Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of strong to severe storms likely this evening into tonight.

- Seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather expected Monday and
  the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of South
Central Texas through midnight tonight. The main severe threats
are damaging wind gusts (some up to 75 mph) and large hail. Can't
rule out an isolated tornado mainly across the Hill Country area.
In addition, locally heavy rain is forecast with the passage of
the cold front this evening and part of the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move northwest
to southeast across most of South-Central Texas this evening into
tonight. The primary severe threat posed by these storms is
damaging wind, with a more isolated potential for large hail and
locally heavy rain. Strong lines of storms can produce wide swaths
of gusts of 50-60 mph with stronger pockets of gusts near and
above 75 mph possible. Frequent lightning is also likely. The
severe risk is expected to be highest when storms first enter the
Hill Country and Austin area earlier in the evening, and the SPC
has highlighted a Level 3 of 5 (Enhanced) risk of severe weather
for these areas primarily due to the strong wind concerns. Storms
should remain strong to severe as they move farther south with a
continued threat for strong winds and locally heavy rain, but the
severe risk is expected to gradually decline later in the night.

An upper-level shortwave trough currently diving southeast over
the Rockies and an accompanying cold front will provide the lift
to trigger widespread thunderstorms this evening. This front is
already moving across North Texas as of early afternoon Sunday and
will be encroaching upon our area soon. There is a low to medium
chance of a few isolated thunderstorms developing earlier in the
day (with mainly a lightning, gusty wind, and small hail threat),
mainly over the Coastal Plains, in the late afternoon and early
evening. The dry- line should also push slightly eastward into Val
Verde County ahead of the approaching front and may itself be a
trigger for some isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon over
the southern Edwards Plateau, but the cold front will produce the
majority of the storm and severe activity. Most models indicate
an initial arrival of storms in the Hill Country near or just
after sunset, starting by about 7 PM, reaching the I-35 corridor
over the following hours and moving across the Coastal Plains
closer to midnight. It is worth noting that storms of this variety
with conditions favoring a wind- driven line of storms can often
accelerate in forward speed during their development, so it is
plausible that storm arrival could be a few hours earlier than the
model consensus. In general, the focus is this evening. The
greatest chances for severe weather for any particular location
will likely be in the first 1-2 hours of storm onset. Stay indoors
and have multiple ways to receive weather information.

The highest likelihood for stormy weather and a more contiguous
line of storms is generally over the Hill Country, I-35 corridor,
and Coastal Plains, where the forward momentum of these storms is
expected to be greatest. There is some uncertainty over the
western extent of the line of storms over the Rio Grande Plains
and areas west of US-83, but overall storm activity is still
likely to be at least scattered in those areas with isolated
severe potential. This evening's storms will likely be moving
briskly, keeping regional rain totals mostly in the 0.5-1 inch
range. However, a few pockets of heavier downpours could produce
isolated and locally higher totals in the 2-4 inch range.

Once the main line of storms and cold front passes, residual
lightning and light rain from the trailing stratiform cloud deck
may continue for a few hours, but will subside with the entirety
of South-Central Texas dry by sunrise on Monday. Light northerly
winds throughout the day will keep temperatures in check, though
temperatures should still warm into the upper 70s (with the most
moderated temperatures in the Hill Country and Austin area) to mid
80s (with the warmest temperatures in the Rio Grande Plains)
under mostly sunny conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Dry and warm weather is expected to continue for much of the week
as a ridge builds overhead and maintains strength. Widespread
highs in the 90s are expected by Thursday and Friday, continuing
into the weekend. The last few afternoons of the week are forecast
to be breezy as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the
Plains. Rain chances stay near-zero for the entire work week, but
some rain potential may start to reenter the picture early next
week as the ridge weakens and a few upper-level disturbances start
to impinge on our area within largely zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a cold
front is forecast to push across the area terminals this
evening/night period. Storms are forecast to affect the KDRT first
between 01Z through 03Z Monday, then KAUS from 02Z through 04Z
Monday, and for KSAT/KSSF between 03Z and 05Z Monday. Several
hires models show the line of storms bowing through this
evening/night with the potential for strong wind gusts of 35 knots
to 45 knots. Also, large hail is possible with stronger storms.
In addition, heavy rain and strong wind gusts could bring
visibilities to 2 miles. The storms are forecast to quickly move
to the south and into the Coastal Plains after midnight tonight.
The winds decrease overnight, however, stay around the 8 to 10
knots. MVFR cigs are forecast middle of the overnight period
through late Monday morning with VFR conditions returning for the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  81  65  85 /  90  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  81  65  85 /  90  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  82  64  85 /  90  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  78  61  83 /  90  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  85  67  88 /  60  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  79  63  83 /  90  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  84  64  87 /  70  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  82  64  85 /  90  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  81  66  83 /  90  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  84  65  87 /  80  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           68  84  66  87 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
857 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     Hail             Burnet                  30.76N 98.22W
05/10/2026  M1.00 Inch       Burnet             TX   Trained Spotter

            Report of 1 inch hail in Burnet via Trained
            Spotter.

&&

EH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
859 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     Hail             5 SSE Florence          30.77N 97.75W
05/10/2026  E1.00 Inch       Williamson         TX   Emergency Mngr

            Report of quarter sized hail on State
            Highway 195 south of Florence and north of
            Sun City.

&&

EH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
902 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ173-110245-
Williamson TX-
902 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Williamson County through 945 PM CDT...

At 902 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Weir, or near Serenada, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Granger, Serenada, Bartlett, Jarrell, Granger Dam, Theon,
Laneport, Walburg, and Schwertner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9727 3067 9724 3070 9770 3086 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 250DEG 4KT 3074 9763

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
928 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ173-190>193-206-110315-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Williamson TX-Bastrop TX-Hays TX-Travis TX-
928 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Williamson, Hays,
Travis, central Blanco, northwestern Bastrop and northeastern Comal
Counties through 1015 PM CDT...

At 928 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Weir to Bee Cave to near Fischer. Movement
was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown, San Marcos, Pflugerville,
Kyle, Taylor, Buda, Elgin, Dripping Springs, Wimberley, Blanco,
Granger, Tanglewood Forest, Serenada, Anderson Mill, Austin Bergstrom
Int Airport, Windemere, and Leander.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9727 3049 9717 3043 9724 3040 9733
      3039 9730 3015 9754 3007 9765 3007 9766
      2994 9780 2990 9787 2981 9796 3007 9847
      3044 9820 3043 9812 3046 9810 3049 9810
      3049 9812 3052 9811 3089 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 299DEG 33KT 3064 9760 3033 9795 3003 9832

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
937 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ194-110330-
Lee TX-
937 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Lee
County through 1030 PM CDT...

At 937 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lexington, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Tanglewood, Fedor, Knobb Springs, Blue, and Leo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 9711 3034 9720 3040 9732 3046 9715
      3056 9697 3054 9692 3049 9690 3047 9691
      3046 9690 3046 9688 3044 9687 3043 9687
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 136DEG 9KT 3039 9705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Platt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
944 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ186-187-189-190-203>207-217>220-228-110330-
Maverick TX-Uvalde TX-Bexar TX-Blanco TX-Dimmit TX-Bandera TX-
Frio TX-Guadalupe TX-Comal TX-Atascosa TX-Kerr TX-Medina TX-
Kendall TX-Zavala TX-
944 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Bandera,
northwestern Dimmit, west central Guadalupe, southeastern Uvalde,
northwestern Atascosa, Kendall, Medina, southeastern Kerr,
northeastern Maverick, southwestern Blanco, Zavala, northern Frio,
Bexar and Comal Counties through 1030 PM CDT...

At 944 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Canyon Lake Dam to near Boerne to near
D'Hanis to 12 miles north of Cometa. Movement was south at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, New Braunfels, Schertz, Cibolo, Converse, Universal
City, Uvalde, Live Oak, Boerne, Selma, Pearsall, Hondo, Crystal City,
Carrizo Springs, Devine, Castroville, Comfort, Bandera, La Pryor, and
Tarpley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2902 10021 2993 9908 3007 9846 2982 9802
      2978 9801 2928 9852 2886 9909 2842 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 337DEG 45KT 2991 9820 2975 9877 2936 9935 2884
10005

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Platt