Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

130 
WWUS54 KEWX 130138
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

TXC299-130148-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-260413T0200Z/
Llano TX-
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3080 9896 3092 9896 3092 9866
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 245DEG 2KT 3092 9881 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
551 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect for potentially life-threatening flash flooding
  somewhere in the watch area this afternoon and evening over
  the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains.

- A very humid and unsettled weather pattern continues through the
  middle of the upcoming week with daily rain and thunderstorm
  chances.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, with
  the greatest threat out west along the Rio Grande.

- The potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy
  rainfall continues into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Broad southwesterly flow at 500mb will continue for the foreseeable
future. This will lead to a series of mid-level shortwaves rippling
through this broad SW flow aloft. Each shortwave may fire off
showers and storms, but both storm intensity and coverage are
highly dependent on the timing of these individual shortwave
disturbances. One such shortwave will move through the region this
afternoon/evening, with the HRRR along with HREF indicating the
potential for flash flooding and severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds.

Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding is
possible, especially over the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains where
a Flood Watch is in effect through Monday morning for potential of 2-
4 inches of rain with some isolated amounts between 5-10
inches. PWATs between 1.25-1.75" are around 150-175% of of normal
for mid-April over South Central Texas. Any storms that form will
likely contain torrential rainfall, with training of storms
being the primary reason for the flooding concerns.
Rainfall rates of up to 2-3" per hour are possible given the
environment in place and a quick 5-10" is possible within the
watch area. Be sure to monitor the weather and have Wireless
Emergency Alerts active on your phone in the event of a Flash
Flood Warning.

Despite dryline storm initiation yesterday, any convection that
forms this afternoon/evening will be tied to the strength of the
mid-level shortwave embedded in this southwesterly flow. Model Theta-
e forecasts indicate the dryline will sharpen well west of our area,
over West Texas, however, 0-6km Bulk Shear of 35-45 kts, in
combination with HREF SBCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range will
produce a favorable environment for severe storms to form. Large
hail appears to be the primary concern as well given the HRRR
spitting out MUCAPE values >3000 J/kg and 700-500mb lapse rates
between 7-8 C/km. Any storms that can tap into this environment out
west this afternoon may produce golf ball to tennis ball size hail.
Damaging wind and a tornado cannot be ruled out either, but hail
looks to be the biggest threat. The Storm Prediction Center has most
of our area within a Level 2/5 risk today, given the environment
noted above.

Monday will feature yet another threat for strong to severe storms.
SPC has another level 1 of 5 risk for the Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande Plains. Monday's storm threat will be focused more on
dryline development than Sunday's storms. Storms would develop over
west of the Rio Grande and move off higher terrain or the dryline
over west Texas and into the EWX CWA. Once again, the greatest
threat from any storms that form looks to be large hail, but
damaging wind is also a possibility. PWATs are not as high on
Monday out west, so the flooding threat is low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The long term period will remain active, as that persistent
southwesterly 500mb flow continues. An upper level trough that's
slowly moving inland over California will finally move into the Four
Corners by Tuesday morning. Another round of showers and storms,
some strong to severe is possible Tuesday, again over the Southern
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Another round of showers and
storms, some possibly strong to severe, will occur Wednesday
afternoon and evening, primarily west of I-35, but some of these
storms could work east into the I-35 Corridor late Wednesday
evening.

The upper level trough will eventually eject and open up over the
Plains on Wednesday, bringing an end to our more active stretch of
weather the past week. Thursday and Friday will feature highs back
in the mid to upper 80s with dry conditions. Beyond that, global
models are actually in agreement on the passage of a fairly strong
cold front for mid-April. While the ECMWF has a passage on Saturday
afternoon, the GFS has a frontal passage on Saturday night. Both
models feature rain and thunderstorms developing along this front.
It is too early to say whether severe weather is possible with this
boundary, but keep checking back over the next couple days as the
forecast is further refined and confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Mainly VFR to MVFR conditions across the area to start the period
with MVFR ceilings favored to develop again first over I-35 corridor
and Coastal Plains, then spread west across the area into early
Monday morning. Showers may continue over the I-35 terminals for the
next few hours with low chances for thunderstorm redevelopment
tonight that will need to be monitored. Ceilings likely drop to IFR
between 03-06Z at I-35 terminals, then around 12Z for KDRT. Ceilings
may drop to LIFR and patchy dense fog may develop, but confidence is
low and not mentioned in the forecast. Ceilings are slow to lift and
scatter with IFR to MVFR conditions into early Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  85  69  86 /  60  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  85  68  85 /  60  20   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  86  68  86 /  50  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            67  83  67  82 /  50  10  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  87  70  84 /  10  20  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  82  67  82 /  60  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             67  85  68  85 /  40  20  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  85  68  85 /  60  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  85  69  87 /  50  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  85  70  85 /  50  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  86  70  86 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ173-191>194-206>209-
223>225.

&&

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
356 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Flash Flood      9 WSW Moulton           29.54N 97.29W
04/12/2026                   Gonzales           TX   Dept of Highways

            Flooding over roadway FM 532 and FM 795.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
529 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Schulenburg             29.68N 96.91W
04/12/2026                   Fayette            TX   Public

            Wind damage with a tree down or two, minor
            structural damage, and a tossed trampoline
            or two in southwestern portions of
            Schulenburg. The radar had indicated a
            microburst signature in this region, time
            estimated by radar.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

TXZ209-225-122330-
Lavaca TX-Fayette TX-
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Fayette
and northwestern Lavaca Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Schulenburg to 8 miles
southeast of Flatonia to near Shiner. Movement was northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Schulenburg, Fayetteville, Komensky, Swiss Alp, Freyburg, Dubina,
Moravia, High Hill, Engle, Breslau, Ellinger, Witting, Ammannsville,
Vsetin, Mullins Prairie, and Holman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 9672 2963 9687 2961 9684 2958 9683
      2958 9679 2950 9672 2948 9713 2957 9707
      2975 9705 2996 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 231DEG 31KT 2973 9699 2961 9700 2947 9714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
737 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

TXZ171-130115-
Llano TX-
737 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Llano
County through 815 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Field Creek, or 15 miles northwest of Llano, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Spring and Field Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3077 9896 3077 9897 3092 9896 3092 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 222DEG 19KT 3088 9889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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