken as the night progresses, however, isolated severe storms
could bring impacts into portions of eastern North Dakota after
midnight. The primary hazard will be large hail.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Severe thunderstorm watch will be in effect for Barnes, Ransom,
and Sargent County through 1 AM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Currently a very elongated ridge exists across the southern
CONUS with zonal to WNW mid level flow in the northern CONUS. As
we progress through the week, ridging over the four corners
into Texas panhandle will amplify. At the same time PNW
troughing begins to turn flow more zonal over us as the ridge
gets pushed east. By Thursday SW flow looks to dominate the
western CONUS bringing pacific moisture over the Rockies with
embedded shortwaves. Certainly still differences remaining among
clusters but the potential for a wet late week/weekend
continues to increase. Current guidance is now favoring western
areas (eastern North Dakota) over eastern areas (northwest
Minnesota) with a 60% chance for over half an inch in the next
seven days vs only 40% chance out east. As much of this rain
looks to be more convective and thunderstorm driven vs a slow
soaking rain totals will likley vary greatly over short
distances.

- Severe threat today

This morning MUCAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg atop a nearly stationary
surface boundary led to the formation of a lone supercell that
tracked from north of Jamestown towards Fort Ransom dropping up
to baseball sized hail along the way. Overall this was mostly a
surprise and not in the forecast given the skinny CAPE, however
the very favorable straight hodos and eff shear of around 50kts
at least helped explain it a little. Looking ahead to this
evening CAMS largely maintain the instability across the area
but fail to convect despite an overall capable environment
should a forcing mechanism exist. The chance for a storm this
evening is likely less than 10% but if one goes, something
similar to this morning is certainly possible. By the overnight
there is higher confidence in storms forming west of Bismarck
and moving east reaching the James/Sheyenne river valleys around
4-5am. Storms still look to be elevated and a primary hail
threat, but cant 100% rule out damaging winds. This threat
would persist into the mid morning hours mainly for southeast
North Dakota and perhaps west central Minnesota is storms made
it that far east.

- Severe threat Wednesday

A more pronounced shortwave will roll across the Dakotas
Wednesday evening bringing forcing for widespread convection.
thunderstorms may occasionally have large hail and gusty winds
but overall this looks to be more of a general
thunderstorm/widespread rain event for eastern North Dakota.
Amounts will generally will be a quarter to half inch but
isolated totals in excess of 1" are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Still monitoring for the possibility of thunderstorm activity
during the early morning hours Wednesday, however, confidence in
coverage remains quite low at this time. The most likely timing
for potential storms would be 07Z through around 10Z, and would
primarily be in the vicinity of KFAR. Winds are expected to
remain light and variable overnight before increasing slightly
heading into Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
054-122000-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Western Walsh-
252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ003-027>032-040-NDZ038-039-049-052-053-122000-
Clay-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may
bring hail over 1 inch and damaging winds over 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
123 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

NDZ038-120715-
Barnes ND-
123 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BARNES COUNTY THROUGH
215 AM CDT...

At 122 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spiritwood moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valley City, Sanborn, Rogers, Eckelson, Urbana, and Bald Hill Dam.

This includes Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 272
and 296.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4708 9791 4676 9791 4676 9844 4698 9844
      4698 9847 4707 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 271DEG 24KT 4692 9856

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
216 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

MNZ003-NDZ038-039-120815-
Clay MN-Barnes ND-Cass ND-
216 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CLAY...CASS AND
EASTERN BARNES COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM CDT...

At 215 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oriska, or 12 miles east of Valley City, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fargo, Moorhead, West Fargo, Dilworth, Horace, Casselton, and
Mapleton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 50 and 82.
 Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 302 and 352.
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 1 and 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4666 9779 4712 9783 4711 9664 4665 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 269DEG 39KT 4693 9775

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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