Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

   - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each
     afternoon through the weekend.

   - Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds
     will be the primary hazards with any storms that develop.

   - Gradual warming continues into the weekend, with the return
     of heat index values in the triple digits for some.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Afternoon Showers and Storms:

Moist northwest flow wrapping around a mid-level ridge over the
Gulf will provide ample support for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Friday. The primary
threats from the isolated storms (20-25% chance) today will be
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.
Large scale forcing will be higher on Friday as a shortwave rides
along the northern side of the ridge, so thunderstorm coverage
will rise to scattered (40-60% chance). Storms could also be a
little stronger to even near severe on Friday, with the same
threats as today (winds, lightning, heavy rain).

Warming Some on Friday:

Hot and humid conditions (typical for mid-July) will continue today,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values in
the upper 90s to low 100s. Slightly higher dewpoints will move in
on Friday, bringing peak heat index values above 100 across most
of the region. A Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of Eastern
Georgia, where heat index values may exceed 105F. Winds will be out
of the northwest around 7-10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph, which
will try its hardest to make the heat less brutal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

As the extended period begins on Saturday morning, a weak low at
the 500 mb level over the northwestern Gulf will begin to meander
towards the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, an upper level trough
moving across the Great Lakes will extend southward through the
Ohio Valley region, continuing eastward towards the Atlantic
coast. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place between these
two features, with low temperatures (and dewpoints) on Saturday
starting off in the mid 70s across the majority of the area. High
temperatures will be near to just above seasonal normals, ranging
from the upper 80s in far north Georgia to the mid 90s in areas
south of I-85. Heat index values are also forecast to rise to over
100 across the majority of the state, excluding the far northern
tier. Locations in east-central Georgia could furthermore exceed
105 which would warrant a Heat Advisory in a later forecast
update. With little change in the airmass north and central
Georgia, temperatures and dewpoints will be similar on Sunday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the area on Saturday and Sunday, with PoPs (50-60%) highest
during the afternoon with diurnal enhancement. Mid-range guidance
also indicates the development of surface troughing to the east
of the Appalachians by late Saturday afternoon and into Sunday.
The presence of this trough and ample instability could favor the
formation of organized clusters of storms. A surface cold front
stretching horizontally across Kentucky could furthermore storms
on Sunday, which could also become organized as they drop towards
north Georgia within northwesterly flow. In both cases, these
storms could produce strong wind gusts in addition to the
requisite heavy rain and frequent lightning that come with
summertime storms.

By Sunday, the 500 mb low will phase with the trough, which will
cause it to get pulled northeast towards the Georgia/South
Carolina Coast. The National Hurricane Center has identified a 20%
probability of tropical development in association with this
feature over the next 7 days. Uncertainty and inconsistency remain
in the guidance on the movement of this feature, and if it even
develops at all. However, a stronger southern feature will likely
correspond with drier northeasterly flow on the back side of the
system, which will in turn result in lower chances of showers and
thunderstorms on Monday through mid-week. PoPs on Monday and
Tuesday are limited to slight chance at this time, while low-end
chance PoPs return to central Georgia on Wednesday. This outcome
will be sensitive to the development and path of the southern
feature and any interaction with the trough, and will need to be
monitored as the forecast continues to come together.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Primarily VFR conditions through the period outside of potential
impacts from SHRA and TSRA, with SCT-BKN CU fields through the
evening around 3-4kft. The most likely window would be 19-23Z.
Winds will remain out of the W/NW at 5-10kts, with gusts to 18kts
during the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Moderate on SHRA/TSRA timing and potential through the evening.
High on other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  74  93 /  10  40  10  40
Atlanta         75  91  75  91 /  10  50  10  40
Blairsville     69  86  69  85 /  10  70  10  60
Cartersville    73  91  73  91 /  10  40  10  40
Columbus        75  93  75  93 /  10  30  20  60
Gainesville     75  93  74  91 /  10  60  10  40
Macon           73  93  74  92 /  10  30  30  50
Rome            72  91  72  91 /   0  40  10  50
Peachtree City  73  91  73  91 /  10  40  20  60
Vidalia         75  95  74  94 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
413 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-172015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
413 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through sunset.
Any storms that form will be capable of producing gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms are likely each day
through Sunday. Any storms that form will be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat concerns will return late week as maximum heat index values
are expected to rise into the triple digits.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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