Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
706 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances for isolated to scattered rains today.

- Warm and humid weather next week with most areas remaining dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The upper-level low that contributed to last night's scattered
torrential rains is moving northeast, allowing a conveyor belt of
drier air aloft to work its way over South-Central Texas with the
more favored regions for heavy rain being pushed north and east of
the area. This subsidence should tend to have a suppressive effect
on storm potential in our region today, though the continued
presence of humid near-surface conditions should support isolated
shower activity heading into the evening today. Chances are greatest
east of I-35 (in the 30 to 50 percent range along the Highway 77
corridor) where PWATs are still in the 1.7-1.9 inch range (around
the 90th-95th percentile) and could support a few locally heavier
downpours. There is also a around 20 to 30 percent chance of
isolated showers closer to the upper-level low over the Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country through the evening, though overall
moisture content will be lower than yesterday. Given the sensitivity
of some of our soils from recent rains, it will still be worth
monitoring any heavier shower that overlaps with the most saturated
locations for increased runoff.

The core of the upper-level low is expected to move out of Texas
tonight. However, the lack of a front and persistence of the
subtropical jet stream over the state means southerly flow will
likely keep the air humid over the area heading into the week ahead
with mild nights and hot and muggy afternoons. The combination of
moisture and warmth will start to promote higher heat indices
(apparent temperatures). Heat indices are forecast to near or top
100F for many in the area Sunday, with the highest chances of heat
indices reaching the 100-105F range in the Winter Garden and Rio
Grande Plains. Trailing convergence from air funneling up towards
the outgoing upper-level low may lead to a few afternoon showers and
storms mainly east of I-35 on Sunday with chances around 20-30
percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Broad but weak subtropical ridging will start to build over Gulf and
our area Monday, and gradually slosh its way west through the
upcoming week. This should keep most areas dry for the week, though
southerly flow should continue to sweep in Gulf air beneath the
ridge and may occasionally spark a few seabreeze showers and storms
in the Coastal Plains each late-afternoon. Without much to clear out
the influx of warm air, elevated temperatures and dew points will
continue to drive up heat indices. Highs are forecast to remain in
the 90s with lows in the 70s, but peak heat indices in the 100-105F
range could become more widespread by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Minimal convective activity is expected near any of the TAF sites
over the next day, so no TEMPO or PROB30 groups will be needed to
address the isolated chances. A few Coastal Prairies showers and
storms added to the momentum of the sea-breeze boundary, and this
is expected to be noticeable at AUS in the next 10 minutes or so.
Perhaps some gusts could get over 20 knots, but with no nearby
convection, will keep to the typical evening sustained speed
around 10 knots. Late tonight into Sunday morning, we expect the
low clouds and light fog to arrive and depart at the usual diurnal
times at each station with the saturated soils and light overnight
winds allowing for some more IFR conditions around daybreak.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  75  90  76 /  20  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  76  90  77 /  30  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  75  90  75 /  20  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  73  89  75 /  20  30  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  76  96  77 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  75  90  76 /  30  30  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             89  75  90  75 /  10  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  75  90  75 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  76  88  76 /  40  10  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  76  90  77 /  10  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           90  76  91  76 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...18

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

TXZ217-070030-
Maverick TX-
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Maverick
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 638 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Normandy, or 7 miles south of Quemado, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eagle Pass, Quemado, Paloma, Radar Base, Normandy, Siesta Acres,
Fabrica, Elm Creek, and Seco Mines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2873 10051 2875 10051 2876 10053 2880 10053
      2882 10055 2883 10058 2885 10057 2888 10060
      2889 10059 2891 10062 2890 10063 2892 10063
      2895 10065 2897 10018 2868 10013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 274DEG 21KT 2884 10065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO