Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
549 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain threats continue on
  today into Friday.

- Dry and cooler over the weekend with a warming trend into the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A low amplitude upper level ridge has the flow over Texas nearly
zonal again tonight. A cold front is stretched across our CWA from
Hallettsville to Pleasanton to Del Rio. Ahead of the front winds are
from the southeast and behind the front they are from the north to
northeast. The airmass remains warm and moist south of the front
with cooler and drier air behind it. An upper trough will move
across northern Mexico during the the short term period gradually
turning the flow from westerly to southwesterly. The front will
stall somewhere around our southern border today. This will mean
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day
today with better chances across the northern counties. Tonight the
upper trough will move across TX bringing widespread chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Deep moisture will surge in ahead of the
trough increasing PW values leading to the potential for locally
heavy rain tonight into Friday. Friday afternoon winds will shift to
north-northeasterly bringing a more stable airmass to the region.
Cooler air will move in with highs mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

There may some lingering showers or storms over the east Friday
evening. All of the convection should be off to the east by midnight
Friday night. Saturday dry weather will return. And along with it,
cooler temperatures. Lows Saturday morning will range from the
middle 40s over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to the
middle 50s over the Rio Grande Plains and the Coastal Plains. Highs
Saturday will be from the middle 60s to the low 70s. Sunday morning
will be a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday and then we will
begin to warm back up. Dry weather will continue for the early part
of the week with warming temperatures. Highs will be back to well
above normal by Tuesday. Wednesday another frontal boundary will
bring low rain chances to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A rather messy forecast at area terminals over the next 24-30
hours as showers and thunderstorms, likely in multiple rounds will
move through the region. Winds are more north to northeasterly
this morning but will shift to more easterly and east-
northeasterly by the late morning hours. Have kept PROB30s for
TSRA in place and introduced prevailing TSRA after 06Z at AUS,
after 07Z at SAT and SSF and after 06Z at DRT. The region will be
mostly socked in in MVFR/IFR ceilings, but some breaks may occur
at SAT, SSF, and DRT this afternoon before filling back in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  60  64  53 /  40  90 100  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  79  61  65  52 /  40  90 100  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     79  62  66  52 /  30  90 100  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  56  60  50 /  60  90 100  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  66  74  55 /  40  90  90  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  58  62  50 /  50  90 100  30
Hondo Muni Airport             82  63  68  51 /  20  90 100  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        79  61  65  52 /  30  90 100  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  63  67  53 /  30  80 100  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  63  67  53 /  30  90 100  20
Stinson Muni Airport           83  65  68  54 /  20  80 100  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1100 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

TXZ171-301645-
Llano TX-
1100 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Llano
County through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Valley Spring, or 13 miles northwest of Llano, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Llano, Buchanan Lake Village, Baby Head, Lone Grove, Stolz, Bluffton,
Valley Spring, and Tow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 9846 3087 9843 3069 9842 3079 9895
      3092 9893 3092 9845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 278DEG 27KT 3087 9885

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

TXZ171-172-301800-
Llano TX-Burnet TX-
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Llano and west
central Burnet Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1209 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Llano, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsland, Llano, Buchanan Dam, Gainesville, Buchanan Lake Village,
Castell, Field Creek, Inks Lake State Park, Lone Grove, Bluffton,
Valley Spring, Baby Head, Stolz, Longhorn Cavern State Park, Oxford,
Tow, and Prairie Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3095 9837 3064 9831 3055 9896 3092 9896
      3092 9845 3093 9844 3093 9842 3095 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 259DEG 34KT 3075 9871

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

27