Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances for isolated showers and storms late this
afternoon and evening today.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through the week as
an active weather pattern resumes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Mid-level ridging has finally begun to move off to our north. At the
same time an outflow boundary is noted to our north across Fort
Worth's CWA. This boundary has surged southward recently as seen
on vis satellite imagery. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form out ahead of this. Recent Mesoanalysis shows
PWATs above 1.5 and abundant MUCAPE values of up to 3000j/kg
however deep layer shear and mid level lapse rates remain weak. So
at most any storms that form could contain brief heavy downpours
and some gusty winds. A secondary area we are watching is an
inverted trough over the northern Gulf marching its way westward.
As it does so expect isolated showers and storms to form out
ahead of it mainly across the Coastal Plains and perhaps into the
I-35 Corridor this evening. Recent Hi-Res models have suggested
this activity could consolidate and make it westward all the way
to the western Hill Country. Kept pops in to account for these two
areas with most activity diminishing prior to midnight. SPC does
have very small parts of our area in a level 1 of 5 risk for
severe weather with wind being the main threat.

Temps have risen to near 90 in most areas, we should see temps
climb a few more degrees with most topping out in the low 90s
before the day ends. For tonight it will remain mild with most
staying in the low to mid 70s as clouds increase overnight and
moisture remains trapped across the area, leading to a warm and
humid evening.

Starting Wednesday ridging over the eastern US and troughing over
the western US will begin to provide an avenue for tropical
moisture to stream northward into our region. Thus our active
pattern continues as southwesterly flow aloft rears its head once
again. With a dryline/shortwave remaining over west TX and a
continued seabreeze pushing onshore into the coastal plains we
could see a renewed threat of showers and storms across these
areas however coverage should be isolated to spotty at best. With
the continued high moisture in place any stronger thunderstorms
could produce pockets of heavy rainfall. Add in the relatively
weak forcing and some spots could receive a quick half inch to
perhaps an inch if a storm stalls across an area, though most of
this would remain highly localized, meaning most would should
expect to stay dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

By Thursday an upper-level low is forecast to be positioned over
Baja California before it ejects northeastward over Mexico and
eventually moves into central to northern TX over the weekend. As it
does so, we should see chances for showers and storms begin to
increase. Several model ensembles suggest PWATs increasing to 1.8 to
perhaps 2.00 inches+ meaning any storms that do form could have the
potential to produce torrential rainfall. As such WPC does have us
in a level 1 of 4 risk for Excessive Rainfall starting thursday
and continuing each day through the weekend. It should be stressed
that these patterns are notoriously difficult to pin down
regarding individual rounds and amounts so far out in time. We
should have a better handle and clarity on this as we get closer.
but a wet pattern is expected for the long term continuing
possibly into early next week. Stay tuned and check back to the
forecast often.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Isolated to widely scattered convection now entering the coastal
plains at the time of this writing could move farther west into
and across the I-35 corridor later this evening near or after
sunset. Given this, have added PROB30 -TSRA groups into the KAUS,
KSAT, and KSSF TAFs between 00Z and 04Z. The convection could
result in temporary flight restrictions with reductions in
visibility along with gusty winds. VFR conditions return as the
activity diminishes by 04-06Z. Low clouds with MVFR ceilings are
then expected to develop and expand over the region from early
Wednesday morning through mid to late morning. VFR conditions
then return Wednesday afternoon with another opportunity of
isolated to widely scattered convection. This will be showcased
with PROB30s with -TSRA once more for the I-35 corridor sites
(KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). KDRT also has the potential for isolated
to scattered convection on Wednesday but timing and confidence
remains too low for a PROB30 group at that site. Winds remain
light to moderate from the east-northeast to east-southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  74  89  72 /  20  30  40  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  74  89  72 /  20  30  40  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  88  71 /  20  30  50  50
Burnet Muni Airport            92  71  86  70 /  20  30  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  75  92  73 /   0  10  20  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  73  88  71 /  20  40  40  40
Hondo Muni Airport             92  73  88  71 /  20  20  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  89  71 /  20  30  40  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  88  72 /  40  30  40  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  74  88  73 /  20  30  40  50
Stinson Muni Airport           93  74  89  72 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
434 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

TXZ173-022215-
Williamson TX-
434 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Williamson
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Granger, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Round Rock, Taylor, Granger, Hutto, Rices Crossing, Jonah, and
Waterloo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 9735 3045 9743 3046 9744 3045 9744
      3048 9751 3049 9751 3048 9752 3054 9767
      3075 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 037DEG 11KT 3066 9746

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

TXZ193-194-030030-
Bastrop TX-Lee TX-
643 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Bastrop
and Lee Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 643 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northwest of Fedor to near Lexington
to near Dime Box. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elgin, Giddings, Lexington, Dime Box, Fedor, Paige, Circle D-KC
Estates, Camp Swift, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Knobb
Springs, Serbin, Northrup, Blue, Old Dime Box, McDade, Cedar Hills,
Loebau, Hills, Leo, and Lincoln.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9698 3003 9702 3005 9703 3000 9707
      3015 9724 3028 9745 3042 9737 3040 9733
      3045 9717 3048 9712 3045 9688 3043 9687
      3042 9683 3036 9677 3033 9676 3031 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 046DEG 15KT 3044 9718 3037 9697 3028 9686

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

62