Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms possible west of the I-35
  Corridor overnight.

- Chance for isolated storms Wednesday mainly north of Highway 90; a
  near widespread chance of rain and storms Saturday from a cold
  front.

- Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal
  this weekend into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A rude beginning to the overnight forecast package came with severe
storms that slightly overachieved their timing and a very untimely
KDFX radar crash with a severe storm bearing down on top of Del Rio.
The steady but unstable SW flow aloft will continue to supply
dynamics and Pacific moisture to keep this activity going through at
least 2 AM, but most of the HREF solutions diminish this activity
between 2 and 5 AM. Long lived elevated showers left behind
dissipated storms are a good sign that PWat values are quite
elevated, and the HRRR confirms this with up to 1.75 at around DRT
in one of the more recent runs. With the near midnight observation
of heavy lightning and storms that are starting to train a bit, we
could see some flash flooding take place before we able to get the
storm trends in the right direction.

With the slight over achievement of convection and another round
expected to light up over the Hill Country for Wednesday, we may
need to review the rain chances for the daytime and possibly expand
higher chances farther south than what is out there currently. But
for now we'll stick to the blends and hope the consensus is correct
on the lower coverages. With the type of storms we are getting and
the amount of training occurring, localized flooding is a
possibility, and not having a radar to cover the western areas that
already got some heavy rain could be a bit nerve-racking.

Later in the evening, the cap is assumed to have strengthened as
coverage wains somewhat early in the nigh as compared to what we're
seeing tonight. This is also shown in the high temperature forecast
for Thursday that is expected to perk up about 5 degrees over what's
expected for Wednesday. No rain is currently forecast for Thursday
but there are expected to be some dry-line storms just northwest of
our CWA Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Friday, persistence weather is expected as the weak ridging pattern
over the area is similar to that of Thursday. Breezy, warm and humid
conditions will give way to another day of highs in the 80s to mid
90s. Friday night, the pattern destabilizes from another low
latitude upper trough into the SW CONUS, setting up more unstable SW
flow aloft over TX. Initially the storms will stick to the western
counties as they have been tonight, but a cold front arriving
Saturday will bring what could be a widespread rain event with most
of the falling rain overrunning behind the front. The leading edge
storms could be strong as one might expect in April, but we think
most of the post frontal activity should be better behaved as the
frontal layer to arrive is apparently going to be quite a bit deeper
than our more recent fronts. Plus the cold front is set to arrive
fairly early in the day. Besides having the strong front cooling us
off for a late spring treat, we also should benefit from a favorable
pattern of continued overrunning which might help us on the rain
deficit problem.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR cigs are forecast for the I-35 sites through about noon/17Z.
A cluster of storms could move across KDRT between 06z and 07Z
to bring lower cigs and vbsys to 3SM in addition wind gusts up to
35 knots assuming the storms move over the terminal. Otherwise,
MVFR cigs are forecast overnight through late Wednesday morning.
There is a time window around 12Z where IFR cigs could happen, but
there is low confidence with that. VFR conditions return around
noon at the I-35 sites and a few hours later for KDRT.
Southeasterly to south winds 8 to 14 knots with gusts up to 25
knots are forecast for all area sites throughout the day and early
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  69  89  69 /  40  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  68  90  69 /  30  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  67  89  69 /  30  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            81  66  85  67 /  50  30  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  69  90  70 /  20  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  67  87  68 /  40  40   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             83  65  89  66 /  40  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  67  89  69 /  30  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  69  89  69 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  69  89  70 /  30  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           86  70  90  70 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
212 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

TXZ202-203-150800-
Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-
212 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Kinney
and southwestern Uvalde Counties through 300 AM CDT...

At 212 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spofford, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brackettville, Spofford, Laguna, Dabney, Blewett, Cline, Anacacho,
Turkey Mountain, Fort Clark Springs, and Laughlin AFB Aux Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2911 10048 2927 10049 2948 9998 2918 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 256DEG 32KT 2921 10038

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
215 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

TXZ186>188-150800-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-Bandera TX-
215 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Bandera, central Kerr and southwestern Gillespie Counties through 300
AM CDT...

At 215 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Lost Maples State Natural Area, or 12 miles
northeast of Vanderpool, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kerrville, Vanderpool, Ingram, Hunt, Camp Verde, Center Point,
Kerrville-Schreiner Park, Lost Maples State Natural Area, and
Waltonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2986 9896 2974 9960 2980 9961 3000 9959
      3023 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 241DEG 31KT 2991 9947

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

17

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