Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
    central and eastern Georgia. A few may become briefly severe
    with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph the primary threat.

  - The threat for storms will continue on Tuesday with the main
    threats being gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and
    frequent lightning across north Georgia and the metro.

  - Heat index values in excess of 100 are in place today with
    values exceeding 105 on Tuesday. A Heat Advisory has been
    issued for nearly all of north and central Georgia for Tuesday
    afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Remnant outflow boundary/MCV continues to push south across the CWA
this afternoon after the morning convection. Airmass in parts of
central Georgia remains quite ripe for some afternoon convection
with analyzed SBCAPE of 3000-4000+ J/kg. Dewpoints are hovering in
the upper 70s to near 80 in some of these areas with plenty of
moisture through the column bringing PWATs to near or above 2". Main
thing missing is the shear, otherwise our parameter space would be a
bit more concerning. Still, afternoon storms are starting to fire
across parts of eastern Georgia and isolated convection should
spread into central Georgia if cloud cover clears enough to bring us
to convective T. A few of these storms could be briefly severe
thanks to precip loading of downdrafts and 1000+ J/kg of analyzed
DCAPE. Primary threat would be wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Tomorrow sees the upper level ridge slide ever so slightly to the
east which is very unfortunate for our temperature and humidity
forecast. Heat builds into the area with mostly clear skies. Highs
will be in the 90s. Dewpoints will be in the 70s. Misery will be
experienced by all. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of
north and central Georgia from noon through 8 pm Tuesday. Please
take caution if working, exercising, or playing outdoors. Take
frequent breaks and drink plenty of liquids.

Jet streak embedded within the NW flow of the upper level
ridge/trough is expected to kick off some convection north of the
area tomorrow afternoon/evening. CAMs are pretty uniform in seeing
an MCS form and push south, potentially clipping portions of NE GA
by the late evening to early overnight. Where things diverge is in
how well said MCS holds together. Various CAMs dissolve it before it
arrives into the CWA - others keep it into NE GA before quickly
falling apart, and others still keep it together into parts of the
metro. The REFS shows 40%-50% probability of 40 dbz returns across
north Georgia Tuesday night, and (as usual) the RRFS is one of the
more aggressive models in showing convection pushing into north
Georgia and the metro. REFS mean SBCAPE values hover near 3000 J/kg,
so plenty of instability will be in place. Shear will once again be
the limiting factor (0-6 km mean around 20 kts). The main takeaway
is that uncertainty is high around just how far south these storms
get, but where they do hold together, expect to have a chance of
some severe weather. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

By Wed morning a cold front will be As the long term period begins,
a colds front will move south into North GA and push rapidly
through the area. Expecting a line of showers and thunderstorms to
develop with this front and move south through the day Wednesday.
A few of these storms may be strong and capable of producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning strikes, and periods of heavy rain. We are
currently under a Marginal risk across portions of central GA so will
Definitely keep an eye on how things develop as we get closer to
Wed. With the front moving through the area during the day we will
also have the diurnally driven instability to deal with and things
trailing off after sunset. The models show this front moving south
of the area by 00z Thu with a much drier airmass moving in behind
it. Drier air associated with a high pressure ridge builds southeast
out of the western great lake states clearing things out for North
and Central GA Thu/Fri. Temps are not expected to cool to much with
high temps still expected in the upper 80s to middle 90s but the
Apparent T (feels like temps) will be  much lower.

By Sat the next frontal boundary moving east out of the lower to mid
MS river valley moves into W GA just before daybreak. The main low
pressure center moves east into western KY at the same time. With
the close proximity of the low center to NW GA this frontal boundary
should stay fairly organized as it moves through the region. The
front exits the state Sun morning as the main low center moves NE
into the Central/Eastern Great Lake states. Right now this is Days 6
and 7 so things may change as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR to start TAF period. Thunderstorm threat has come to an end
for most TAF sites with small chance remaining for CSG/MCN. Cu
field expected to develop through afternoon and dissipate after
sunset. Winds should return from NW at 6-11 kts before going
lighter overnight. Cu field returns again Tuesday afternoon and
winds pick up from NW once again after sunrise.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  96  75  92 /   0  20  20   0
Atlanta         75  96  77  91 /   0  10  10  10
Blairsville     67  88  68  83 /   0  40  20   0
Cartersville    73  95  74  90 /   0  10  20  10
Columbus        75  98  79  95 /   0  10  10  40
Gainesville     73  95  74  90 /   0  20  10   0
Macon           74  97  78  95 /  10   0  10  20
Rome            73  95  74  90 /   0  10  30  10
Peachtree City  73  96  76  91 /   0  10  10  10
Vidalia         75  99  79  98 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ001>005-
011>014-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
209 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281815-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
209 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across
portions of eastern and central Georgia. A few of these could
become severe with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. A
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A Heat Advisory has been issued for most all of north and central
Georgia for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Heat indices will rise
above 105 degrees in many locations. If outdoors, drink plenty of
water and take frequent breaks.

A line of thunderstorms may impact portions of northern Georgia
and the Atlanta metro tomorrow night. Uncertainty remains high on
how far south into the state storms may traverse, but any storms
that hold together will be capable of damaging wind gusts and
frequent lightning. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in effect for
far northeast Georgia and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in
effect generally along and north of I-20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

GAZ033-044>046-048-054-055-057-272315-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-
Newton GA-Henry GA-South Fulton GA-
646 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockdale, southern
DeKalb, northern Fayette, central Henry, Clayton, south central
Fulton and central Newton Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Milstead to Panola Mountain State Park to
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, and moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, McDonough, Fayetteville, Conyers, Covington, Jonesboro, City
of South Fulton, Peachtree City, East Point, Stockbridge, Union City,
Forest Park, Riverdale, College Park, Tyrone, Morrow, Lovejoy,
Hapeville, Lake City, and Oxford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 8450 3370 8419 3374 8390 3372 8387
      3348 8379 3343 8418 3342 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 359DEG 9KT 3368 8397 3365 8419 3364 8442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

GAZ111>113-272315-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Montgomery GA-
651 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Toombs,
southeastern Wheeler and southern Montgomery Counties through 715 PM
EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Jordan, or 9 miles
south of Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Uvalda, Alston, Jordan, Charlotteville, McNatt Falls, and Grays
Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8267 3206 8273 3215 8255 3196 8235
      3195 8238 3196 8238 3196 8240 3195 8240
      3197 8243 3197 8248 3196 8250 3195 8248
      3195 8249 3196 8251 3196 8257 3193 8259
      3194 8260 3192 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 328DEG 10KT 3205 8260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

GAZ047>049-059-272330-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
702 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Morgan,
southern Walton, north central Jasper and east central Newton
Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Brick Store, or 8 miles
east of Covington. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Social Circle, Rutledge, Newborn, Mansfield, and Brick Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8374 3366 8362 3350 8357 3346 8368
      3350 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 004DEG 3KT 3360 8369

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
707 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

GAZ110-272345-
Telfair GA-
707 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Telfair
County through 745 PM EDT...

At 707 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Workmore, or 10 miles
south of McRae, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Horse Creek Wma and Workmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 8294 3193 8298 3198 8288 3187 8275
      3186 8276 3186 8278 3185 8279 3184 8278
      3181 8282 3182 8284 3178 8286 3178 8289
      3179 8290 3178 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 330DEG 8KT 3191 8291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
716 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

GAZ085-086-097-272345-
Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
716 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Laurens, west central Emanuel and southeastern Johnson Counties
through 745 PM EDT...

At 716 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Scott, or 7 miles
southeast of Wrightsville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Adrian, Lovett, Meeks, and Scott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 8247 3251 8263 3251 8265 3250 8265
      3250 8264 3246 8271 3264 8278 3271 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 326DEG 7KT 3263 8267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
717 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

GAZ111>113-272345-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Montgomery GA-
717 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Toombs,
southeastern Wheeler and southwestern Montgomery Counties through 745
PM EDT...

At 717 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Jordan, or 8 miles
south of Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Uvalda, Jordan, Charlotteville, McNatt Falls, and Grays Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 8266 3208 8272 3216 8260 3197 8241
      3196 8246 3197 8248 3196 8250 3195 8248
      3195 8249 3196 8251 3196 8257 3193 8259
      3194 8260 3193 8261 3192 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 326DEG 7KT 3206 8262

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH