River Flood Warning 8, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
906 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms in west-
  central Minnesota this afternoon. Main hazard will be hail to
  the size of quarters.

- Intervals of precipitation are forecast through the work week.
  This includes a 30% chance of advisory level winter impacts on
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Update to Key Messages were made.

Scattered light rain showers are encroaching upon eastern ND
from the west this morning. These showers will continue to push
east through the remainder of the morning into the early
afternoon, with additional, heavier rain showers forecast this
afternoon into evening.

Heaping clouds today will limit how warm temperatures get, now
forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s with the exception of
west-central MN where temperatures push into the 60s.

UPDATE
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Patchy fog is being reported across parts of northwest
Minnesota and the Red River Valley this morning, with low clouds
elsewhere. Expect a continuation of occasional and brief low
visibility this morning. Temperatures range from the low to mid
30s north of Highway 200, with 40s to the south.

UPDATE
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Continuing to keep the fog mention to patchy with no headlines
needed, as visibility has been mostly in the 1 to 2 miles at the
lowest. Next round of rain showers look to move in tomorrow
morning as a weak vort approaches. Still some instability
getting into our far southeastern counties tomorrow afternoon,
although the CAMs have been trending further south with the
convection they develop. HREF probabilities of around 10 percent
clip parts of Grant and Otter Tail counties, and at this point
the window for any severe in our area seems pretty narrow.

As for winter precip chances with the weekend system, the NBM
continues to trend lighter with snow amounts, with probabilities
of over 3 inches less than 20 percent. However, the chances for
ice have increased to around 20 to 30 percent and any of that
can cause impacts so will keep the possibility of advisory
messaging the same.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...Synopsis...

The upper flow pattern remains quite amplified with a very high
wave number across the CONUS. This afternoon, multiple short and
longwave troughs/vort maxes exist across the United States,
including one centered over the Northern Plains right now,
bringing showers and thunderstorms across the region. This looks
to continue through the week as brief breaks in cyclonic
vorticity advection will be quickly replaced by another region
of synoptic ascent, meaning we will get frequent shots at
precipitation. Mean temperatures/thicknesses remain fairly high,
so primarily rain can be expected through the week. This changes
towards the end of the week as a stronger wave comes through and
pushes temperatures back down to where snow arises as a
precipitation type once again. Ensemble signals do indicate the
potential for advisory level impacts from accumulating snow,
generally at around a 30% probability.

...SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

This afternoon, a surface low is currently centered around
Detroit Lakes and is currently slowly propagating east-
northeastward. A tongue of 56-60 degree dewpoints exists along
it and stretching southeastward. Moisture advection is fairly
limited this afternoon and drier air is looking to pinch off
this tongue of moisture over the next few hours. Having said
that, attached to the surface low is a warm front where some
weak veering aloft exists. As we progress through the remainder
of the afternoon, this warm front is expected to propagate
north to northeast as the low propagates with it. Along this
warm front, some CAMs attempt to initiate deep convection along
it thanks to very good lapse rates and flow aloft. Having said
that, the bulk of initiation locations are right on our CWA
border into DLH's area, which appears to be the most likely
scenario at this point as dry air looks like it may cut off the
main moisture source in our area. Still, the potential for
severe weather exists if initiation occurs prior to cutoff. With
the veering and stronger winds aloft, supercells are a hazard
with the potential for large damaging hail and tornadoes. The
threat will be over with generally around 7 PM tonight.

...SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW...

While the bulk of the severe weather threat is south of our
area, there is the potential once more for severe thunderstorms
in southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. A cold
front will move through this evening, largely scouring away the
majority of instability. The expectation for tomorrow is
recovery in southern Minnesota, intensifying a surface warm
front somewhere in that area. North of this warm front, elevated
instability should continue to linger through tomorrow, bringing
with it at least the potential for elevated supercells capable
of large hail. While the surface pattern mostly favors surface
based convection tomorrow afternoon well south, any variations
in the location of the warm front will drive where impacts will
be felt. As such, it is possible for areas like Grant County to
have an increasing tornado threat if and only if the warm front
is much further north than guidance currently shows. The most
likely outcome, however, is for primarily a damaging hail threat
from elevated storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail at KDVL this morning, with IFR to LIFR
ceilings and visibility at all other TAF sites. Low stratus and
BR will continue to impact aviation through at least 15Z as
IFR stratus remains persistent in the post frontal air mass.
Improvement could take shape later this afternoon; however, a
broken MVFR deck is likely to develop during the late afternoon,
with additional IFR ceilings and scattered showers likely by
late evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...CJ/Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
506 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
038-039-054-141015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Western Walsh-
506 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The
probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a signal for continued precipitation through the
week, including the potential for a return of winter weather.
There is a 30% chance of advisory level impacts late this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ029>032-040-NDZ049-052-053-141015-
Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Ransom-
Sargent-Richland-
506 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across
southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. The main
hazards will be wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch in
diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a signal for continued precipitation through the
week, including the potential for a return of winter weather.
There is a 30% chance of advisory level impacts late this
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.