Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A much cooler airmass will start to spread into the area Today,
    and will remain in place through the weekend.

  - A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across
    far North GA, with widespread low clouds across the rest of
    the area.

  - Rain chances drop to near zero from Thursday through the
    weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Main story will be the strong wedge setting up across the region
ushering in the long awaited first taste of fall. Sub 60 dewpoints
now being observed in south carolina and should be advecting into
the state through the evening into Thursday with 40's dewpoints
on the map, yes, thats right, 40's dewpoints, in the area by
Friday AM.

In the mid levels, ridging that has dominated our area is being
pushed back into the southern plains while NW flow sets up across
the east on the western side of an upper low developing over the
Carolinas. That low is helping to wrap a much cooler and drier
airmass southward along the appalachians stemming from a strong
surface ridge over New England. The end result...strong surface
wedging for us stays in place a few days with much much cooler air
along with some low clouds for a few days. Moisture profile
suggests clouds should linger most of the day tomorrow into Friday
and hinder daytime max temps with 70's generally areawide on Thur
and even some 60s for highs in the higher elevations. After today,
pops diminish to near zero with the cooler drier airmass in place.
Forecast min temps friday AM drop into the 50s which should that
occur at ATL, would be the first 50s temp since June 3.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

As the long-term period begins, our area remains situated between
the eastern periphery of a retreating mid-to-upper level ridge over
southern Texas and a strengthening coastal low shifting
northeastward. At the surface, the wedging pattern over our area
will begin to break down on Friday as northeast winds become more
variable under relative high pressure. The sensible weather impacts
of this pattern will be continued drier and cooler conditions under
strong subsidence through the weekend as a Canadian airmass is cut
off and shifted toward our area along the backside of the low. As a
result, expect more seasonable early fall temperatures, with highs
ranging from the low 70s over our mountain counties to the low-to-
mid 80s across the rest of the CWA through the weekend. Morning lows
will dip into at least the mid-to-upper 50s over the bulk of our
area through early next week. As an aside, the last time the Atlanta
Metro dropped into the 50s for morning lows was June 3rd, so this
cooler air is a welcomed addition to the long-term forecast.

With drier conditions in place, precipitation chances remain limited
through the middle of next week, capped at around 10% for isolated
convection areawide. By late next week, PWAT values and rain chances
will be on the increase as surface winds shift to the south ahead of
a potential approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Wedge front established across all TAF sites today resulting in
consistent east wind, but also more CIGS. Metro sites have bounced
up a little more than earlier guidance...likely due to enough
solar insolation getting through. Forecast will reflect a little
higher CU base than previous before BKN to OVC lowering of the
deck sets in this evening with continued wedge reinforcement.
Expect some MVFR into the evening yielding to IFR after midnight
at most sites and lingering into the AM. Should get to low end
MVFR by late AM/early afternoon on Thu. All mention of pops have
been removed from the TAF as guidance has backed off on shower
activity..although cannot rule out pockets of DZ in the AM.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  71  55  78 /  20  10   0   0
Atlanta         64  74  59  78 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     56  70  54  74 /  50  50  10   0
Cartersville    63  77  59  78 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus        67  80  60  81 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     61  72  57  78 /  20  10   0   0
Macon           66  76  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            62  78  59  79 /  40   0  10   0
Peachtree City  63  75  56  79 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         67  78  60  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1256 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1256 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over mostly North
Georgia this afternoon through the evening. A few storms could
have strong gusty winds, frequent lightening, and locally heavy
rainfall. Additionally, some of these storms could have excessive
rainfall rates with isolated flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Drier and cooler conditions are expect through the first of next
week with limited precipitation chances. Hazardous weather is not
expect at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

GAZ005-007-231900-
Gilmer GA-Murray GA-
226 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Gilmer
and east central Murray Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 226 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Fort Mountain State
Park, or 8 miles east of Chatsworth. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Chatsworth, Mountaintown, Fort Mountain State Park, and Tails Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8452 3469 8472 3480 8480 3482 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 158DEG 0KT 3476 8464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH