Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Grand Forks, ND

954 
WWUS83 KFGF 161801
RFWFGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
101 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MNZ029-170200-
/O.EXA.KFGF.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260517T0200Z/
Wilkin-
101 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Wilkin.

* WINDS...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ030>032-040-170200-
/O.CON.KFGF.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260517T0200Z/
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
101 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, West Otter Tail, East Otter 
  Tail, Wadena and Grant.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

333 
WWUS83 KFGF 170141
RFWFGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
841 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MNZ029>032-040-170245-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260517T0200Z/
Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
841 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNNESOTA...

Critical fire weather conditions have ended as RH increased above
30 percent and winds have decreased. The warning will be allowed 
to expire. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
620 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast in
  southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota Saturday
  late morning into the afternoon.

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for a few elevated thunderstorms
  bringing a threat for one inch hail Sunday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Mostly clear skies prevail across most of west central and
northwest Minnesota this morning, with partly to mostly cloudy
skies in northeast North Dakota and parts of the southern Red
River Valley. Temperatures are in the 40s in most places, with a
few readings in the upper 30s along the International Border.

UPDATE
Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Gusty winds are lessening as anticipated with the loss of
daytime heating and mixing. This is allowing blowing dust / dirt
to settle with area webcams and surface observations showing
improving visibility.

Relative humidity values are starting to increase as well with
loss of daytime heating as well as cold front moving into the
region. This will end critical fire weather conditions early
this evening.

Updated the Key Messages to remove out of date messages relating
to impacts from earlier today, while also hoisting additional
Key Message noting on near critical fire weather conditions in
portions of southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota
late morning through early afternoon Saturday. While RH values
will dip into the 20s and perhaps upper teens, winds aloft
should decrease during the afternoon during peak heating/mixing.
Thus, near critical fire weather conditions will be derived
mainly from very dry air / low RH values.

UPDATE
Issued at 519 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for portions of
northeast ND into northwest MN through 9 PM this evening.
Satellite imagery, area webcams, and automated surface
observations strongly suggest visibility reductions from blowing
dust / dirt is below 1 mile, locally to quarter mile or even
near zero (particularly in far northern Red River Valley). This
will continue through the rest of the afternoon until around
sunset when winds are forecast to start waning.

A portion of the Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning within Devils Lake basin of northeast North Dakota. This
is due to observed wind gusts underneath high based rain showers
over 60 mph. Area webcams within these shower-induced severe
gusts show potential for localized near zero visibility from
blowing dust / dirt, further exacerbating potential impacts to
travel conditions in this region for the Friday afternoon
commute. This potential also continues through the afternoon
until around sunset.

Critical fire weather conditions also continue this afternoon
into early evening with RH values very low into the teens
coupled with gusty winds and dry fuels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low continues to rotate over central Manitoba, and will pull
eastward into Ontario tonight. The tight pressure gradient over
our northern CWA will continue into this afternoon, and model
soundings have some spots mixing all the way up to 650mb with
gusts close to 50 kts out of the question. So far the blowing dust
has been low impact, but will continue to monitor with the potential
for higher gusts remaining through the afternoon. As the low pulls
east tonight, the pressure gradient across our northern counties
will relax this evening. Some cold air advection late tonight into
tomorrow as a front drops down. The upper flow quickly shifts to the
southwest Saturday night, with a lead shortwave coming through on
Sunday. The southwesterly flow and another shortwave pushing up into
the region Monday, then the upper trough axis shifts to the east of
us by Tuesday. Low heights with the trough could bring
some fairly cool temps for Tuesday, and may have to
watch for near freezing readings Tuesday night. Northwesterly
flow aloft sets up for mid to late next week, but a couple of week
shortwaves moving through could bring some periodic light
precipitation chances along with temperatures warming back up to
near seasonal averages for Friday.

...Wind and blowing dust potential...

Highest winds so far have been along our northern tier, although a
few higher gusts above 40 mph have started popping up along the
Highway 2 corridor. So far the worst of the blowing dust signal on
satellite has been staying up in Canada, but will have to watch
closely as we get a bit more mixing this afternoon. HREF
probabilities of gusts over 50 mph are still around 40 percent in
parts of our northern tier. For now, the wind advisory continues to
seem on track and will watch for any blowing dust bringing
visibility down below 2 miles.

...Red Flag into the evening and other fire concerns...

With winds continuing to gust up to 45 or 50 mph in the north, and
even outside the wind advisory area some sustained speeds around
around 20 to 25 mph, which is plenty of wind when the RH is 20
percent or lower. Red flag conditions should continue through this
afternoon and into the early evening before the RHs start to recover
and winds slowly come down. Conditions will still be dry into
tomorrow and a few spots in our southern counties could get below 25
percent for RH, staying around 35 percent in the north. Winds will
fortunately be a lot less, with sustained speeds staying in the
teens and any gusts around 20 mph. Relief for fire weather concerns
should come Sunday as precipitation starts to move into the region.

...Widespread rain Sunday and Monday...

With southwesterly flow aloft and a shortwave trough coming out,
most of of the models bring in rain starting late Saturday night and
continuing into Sunday. Another shortwave coming out Monday will
bring additional rainfall, although the track is a bit further south
than the first wave. Highest rainfall amounts look to be in the
south where there is a 50 percent chance for over an inch of liquid
in those two days. However, even up near the Canadian border the
probabilities for at least a half an inch are pretty high, so
widespread wetting rain seems likely.

...Severe chances Sunday afternoon...

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for some severe storms to develop
Sunday afternoon for portions of southeastern ND and west central
MN. Much will depend on how the morning rainfall plays out, and if
we can get the warm front to push far enough north to get into our
southern counties. Still, quite a few of the ensemble members have
some elevated instability around 1500 J/kg, even though the average
surface based CAPE is only around 200 J/kg. Can't rule out some
elevated storms that could produce some quarter sized hail, so will
monitor how things evolve closely on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
Winds increase this morning out of the northwest with gusts to
near 20 knots expected from late morning through the early
afternoon. Winds shift to the east late in the TAF period, with
overall minimal impact potential to aviation.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-170900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
400 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast in southeast
North Dakota into west-central Minnesota late this morning into
the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a 2 out of 5 risk for a few elevated thunderstorms
bringing a threat for one inch hail Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
444 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MNZ003-017-022>024-027>032-040-161600-
Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Lake Itasca,
Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Two Inlets, Breckenridge,
Fergus Falls, New York Mills, Wadena, and Elbow Lake
444 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

Relative humidity values will drop to around 20-30 percent along
with northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph. Given the extremely dry
fuels, near critical fire weather conditions are expected starting
during the late morning hours and lasting through mid afternoon.
Any fire that does develop has the potential to quickly spread.

For more information on burning restrictions for Minnesota, see
www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/firerating_restrictions.html