Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
125 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Low chance for showers and storms this afternoon, but locally
  heavy rainfall is possible with any storms that form.

- Warm temperatures persist through the week with most areas
  remaining dry Wednesday and Thursday.

- Increased moisture brings scattered showers and thunderstorms this
  weekend with perhaps a slight drop in temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Satellite imagery and regional radar show a remnant MCV centered
over northern Maverick and southern Val Verde county. This
disturbance was responsible for several inches of rainfall for the
Edwards Plateau and portions of the Rio Grande Plains yesterday.
Additional showers and storms are expected to form in the Rio Grande
Plains this afternoon and evening, with locally heavy downpours and
minor flooding being the primary concern. Elsewhere, a weak mid-
level trough sagging south over the ArkLaTex will result in shower
and storm development over the eastern part of the state. Here
locally, remnant moisture and strong daytime heating should allow
some activity to develop this afternoon and evening over areas
generally along and east of US 281, but a stray shower or storm
cannot be ruled out over the Edwards Plateau again. Any activity
will produce locally heavy rainfall capable of minor flooding given
slow storm motions. Storms that do form should fizzle out quickly
after 03Z.

Wednesday will be a hot and dry day with the aforementioned MCV and
mid-level trough out of the picture and shortwave ridging building
over south central Texas. Temperatures will start out in the upper
60s to middle 70s, warming into the mid to upper 90s by the
afternoon along with mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Thursday will be yet another dry day with temperatures climbing into
the mid to upper 90s again. Heat indices should remain tame given
adequate afternoon mixing lowering dewpoints by later in the day.
Friday starts the transition to increasing moisture as a
disturbance/inverted trough over the southwestern Gulf lifts
northward and brings a good chance for showers and storms back into
the picture for the weekend. PWATs will surge into the 2-2.25" range
Saturday and Sunday, which would result in heavy rainfall rates and
tropical-like downpours in any showers or storms that form. Beyond
Sunday, a more active pattern may develop with broadscale troughing
noted over the western CONUS and southern Plains states while the
subtropical high moves over the northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions have returned across the region, with the
remaining MVFR CIGs in the KDRT area expected to improve shortly.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA is possible near KAUS this afternoon and
evening. Should this occur, accompanying CB cloud bases may drop
from around FL050 to FL025. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions
are favored overnight with intermittent MVFR CIGs at KSAT/KSSF
supported by weak winds closer to sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  76  98  76 /  20  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  74  97  74 /  20  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  74  97  73 /  20  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  73  96  74 /  20  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  75  96  76 /  50  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  74  97  76 /  20  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  73  96  72 /  20  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  74  97  73 /  20  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  75  97  76 /  20  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  75  96  75 /  20  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  75  96  74 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...Tran

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
321 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

TXZ224-225-072045-
Lavaca TX-De Witt TX-
321 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern DeWitt
and southwestern Lavaca Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Yoakum, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yoakum, Hallettsville, Shiner, Worthing, Koerth, Edgar, Terryville,
Mount Olive, Mont, Sweet Home, and Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2912 9700 2910 9725 2937 9726 2938 9724
      2943 9723 2944 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 178DEG 13KT 2927 9713

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM