Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - An unsettled weather pattern will bring widespread showers and
    thunderstorms through the holiday weekend and into next week.

  - Locally heavy rainfall can be expected each day, supporting isolated
    flash flooding potential.

  - A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible, capable
    of producing localized damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

The Southeast remains situated within a regime of deep southwesterly
flow at the mid-levels, supporting persistent overrunning of Gulf
moisture atop surface high pressure. We're in for a rather messy
holiday weekend as a result, with chances for diurnally-enhanced
showers and thunderstorms each day -- highest coverage in the
afternoon, with a lull (but chances still non-zero) overnight. Our
lingering CAD wedge will continue to slowly erode into the
afternoon, resulting in increased cloud cover and higher chances for
showers versus thunderstorms across portions of northeast Georgia.

Dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid-70s are rather anomalous for this
time of year (observed Td of 69F on this morning's 12Z sounding is
right at our daily maximum climatologically), and with tall, skinny
CAPE profiles observed on ACARS soundings, any storms that form will
be efficient rainfall producers. A Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk
for Excessive Rainfall has been analyzed across a majority of the
forecast area both today and Sunday, and localized/nuisance flash
flooding concerns will continue. The strongest upward pulses will
likely have precip-loaded downdrafts capable of producing
isolated damaging wind gusts, but the summerlike environment with
relatively unimpressive kinematics should preclude severe concerns
from becoming widespread or numerous. Be extra cautious if
outdoor activities are planned through this weekend, and ensure
proper precautions are being taken if warnings are issued.

HiRes guidance suggests some quasi-organization of thunderstorms on
Sunday afternoon is possible (likely due to the combination of
residual outflows from today's activity and passing disturbances at
the mid-levels), but the pattern remains largely unchanged.

Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to 80s for most,
with the exception being our typical wedge areas (north and east of
the Atlanta Metro), which may struggle to breach the lower 70s
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Minimal changes made to the forecast for the extended range. See
previous discussion below.

Yet again, the summer-like patter continues through the full long
term outlook. Near perpetual SW to E flow will continue to transport
moisture into the area. If anything conditions become more conducive
to afternoon thunderstorms as we enter mid next week as the upper
level flow pattern sees an expressive undulation into a blocking
pattern. The upstream trough of the block will be centered (and
likely stalled) over the south-central CONUS, a decidedly odd place
for this. Resultant surface pressure over The Gulf will be in around
the 10th percentile climatologically. This broad low pressure will
be conducive to thunderstorm development in the moist environment.
Temperatures continue in the 80s to near 90s with moderation from
thunderstorms each day. The main concern through the long term will
be the potential for diurnally driven strong to severe storms. No
widespread threat is expected at this time, however enhancement may
be derived from stronger surface level E flow which could build a
weak wedge. The most likely time for wedge development will be as
the downstream trough of the blocking pattern descends the east coast
next week. The exact timing and strength of any wedge that may
develop is uncertain, so just something to watch for in the future.

Total QPF will be substantial and welcomed through the period. Mean
total precip sits over 5 inches of some areas of northeast GA. This
however has a caveat. Due to the spotty coverage of convection, some
area are likely to see significantly more/less than this through the
period. With high rainfall rates, attention will be needed on the
flash flood threat, especially as soils begin to saturate.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Chcs for passing SHRA and TSRA will continue thru much of the TAF
pd. Best window for direct terminal impacts in TSRA from 18-01Z,
likely accompanied by BKN to OVC MVFR cigs and reduced vsbys.
Cannot rule out iso -SHRA overnight, but coverage will be
patchy/conf is low. Initial improvements to SCT MVFR to low VFR
will deteriorate back to BKN to OVC IFR by 03-04Z (and likely LIFR
for several hours around daybreak). MVFR vsbys in BR exp. Winds
will remain generally out of the SSE/SE, but may briefly swing SSW
as wedge erodes this aftn. Speeds will remain 7kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-medium confidence timing and coverage of SHRA/TSRA.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  81  64  83 /  50  50  70  90
Atlanta         65  82  66  83 /  40  80  70  90
Blairsville     60  77  60  78 /  40  80  60  90
Cartersville    64  83  64  84 /  50  80  70  90
Columbus        66  86  66  87 /  30  60  60  90
Gainesville     64  79  65  81 /  50  70  70  90
Macon           65  85  65  86 /  30  60  50  90
Rome            63  82  63  83 /  60  70  60  90
Peachtree City  64  83  65  84 /  40  70  60  90
Vidalia         68  87  68  88 /  50  60  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
243 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through tonight. A few storms could become strong to severe,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. The primary
risk will be strong to locally damaging wind gusts and frequent
lightning. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall can be expected,
which could lead to isolated flash flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday through
Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, which
will bring the risk for locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. A few storms could become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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