Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1004 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over the
southern Edwards Plateau into western Hill Country late this
afternoon into tonight; all severe hazards are possible.

- The severe weather risk decreases to level 1 to 2 farther east
towards the I-35 corridor tonight; main severe hazards will be large
hail and damaging winds.

- There is a level 1 to 2 risk for locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding across the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country and into the northern I-35 corridor through Wednesday
morning.

- Dry weather pattern Thursday through the rest of the period;
Slightly cooler Thursday behind Pacific front then warmer through
the weekend.

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The upper low will be moving over western Texas late this afternoon
and moving across the region overnight into Wednesday. Deep moisture
ahead of the dryline west of our area will keep rain chances across
most of South Central Texas today excluding the coastal plains.
Thunderstorms may develop over the northern I-35 corridor early this
afternoon, but capping would keep any activity isolated with most
models keeping the cap in place. That said, severe weather would be
possible with any isolated thunderstorm during this time with all
hazards possible.

The bulk of activity is still expected to begin over West Texas into
Val Verde County towards late afternoon and continue into the
overnight hours. To note, this is a bit sooner than previous
forecasts for initial development in the west. All modes of severe
weather are in play later this afternoon and evening with an
environment favorable for very large hail greater than 2 inches,
damaging winds up to 75 mph and even some tornadoes. Storms will
initially be supercellular, then form into a line along the Pacific
cold front moving west to east across the CWA. Low level parameters
remain favorable for tornado risk through late tonight especially if
any cells remain discrete ahead of the main line. Even when storms
form into a line and strong wind potential increases, brief
tornadoes cannot be ruled out mainly over the southern Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country. As storms continue to move east late
tonight, weakening instability may diminish severe thunderstorm
intensity as they approach the I-35 corridor sometime near or after
midnight.

Backtracking slightly to talk about heavy rain, the level 2 to 4
risk for excessive rainfall remains over the southern Edwards
Plateau but has been expanded further east into all of the Hill
Country and portions of the northern I-35 corridor. Heavy downpours
will accompany any storms today into tonight. Guidance has been
consistent with heavy rain over the southern Edwards Plateau tonight
with HREF guidance indicating local amounts from 2 to 4 inches which
may lead to flash flooding over this area. We will have to monitor
how storms trend tonight, but overall as storm intensity decreases
late tonight and early Wednesday morning the heavy rain threat will
also decrease. Rain amounts will vary across the area with perhaps
some locations in the Rio Grande Plains missing out entirely on rain.

The upper low deepens slightly as it moves over South Central Texas
Wednesday morning and is slightly slower to exit the area. Rain
chances linger over the I-35 corridor and coastal plains tomorrow
morning, with wrap around showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the northern I-35 corridor and coastal plains into the afternoon. A
few storms could become strong to marginally severe tomorrow with
large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Dry conditions
are expected by Wednesday evening bringing the end of rain chances
to our area for the rest of the short and long term forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The Tornado Watch was replaced by a Severe Thunderstorm Watch as
an expansion to the previous Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The watch
is in effect until 2 AM CDT Wednesday. All severe hazards are
possible especially large hail and damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The upper low will be moving over western Texas late this afternoon
and moving across the region overnight into Wednesday. Deep moisture
ahead of the dryline west of our area will keep rain chances across
most of South Central Texas today excluding the coastal plains.
Thunderstorms may develop over the northern I-35 corridor early this
afternoon, but capping would keep any activity isolated with most
models keeping the cap in place. That said, severe weather would be
possible with any isolated thunderstorm during this time with all
hazards possible.

The bulk of activity is still expected to begin over West Texas into
Val Verde County towards late afternoon and continue into the
overnight hours. To note, this is a bit sooner than previous
forecasts for initial development in the west. All modes of severe
weather are in play later this afternoon and evening with an
environment favorable for very large hail greater than 2 inches,
damaging winds up to 75 mph and even some tornadoes. Storms will
initially be supercellular, then form into a line along the Pacific
cold front moving west to east across the CWA. Low level parameters
remain favorable for tornado risk through late tonight especially if
any cells remain discrete ahead of the main line. Even when storms
form into a line and strong wind potential increases, brief
tornadoes cannot be ruled out mainly over the southern Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country. As storms continue to move east late
tonight, weakening instability may diminish severe thunderstorm
intensity as they approach the I-35 corridor sometime near or after
midnight.

Backtracking slightly to talk about heavy rain, the level 2 to 4
risk for excessive rainfall remains over the southern Edwards
Plateau but has been expanded further east into all of the Hill
Country and portions of the northern I-35 corridor. Heavy downpours
will accompany any storms today into tonight. Guidance has been
consistent with heavy rain over the southern Edwards Plateau tonight
with HREF guidance indicating local amounts from 2 to 4 inches which
may lead to flash flooding over this area. We will have to monitor
how storms trend tonight, but overall as storm intensity decreases
late tonight and early Wednesday morning the heavy rain threat will
also decrease. Rain amounts will vary across the area with perhaps
some locations in the Rio Grande Plains missing out entirely on rain.

The upper low deepens slightly as it moves over South Central Texas
Wednesday morning and is slightly slower to exit the area. Rain
chances linger over the I-35 corridor and coastal plains tomorrow
morning, with wrap around showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the northern I-35 corridor and coastal plains into the afternoon. A
few storms could become strong to marginally severe tomorrow with
large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Dry conditions
are expected by Wednesday evening bringing the end of rain chances
to our area for the rest of the short and long term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry weather is expected for the long term period. Cooler weather is
expected Thursday with another day by day warming trend through the
weekend. The warmest day of the week is forecast Sunday but will
need to watch the timing of the next cold front which is expected to
move across the area Sunday night. A big cool down is expected for
the start of next week bringing temperatures closer to seasonable
levels for mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

All area sites are reporting VFR as of 2320Z. However,
thunderstorm activity is on the way across the southern Edwards
Plateau moving into the Hill Country and away from the I-35
corridor terminals. A line of strong to severe storms is forecast
to push across Val Verde county around the 02Z to 05z time frame
and then slowly push to the east overnight. A broken line of
storms is forecast to affect the I-35 corridor between dawn and
12Z time window. Around midnight tonight (05Z), MVFR cigs are
forecast for the I-35 sites with lowering cigs as low as IFR as
storms push overhead. VFR conditions return in the wake of Pacific
front with wind shifting to the west and then northwest in the
afternoon. Moderate wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20
to 30 knots possible during the afternoon period. KDRT should
clear the convective activity overnight with light and variable
winds during the early morning hours of Wednesday, but wind flow
does increase to about 15 knots and gusting up to 25 knots in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  82  48  69 /  80  40  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  82  46  68 /  70  50  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  83  48  69 /  80  40  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            60  79  45  67 /  90  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           59  87  52  74 /  90   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  79  45  67 /  90  40  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             60  83  46  72 /  90  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  83  47  70 /  80  50  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  81  49  68 /  50  70  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  83  50  70 /  80  30  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  84  51  71 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

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