Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
148 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - An unsettled weather pattern brings continued widespread
    showers and thunderstorms for most of the remainder of the
    week and into the weekend.

  - A Flood Watch remains in effect through late this evening and
    has been expanded to include all of west Georgia and most of
    north Georgia.

  - A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible each
    afternoon and evening, primarily producing localized damaging
    wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The forecast through Wednesday remains largely persistence within a
quasi-tropical environment: waves of showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and evening, followed by cloudy, humid, and
misty nights and mornings.

Deep Gulf moisture continues to be funneled around the western edge
of vertically collocated ridging, and all forecast soundings within
the past 48 hours have shown PWATs of 1.75" or higher -- close to,
if not exceeding, daily maximums climatologically. This combined
with nearly-saturated profiles with tall, skinny CAPE will ensure
that any storms that form will continue to be very efficient
rainfall producers. Some locations have picked up 5-6" (or more) of
rainfall in the past couple of days, with minimal recovery time in
between deluges. As such, a Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk for
Excessive Rainfall has been analyzed across portions of the
forecast area today, and localized flash flooding concerns will
continue. Training storms, or storms that anchor to any lingering
outflows/boundaries, could drop a quick 2-3" of rainfall (and
potentially more, depending on observed rain rates). The Flood
Watch has been expanded in area to encompass the northern two-
thirds of the forecast area to highlight increased chances for
localized flash flooding and flooding of creeks and streams
through late tonight.

A cursory glance at satellite and surface observations today does
not suggest the presence of any obvious MCVs, as has been the case
in previous days, but weak organization of storms into clusters is
possible along any remnant outflows or more indistinct surface
boundaries. The strongest upward pulses will continue to have precip-
loaded downdrafts capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts,
but the summerlike environment with relatively unimpressive
kinematics will preclude severe concerns from becoming widespread or
numerous. Any clustering of storms will locally bolster chances for
damaging winds.

Model guidance hints at the center of our persistent ridging moving
closer to the Georgia/Carolina coast over the next 24 hours (with
surface winds kick more solidly SW around the western edge of the
ridge), and weak increases in subsidence may result in slightly
lower convective coverage on Wednesday afternoon. However, all
other variables considered, tomorrow should be yet another near-
carbon copy of today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The long term outlook continues with little change through at least
the beginning of next week. Upper level analysis shows a significant
omega block pattern over the central CONUS. These are notoriously
tricky for models to time the progression, and it shows in the
clustering analysis of for days 5 onward. Some models show a more
progressive block, while this could be a sign that the pattern may
change, models have been consistent in showing movement of the block
since late last week ("I promise, this time is for reeeaalll" - wx
models). That said, even should the block move out, the upper level
ridge is so far north that much of the driving force for afternoon
thunderstorms have come from disturbances in the subtropical flow
undercutting the block. The main control the block may have as it
moves eastward is to move the stationary boundary to the north down
across north GA. This could turn some of the moisture flow off
across the northern counties and is represented in the north to
south gradient in PoPs for the weekend. Either way, expect continued
peak PoPs in the afternoon >50% across most of the area. Afternoon
thunderstorms will remain possible, though daytime heating will
continue to be moderated by cloud suppressed diurnal heating.
Stalling or training of any thunderstorms will result in flash
flooding, especially as soils have moistened significantly over the
last 3-5 days. Rainfall rates of 2-3"+ will remain possible, and
locally heavy rainfall may lead to significant precipitation
accumulation gradients over short distances. The 10th, 50th, 90th
QPF percentiles through Saturday afternoon sit generally at ~1.5",
~2.5", ~4.5" respectively across the entire area.

Temperatures will continue to be at the mercy of morning cloud
coverage, so days 4 & 5 may see high temps trend downward over the
coming days. Expect highs to, in general, remain in the 80s with
lows in the 60s. Should the frontal boundary make its way this far
south, temps north of the front may see highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Generally SCT-BKN MVFR to low-VFR conds expected thru the aftn.
Waves of pcpn will once again develop thru the evening, with the
best window for direct terminal impacts in TSRA from 18-23Z.
2-4SM vsbys psbl in heavy pcpn. Passing -SHRA may linger thru
01Z. Deterioration back to BKN/OVC IFR likely by 05-06Z, with
TWRINC psbl from 08-15Z. Winds will generally remain out of the
SW/SSW at 5-8kts, ocnl nearly due S this aftn. Another round of
TSRA exp tmrw aftn, covg may be lower than in previous aftns.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  83  66  86 /  50  50  10  30
Atlanta         67  82  68  84 /  40  50  20  40
Blairsville     62  78  62  80 /  60  60  30  30
Cartersville    66  83  66  84 /  40  60  30  50
Columbus        67  85  67  88 /  40  50  10  60
Gainesville     66  81  67  83 /  50  50  20  30
Macon           66  85  66  87 /  30  40  10  40
Rome            66  83  66  84 /  50  60  30  60
Peachtree City  66  83  66  86 /  40  60  10  50
Vidalia         69  88  69  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>038-041>050-052>060-066>072-078>082-089>094-
102>104.

&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
149 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
149 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Flood Watch remains in effect through late this evening for
for west central Georgia and much of north Georgia, as locally
heavy rainfall will lead to increased chances for flash flooding.
A few storms could also become strong to severe, capable of
producing isolated damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
through Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours. A few storms could become strong to severe and capable of
producing isolated damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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