Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1258 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Concern for locally heavy rain with isolated instances of flash
  flooding during the overnight into this morning; greatest area
  of concern along and south of the I-10/US Highway 90 corridor.

- Lingering of low to medium (20-40%) rain and storm chances for
  this afternoon through Sunday morning before a drier pattern
  establishes.

- Summer heat featuring elevated heat indices through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A lull in activity occurred through the evening hours behind the
outflow/frontal boundary that had advanced across the region earlier
today. That boundary had sparked some isolated to scattered rain and
storms but also some significant relief to the hazardous heat we had
experienced recently. Several short term guidance members show an
increase in rain and storm coverage into and through the overnight
hours tonight, with the greatest concentration generally near and to
the south of the I-10/US HWY 90 corridor. This could be associated
with or at least an extension of a storm complex that has developed
just to the west of the Rio Grande across Mexico down by Laredo. The
activity may also connect with the nearby boundary, sparking
additional activity. Rainfall rates with the overnight activity
could become quite heavy with rates in excess of 2-3 inches per hour
at times. Given this potential, isolated instances of flash flooding
will remain possible. Activity could push south or southeastward
into the CRP CWA near or not too long after sunrise. I'll continue
to note that the confidence on the rain and storms remains low given
the chaotic nature of the recent storm complexes within the weak
steering flow aloft.

Later today remains dependent on how the atmosphere recovers from
the possible overnight into early morning activity. Overall, heat
indices should remain below heat advisory criteria but could reach
in excess of 100 degrees for locations along the I-35 corridor, and
within the Coastal and Rio Grande Plains. Enough instability could
establish with daytime heating where isolated to scattered shower
and storm activity will be possible from the afternoon into the
night, mainly to the east of the Rio Grande. Activity may linger
into Sunday morning.

Sunday afternoon then looks to start the drying trend regarding the
area rain chances and this continues onward into the long term as
the long term forecast discussion below highlights. Mid-level
ridging remains in control to our west along the Arizona/New Mexico
border and Northern Mexico. It expands a bit father east into West
Texas Sunday and this would kick the broad troughiness that is over
the region currently, to the east. Heat then returns to being the
primary story with the afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and
heat indices peaking between 100 to 110 degrees. We'll monitor area
extent of the heat indices near or above 108 as we get closer in
time to evaluate a possible issuance of a Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Mid-level ridging remains anchored through much of the long term
period to our west across Northern Mexico to near or just south of
the Arizona/New Mexico border. The eastern periphery of the ridge
will continue to push into West Texas. For South-Central Texas,
we'll remain under a northerly flow aloft. The forecast will remain
mostly rain free but with the northerly flow, we'll have to keep a
close eye on any convection to the north that would try to slide
southward. For now, majority of the guidance favors keeping the
activity across Oklahoma/Arkansas with some activity reaching
southward into the northern half of Texas. Otherwise, a persistent
south-southeasterly low-level flow will keep hot and humid weather
in place with elevated heat indices. Afternoon highs generally
remain in the mid 90s while the overnight lows fall into the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Backbuilding convection is occurring over N Bexar County and will
present a lightning threat for SAT and SSF for much of the pre-
dawn hours. A smaller pocket of convection could impact AUS
through around 07Z. Recent runs of the HRRR suggest DRT is out of
the area of convective focus, so we've opted out of putting any
convective elements there. Assuming the convection areas wane
closer to daybreak, will assume the normal diurnal trend for MVFR
CIGs take over in an above normal rainfall pattern for June
keeping most hours cloudy in the 06Z to 18Z time window.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  77  95  78 /  30  10  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  77  94  79 /  30  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  77  94  77 /  30  20  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            89  76  93  77 /  30  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  77  96  79 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  77  94  78 /  40  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             91  76  94  77 /  30  20  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  77  94  77 /  30  20  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  78  93  79 /  50  20  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  78  93  78 /  30  30  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           91  78  93  78 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...18

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