Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
214 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and strong to severe storms may develop this
  afternoon through early evening. The main threats with any
  storms will be gusty winds and hail.

- Warmer temperatures the next few days with highs in the upper
  80s to low 90s.

- Increased rain chances return from Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong to Severe Storms Through the Evening:

A potentially active afternoon and evening is on tap across north
and central Georgia as a warm, humid, and unstable airmass
develops over the region. As of this writing, cumulus fields have
already started to build along boundaries of low-level
convergence and temperature gradients. These will initially be
fair weather clouds as the atmosphere remains capped, but that
will change in the next hour or two as heating/mixing peaks. Based
on the latest soundings and observations, CAPE values will peak
at over 2000 J/kg across portions of the area, with DCAPE values
of around or above 1000 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates near 7
degC/km. Wind shear is very weak to non-existent, so storms will
be pulse-y and rather short-lived, but given the strong
instability some storms may become severe and capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, up to quarter size hail, and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible,
especially with how slow storms may be moving (south to north at
around 10 mph). With no strong source of forcing, coverage of
storms will be scattered at most, with the highest chances being
along the sea-breeze in east-central GA. Still, storms could be a
threat for any portion of our area given the natural diurnal
boundaries as well as outflow boundaries from collapsing
showers/storms. After sunset convection will gradually taper off
with the loss of daytime heating. Before that, high temperatures
will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the area.

Warm and Dry on Monday:

Tonight into Monday, a drier airmass will spread into the region
from over the Atlantic, plummeting PWAT values to under 1" during
the day (we're at around 1.5" today). This will prevent any threat
for showers or storms, except for in far NW Georgia where enough
moisture may linger to support isolated afternoon convection.
Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will climb from the 60s in
the morning, to the upper 80s to low 90s again during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Initial ridging at the surface and aloft on Tuesday keeps things
dry and warm, but the forecast will be trending toward a more
unsettled pattern with more opportunities for rainfall thereafter.
By Wednesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will push
southeastward toward far north Georgia. The highest PoPs will be
relegated to these areas in proximity to the frontal forcing with
drier conditions initially favored farther southeast.

The front makes only limited southward progress by Thursday into
north Georgia as upper support departs northeastward from the
Great Lakes into Quebec. As such, diurnally-enhanced PoPs should
again be highest along/north of the I-20 corridor. Flow aloft then
transitions into southwest flow by late week as the front becomes
stationary. Weak shortwaves within this flow will enhance
convective coverage headed into the weekend, particularly with the
aid of diurnal heating. Coverage again will likely be highest
across roughly the northern half of the area through this period.
The organized severe threat continues to look low given the
summer-like weakly sheared environment, a couple of strong to
isolated severe storms certainly can't be ruled out. While locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible, the lack of a widespread
and persistent soaking rainfall will limit the overall impact on
the drought through the forecast period.

Temperatures remain generally several degrees above normal (highs
in the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s on the warmest days and lows
in the 60s), though marginally cooler highs are possible late
week given increased clouds and convective coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

CU fields at 4-6kft starting to develop early this afternoon,
with chances for SHRA/TSRA at all sites through the evening
hours. Outside of impacts from potential SHRA/TSRA, VFR
conditions will continue through tonight. There's potential for
areas of low CIGs to develop around 09-14Z Monday, but confidence
in that is medium at best, and will likely depend on rainfall
from this afternoon. Winds S to SE at 6-10kts through the evening,
becoming light overnight and returning to 6-10 kts on Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium in TSRA timing and chances. Medium in Monday AM CIGs.
High on all others.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  89  63  89 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         67  87  66  87 /  20  10   0   0
Blairsville     61  82  60  83 /  20  10   0   0
Cartersville    65  88  65  89 /  20  20   0   0
Columbus        66  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
Gainesville     65  87  64  86 /  20  10   0   0
Macon           65  90  63  90 /  30   0   0   0
Rome            63  88  64  88 /  20  20  10   0
Peachtree City  64  88  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
Vidalia         66  91  64  91 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1158 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1158 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Some storms could become strong to severe, capable of producing
damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, and
will bring the risk for lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ110-172045-
Telfair GA-
416 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Telfair County through 445 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Horse Creek Wma, or 11
miles north of Broxton. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville and Horse Creek Wma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3182 8305 3193 8297 3194 8281 3185 8278
      3185 8279 3184 8278 3181 8282 3182 8284
      3178 8286 3178 8289 3179 8290 3178 8292
      3178 8296 3179 8298 3178 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 151DEG 4KT 3178 8288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
418 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ112-113-172045-
Toombs GA-Montgomery GA-
418 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Toombs
and southern Montgomery Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over McNatt Falls, or 8
miles northwest of Plant Hatch. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Uvalda, Alston, South Thompson, English Eddy, Grays Landing, Rock
Springs, Cedar Crossing, Charlotteville, and McNatt Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8237 3196 8238 3195 8239 3196 8241
      3195 8240 3197 8244 3196 8246 3197 8248
      3196 8249 3195 8248 3207 8261 3213 8249
      3211 8236 3194 8233 3194 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 152DEG 4KT 3200 8246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
423 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ072-073-172100-
Baldwin GA-Jones GA-
423 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Baldwin
and northeastern Jones Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 423 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Greenberry Crossroads,
or 8 miles east of Gray, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gray, Haddock, James, Greenberry Crossroads, and Browns Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 8330 3292 8338 3298 8356 3308 8355
      3312 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 129DEG 5KT 3298 8340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
426 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ072-172100-
Jones GA-
426 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Jones
County through 500 PM EDT...

At 425 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Wayside, or near Gray,
moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wayside, Round Oak, and Jarrell Plantation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8359 3295 8369 3309 8375 3313 8365
      3311 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 171DEG 5KT 3301 8365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
427 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ033-044-045-055-057-172100-
North Fulton GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-South Fulton GA-
427 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern DeKalb,
northwestern Henry, Clayton and south central Fulton Counties through
500 PM EDT...

At 427 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Hartsfield-Jackson Airport to near Lovejoy, and moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Jonesboro, East Point, Stockbridge, Forest Park, Riverdale,
College Park, Morrow, Lovejoy, Hapeville, Lake City,
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta, Candler-Mcafee,
Lake Spivey, Rex, Sweet Auburn, Hidden Valley Park, Lakewood Park,
and Flippen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 8438 3367 8423 3351 8413 3342 8430
      3362 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 210DEG 7KT 3363 8442 3345 8428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ098-111-112-172115-
Wheeler GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
443 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Treutlen, northeastern Wheeler and Montgomery Counties through 515 PM
EDT...

At 443 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Ailey, or over Mount
Vernon, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Glenwood, Ailey, Higgston, Tarrytown, Landsburg,
Barnhill, and Kibbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8260 3224 8277 3234 8266 3234 8250
      3214 8245 3213 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 152DEG 21KT 3215 8256

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH