Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A hot and muggy airmass remains in place into next week, with
    triple digit heat index values remaining likely for many
    areas.

  - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue each day. Some may
    be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts, frequent
    lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A tropical airmass will remain in place across the Southeast through
the short term period and into the next week, which will keep
dewpoints in the mid 70s and precipitable water values between 2 and
2.2 inches. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid 90s
in areas south of I-85 and upper 80s to low 90s to the north. Within
this airmass, heat indices will climb to above 100 across all but
the far northern tier. Furthermore, heat index values will be
between 105-109 degrees in portions of east-central Georgia, where a
Heat Advisory will be in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

As SBCAPE values increase to 2000-3000 J/kg, scattered thunderstorms
have developed across far northern and western portions of the
forecast area. These storms will spread south/southeast along
outflows through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening. Given the deep atmospheric moisture, stronger storms that
develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. This could lead
to localized instances of flash flooding in urban and low-lying
areas given slow storm motion. Stronger storms will also be able to
produce strong, briefly damaging wind gusts. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will become more focused across central Georgia this
evening and linger until around midnight.

A longwave trough extends through the eastern Great Lakes and
through the Midwest. As this trough continues towards the Eastern
Seaboard, an associated surface low will deepen and advance
northeast towards Nova Scotia, with a trailing cold front being
nudged further south into Tennessee/North Carolina by early Sunday.
While the front is not expected to enter Georgia, convective
clusters initiated along the boundary are anticipated to drift
southward into the forecast area on Sunday. This, in addition to
continued deep moisture and diurnal enhancement, will promote more
numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Similar to
today, a few stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Since the cold front will
not reach Georgia, the only relief we will see from the heat will
come from increased storm coverage. Heat indices are forecast to
peak over 100 across the majority of the area, and another Heat
Advisory may be needed across east-central Georgia where they
will be hottest.

Another feature that will warrant continued monitoring will be a mid-
level low that continues to spin over the northeastern Gulf. It
remains possible that this disturbance could become more organized
and gain tropical characteristics, with a 30% chance for development
over the next 2 days and a 40% chance of development over the next 7
days per NHC. No direct impacts from this system are expected during
the short term period. Contrary to some previous forecasts, latest
guidance appears to indicate that this system will not be lifted to
the northeast by the aforementioned trough on Sunday and early next
week. This would leave the disturbance to drift slowly northwest
early next week and leave the same hot, humid airmass in place over
the region going into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

High temperatures concerns will be the main issue in the first half
of the term forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected
every day with apparent temperatures exceeding triple digits. By
Wednesday, a heat advisory may be needed for portions of the central
and eastern parts of the CWA as HI values exceed 105. Little in the
way of relief is expected during the overnight hours as temps only
fall into the low to mid 70s.

A dry cold front Wednesday into Thursday will give us a quick break
from heat and humidity as we close out the work week; though highs
will still be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That lower humidity
will help break the choke hold of triple digit heat index values as
we roll into next weekend.

There isn't a good signal for likely afternoon thunderstorms, but a
scattered storms will remain possible during the afternoon through
the week. Coverage highest on Wednesday afternoon, but pops are
still limited to slight chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Diurnal showers and storms along the I-20 corridor are departing
the metro with only a limited window over the next hour or so for
impacts, mainly at KPDK. Isolated storms are in the vicinity of
KMCN and KAHN with some impacts possible there as well. A fairly
quiet overnight is expected once convection dissipates. Another
round of afternoon/evening TSRA/SHRA is once again expected
tomorrow with associated impacts. Winds will be light and variable
overnight and light again tomorrow out of the west/southwest.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence in afternoon storms on Sunday is medium.
Confidence is high for all other elements.

Winesett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  93  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
Atlanta         74  92  74  91 /  10  50  30  30
Blairsville     67  85  67  84 /  10  50  20  70
Cartersville    73  92  73  92 /  10  40  30  40
Columbus        75  93  74  93 /  40  60  20  30
Gainesville     73  92  73  90 /  10  40  30  50
Macon           73  92  73  92 /  40  30  10  30
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  10  50  30  50
Peachtree City  72  92  72  91 /  20  50  30  30
Vidalia         75  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  40

&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Winesett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
853 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
853 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms clear through the late
evening. A few storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected through much of the
week ahead. Any storms that form will be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat concerns will linger through next week as maximum heat index
values are expected to rise into the triple digits for many areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
838 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ093-105-190115-
Macon GA-Dooly GA-
838 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Macon
and northwestern Dooly Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 838 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Dooling, or 8 miles
east of Oglethorpe, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Montezuma, Marshallville, Byromville, Dooling, and Winchester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3219 8407 3236 8402 3245 8394 3245 8385
      3244 8385 3244 8384 3243 8383 3240 8384
      3238 8384 3238 8386 3236 8386 3236 8385
      3230 8385 3216 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 183DEG 7KT 3226 8392

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Culver

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
850 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ027-036-038-190115-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
850 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Clarke,
northwestern Oglethorpe and southwestern Madison Counties through 915
PM EDT...

At 850 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Hull, or near Athens,
moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Winterville, Colbert, Hull, Athens-Clarke County, Diamond Hill,
Smithonia, and Neese.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 8318 3399 8314 3395 8329 3403 8338
      3403 8337 3404 8337 3404 8336 3411 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 242DEG 5KT 3402 8330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Culver

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
905 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ068-070-190130-
Lamar GA-Pike GA-
905 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pike
and Lamar Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 905 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Milner, or near
Barnesville, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Barnesville, Milner, Aldora, Johnstonville, Liberty Hill, and
Goggins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 8424 3314 8408 3305 8404 3302 8404
      3300 8417 3308 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 352DEG 5KT 3311 8416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
916 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ027-038-190145-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-
916 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Oglethorpe
and southeastern Madison Counties through 945 PM EDT...

At 916 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Comer, or 8 miles
southeast of Danielsville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Comer, Colbert, Carlton, Smithonia, Watson Mill Bridge State Park,
Point Peter, and Paoli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8282 3396 8319 3407 8324 3414 8306
      3412 8305 3411 8303 3410 8304 3408 8300
      3405 8299 3403 8293 3401 8294 3401 8291
      3399 8287 3399 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 262DEG 21KT 3403 8314

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Culver

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
935 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ070-071-190200-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-
935 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Monroe and
southeastern Lamar Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 935 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Collier, or near
Forsyth. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Forsyth, Redbone, Bolingbroke, Goggins, Collier, Johnstonville,
Brent, Plant Scherer, and Juliette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8410 3314 8411 3314 8382 3313 8382
      3312 8381 3300 8373 3293 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 163DEG 3KT 3305 8404

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Culver

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
951 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

GAZ072-082-083-190215-
Bibb GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
951 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Bibb, northwestern
Twiggs and southeastern Jones Counties through 1015 PM EDT...

At 950 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Rutland, or near Macon,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Payne, Payne City, Postell, James, Rutland, Mountain Springs,
Griswoldville, Huber, Cross Keys, Dry Branch, Skipperton,
Franklinton, Middle Georgia Regional Airport, and Elberta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 8362 3267 8363 3268 8367 3269 8370
      3269 8374 3272 8377 3290 8370 3299 8349
      3290 8341 3286 8339 3266 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 209DEG 17KT 3277 8360

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Culver