Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some thunderstorms may become strong to severe Tuesday morning
  and overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with the primary hazards of
  concern being damaging wind gusts, hail, and an isolated spin-
  up tornado.

- Despite several rounds of showers and thunderstorms forecast
  over the next several days, little to no meaningful improvement
  to ongoing drought is anticipated.

- Fairly seasonal temperatures (70s & 80s) are expected through at
  least the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Our brief period of tranquil weather (supported by low amplitude
ridging aloft and wedging at the surface) will come to an end
through late week as mid-level flow trends zonal. A series of
disturbances traversing otherwise benign flow will support multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

This morning: a decaying MCS will drop out of Tennessee and breach
northwest Georgia several hours before daybreak. The thermodynamic
parameter space becomes increasingly unfavorable -- and largely
decoupled from the surface -- the further to the south and east you
advance across our CWA. HRRR/ARW guidance paints a stripe of most
unstable CAPE on the order of 500-750 J/kg across north and north
central Georgia, but a glance at simulated sounding profiles shows
all of the aforementioned instability situated above the surface
inversion. A Marginal Risk is in place across the extreme northwest
sliver of the forecast area to account for the chance for an
isolated damaging wind gust to mix down to the surface (hodographs
are nonetheless strongly curved: with 40-45kts of shear at 850 mb,
and 0-1 SRH as high as 200-300 m2/s2), but chances for severe
weather are generally low. Breezy to gusty conditions are still
expected as it works its way southeast through sunrise, with
primarily showers expected south of a line extending from the Metro
to Athens.

This afternoon: The morning push of showers and thunderstorms is
progged to fizzle out around Columbus and Macon early this
afternoon. Convective cloud debris and other cloud cover, along with
patchy showers and a thunderstorm or two, will persist well into the
afternoon, which will hamper chances for further destabilization and
meaningful redevelopment. Expect highs to top out in the upper 70s
to mid 80s for all but far northeast Georgia, which will remain in
the mid-60s to lower 70s.

Late the evening/early Wednesday morning: Yet another organized line
of convection -- well ahead of an advancing cold front -- is progged
to move to the E out of the ArkLaTex late this afternoon, with
remnants moving into portions of west Georgia close to midnight
tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
state line for a couple of hours before the arrival of the main
line, mostly for the western half of the state. Similar to this
morning (owing to the timing of the line falling during the diurnal
lull in instability), this complex is progged to decrease in
intensity as it continues to move east. Shear profiles are weaker
and mostly straight, so isolated damaging wind gusts (and perhaps
hail) remains the primary concern as the line falls apart. A Slight
Risk is in effect for portions of northwest and west central Georgia
to capture the potential, with a Marginal Risk covering portions of
the area from Columbus to the Metro to our northern border with
TN/NC.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue off and on through
the majority of the day Wednesday, with coverage increasingly patchy
in nature. Overall, minimal airmass changes are expected between
Tuesday and Wednesday, and highs will similarly rise into the upper
70s to 80s, with the lower 90s in reach for our far southeastern
tier.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Cooler with Periods of Rain Through the Weekend:

The last few days of April into the start of May will look quite
a bit different than most of the past month, with cooler than
normal temperatures and periods of rain as troughing sets up over
the Eastern US. Starting off with Wednesday night, scattered
showers will be along a stalled frontal boundary draped across
part of the area, which will get pushed off to the south during
the day on Thursday as high pressure slides in to the north. This
will usher in cool and dry airmass over the area from late
Thursday into Friday. By late Friday, most of the ensemble
guidance is showing a system developing across the southern
Plains and tracking towards the Southeast into Saturday. There is
still low confidence in the exact track of this system, but in
general, moisture surging northward out of the Gulf out ahead of
it should support moderate to high rain chances across much of
our area late Friday night through Saturday. No widespread severe
weather is anticipated at this time given the cooler airmass, but
there is still time for things to change. Behind the system, a
dry and relatively cool airmass will likely push in for Sunday
into early next week. High temperatures will be a bit of a roller
coaster during this long term period, starting with mid 70s to
low 80s on Thursday, dropping to the mid 60s to low 70s by
Saturday, then rising back into the upper 70s to low 80s by
Monday. Overnight lows will likely be in the 50s each day, with
some low to mid 40s possible for Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Tricky TAF pd with multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA expected. Conds
initially VFR will deteriorate to BKN low-VFR to MVFR by 10-11Z
with arrival of first wave of pcpn. Chcs for AM -TSRA will peak
between 11 and 14Z for northern TAF sites, and -SHRA is possible
off an on beginning 10Z well into early aftn (18-19Z). Cannot
rule out a brief pd of IFR between 14 and 18Z, but confidence is
too low for TAF mention. A return to 3-5kft cigs is expected for a
couple of hours this aftn. -SHRA, and BKN to OVC MVFR cigs, will
return late pd, with yet another chc for- TSRA from 05/06Z-11Z.
Any pcpn may be accompanied by MVFR vsbys in BR. Winds initially
SE at 4-8kts will swing to the SW by 18-19Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  61  81  58 /  50  90  70  30
Atlanta         79  64  81  59 /  50  90  60  30
Blairsville     70  57  74  49 /  60  90  90  20
Cartersville    80  61  81  54 /  60  90  80  30
Columbus        84  65  87  62 /  40  70  40  50
Gainesville     75  63  79  57 /  50  90  80  20
Macon           83  64  87  62 /  20  70  40  50
Rome            80  62  82  54 /  60  80  80  30
Peachtree City  81  62  81  57 /  50  90  60  40
Vidalia         86  64  90  65 /  10  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...96

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